Normal Downswing?

[oreogod]

I pretty much know what Im doing, from both books and a friend who plays high stakes whom is helping me.

Is a 40-45BB downswing normal at all? (this is at 5/10 so 450.00 is the net loss). Ive hit downswing spurts here and there, but today was a tortourous one, it became almost laughable.

I know I played well, I got major sucks outs, it was 4-5 massive pots that did it, and I knew i had them beat until either the turn or river. (KK to A2s three twos, on the river. KK to AA twice and AK to AA with an Ace on turn, felt behind on the last one). Those last few I was just dead to start with, but those are just highlights where I did not lose as much as say to A2 or runner runner flushes who called three bets cold with 10-6 suited. The only pots I could grab were the few hands that were good and when I was able to steal the pot.


Anyway, same question if you are a good to decent player and the cards are pretty much against u and u are playing a good tight agressive game, is 45BB normal? Ive heard 100BB u should probably look at your game...but I also have beat this game for 50BB two nights running (good cards and bad players help)

Stats were:
VPIP 22 (not to loose and could have been tighter)
PFR 6
PF 2
Showdown won 20 percent (ouch)
Went to showdown 35

(Cross posted in the beginners forum)

[shant]

Are you talking about a one session downswing? If not, this thread should have some interesting replies.

45BB downswing is nothing.

[oreogod]

One session. Two tables. Cards just hit me in the face all day.

[Freakin]

Yeah seriously. 50BB is barely a big downswing. 100BB downswings are completely expected. Why do you think you're supposed to have a bankroll of 300BB? While it's statistically unlikely with perfect play, it's still certainly possible. There's recent threads from pros here who have had downswings OVER 300BB (most of those are at 6-max, where variance is higher). Think of this as the John the Baptist of downswings, which fortells of greater downswings yet to come.

Freakin

[lighterjobs]

45BB? this is definately a normal downswing. is this just one session? if you experience 50BB in six sessions in a row you are probably in trouble, but not just in one session. don't worry about it, it happens to everyone.

[ctv1116]

I played 1000 hands yesterday of 5/10 6max, had two 40BB downswings in the session, ended even.

[pokerkai]

welcome to verbal tormentville...population...you

[Guthrie]

Yes. It's the tax you pay on your upswings.

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
One session. Two tables. Cards just hit me in the face all day.

[/ QUOTE ]

This expression actually means you had really good luck.

[SmileyEH]

I had two 50BB downswings today, ended down 50BB after the second one took hold in about 300 hands. Its normal, it sucks and its why most people could never make a living doing it.

-SmileyEH

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Not when those cards are thrown by the Xman known as GAMBIT.

Is that the proper singular term, Xman?

But yeah, 45 is nothing. I finished the last Party reload and decided to try to clear some of the Full Tilt bonus and deposited 600 for 1/2. 2 sessions later and I was down to 460.

The worst was when a guy with 32s raised preflop when I had AK, then runner runnered a straight. (And raised the turn when he just had a gutshot.)

[oreogod]

Maybe...xmen team member named Gambit? No, I like yours better. And yes the cards would have felt a lot worse with his glowing cajun spice-like-ness added ontop of what happened.

And yeah, what the hell is with these guys raising gutshots? Happens all the time even upper limits (higher than 5/10). Its amazing.

Yeah, I really should have thought before posting this thread, the lowest downswing so far has been about the same. Its just when you are moving up limits and get to a new one,...Im like 450 dollars down, thats [censored]. But really in terms of bets, yes it is normal. Usually accounts for bad cards, suck outs, and the tilt-like chasing that sometimes happens.

Mon-a-me.

[AviD]

I'm sorry did you say 40-45BB swing? Dude you don't know what a downswing is yet if you suspect 40-45BB is bad. Wait until you hit a 300BB+ one, then you'll really have a mental breakdown trying to deal with it as being "normal" (which it certainly can be).

Good luck, but 40-45BB is nothing I even think about for more than a second. Happens all the time, regularly.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. It's the tax you pay on your upswings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thouhgt it was part of the "fairness policy"

[drdudley]

so we all know its possible, even probable that a 50bb is to be expected.....so why does it still fell like eating broken glass?

[Zetack]

You may have detected the sarcasm and lame attempts at humor in the replies...this is because they are all teasing you...45 BB downswings in one session are absolutely abnormal. Particularly when you look at your success in the preceding two sessions. Up 50 BB's in each? No way do you turn around and drop 45 BB's unless something is majorly wrong.

Either you are one of the unluckiest players I've ever heard of, Or you have a major major hole in your game, Or there was some cheating going on.

Immediately drop down to .50/1.00 till you figure out which one of those it is.

And post hands. Lots of hands. Particularly those miracle suck-outs against you on the river. Posting hands is what makes us all better.

Tip: the posters in the mid/high stakes forum have great advice on strategies to prevent bad beats on the river--don't ignore that valuable resource.

Good luck!

--Zetack

[Dead]

First of all it may not be a downswing.

It's likely just variance. 45 BB is really nothing and it's expected sometimes.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
Is a 40-45BB downswing normal at all? (this is at 5/10 so 450.00 is the net loss). Ive hit downswing spurts here and there, but today was a tortourous one, it became almost laughable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is normal.

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, same question if you are a good to decent player and the cards are pretty much against u and u are playing a good tight agressive game, is 45BB normal?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is normal.

[DeeJ]

Yeah it's normal, but you might just suck. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Russ McGinley]

I have to keep telling myself (and reading other horror stories on 2+2 of course) that its just a bad string of hands. I started playing 2/2 at the local cardroom and my first two sessions I finished up ~150BB. I really felt unbeatable at this level. Almost all of my big hands were holding up and I was getting paid off by 3-4 people every time.

Then I started slowly going down. Dropped about 50BB the next session, then another 20BB, then today I dropped another 50BB (goodbye profits!). Never did I think I played exceptionally well or horrifically bad. Today for instance, my best hand was ATo which went nowhere. I won 1 hand in 3 hours and could not catch playable cards, or if I had somewhat playable cards, I'd totally miss the flop.

Its a totally helpless feeling but you can't just say "well, I'm on a downswing, whats wrong with me" unless you feel you are playing badly. If you feel you are playing well (and if you are online and using PT, you can check), then there's nothing you can do but hope it goes away.

[bblock99]

A 45 BB downswing is totally normal. I'll sometimes have a downswing like that at one table. I 4-7 table 5/10 6-max, and i have 100BB downswings at least once/twice a week, usually more. The only way to tell is to log hands, man. Keep plugging and see how you turn out in the long run. Come back when you have at least 20,000 hands-if you are losing then you can start wondering about your play. If you think it's your play, post some hands.