Incredibly Weak River Fold? Analysis Please! [Archive]

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nokona13

03-11-2005, 07:04 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1405)
Button (t330)
SB (t940)
Hero (t870)
UTG (t1435)
MP1 (t2660)
MP2 (t360)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
4 folds, Button calls t50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t150) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets t50, Hero raises to t200, Button folds, SB calls t150.

Turn: (t550) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t300, SB calls t300.

River: (t1150) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets t390 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1540

Okay, not too much read on villain except he LOVES to limp in. He limped into like 1/2 - 2/3 of the pots before this, so he could have pretty much anything. But he folded routinely even to smallish bets after the flop. His only winning hand to this point was from the big blind where he flopped 333 and got paid off by two pair. So my thoughts on the flop were that this was either a blocking bet with 2 hearts or a weak bet with Ax. Should I be folding to small bet from a passive player, assuming he only bets with two pair or better? Then on the river, I'm thinking he was just being an idiot and that I can push him off a draw now. Then he calls.... How was my line here?

Oh, and I feel like this is routine, but I just want to make sure. Villain here has made various open-raises of all sizes, including min-raise, before.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3982)
Hero (t1345)
BB (t1010)
UTG (t1663)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t400, Hero raises to t1345 (All-In), 1 fold, Button calls t945.

Flop: (t2890) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2890) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2890) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2890

AtticusFinch

03-11-2005, 09:03 PM

You're getting better than 3/1 odds on the river bet, and if you fold you're down to 290 chips. I think you have to call at this point. Other than that, your line looks reasonable to me, although perhaps not exactly how I'd play it.

Given your read that there's a good chance villain has Ax, you have to worry about a straight and a better two-pair. Personally, I'd decide whether I thought he had either of these and was trapping, and either check behind or push the turn based on that. A 300 chip bet really should pot-commit you here, so you're better off just pushing.

jeffraider

03-11-2005, 09:04 PM

Hmmm. It's a confusing hand, but what is he calling your raise on the flop with? I'm thinking Ax, maybe even AX of hearts. I don't think you need to worry about the straight, unless the X in AX is a 3. I think I'd call my last 320 chips here, and probably see a busted flush draw or A6, maybe a better two pair. His flop action makes the river push smell. If you lose, that's poker and if you win, you've got 2000 chips going into level four.

The AQo hand seems standard.

nokona13

03-11-2005, 09:14 PM

Thanks for the replies!

I'm not saying this is one of those times (and looking back on this hand, I'm really convinced villain has AhXh, and my fold was WEAK after no heart fell. I'm on a huge cold streak and have been getting sucked out on like no other, so I think I'm starting to see monsters under the bed...), is there ever a situation similar to this where even though you're pot committed you just smell a rat on the river and pull out with your last couple hundred and try to climb back out?

AtticusFinch

03-11-2005, 09:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies!

I'm not saying this is one of those times (and looking back on this hand, I'm really convinced villain has AhXh, and my fold was WEAK after no heart fell. I'm on a huge cold streak and have been getting sucked out on like no other, so I think I'm starting to see monsters under the bed...), is there ever a situation similar to this where even though you're pot committed you just smell a rat on the river and pull out with your last couple hundred and try to climb back out?

[/ QUOTE ]

The conventional wisdom is no, because you should never make a bet that pot commits you. Whenever you are inclined to do so, you should just push instead. If you follow this advice, you'll never run into this type of decision.

That being said, there will be times when a particular line of play lands you here for one reason or another. I say trust your instincts, but only up to a point. If you smell a rat and have 250 left and the pot is 600, you can fold if you are confident in your read. If it's 6000, push and pray, read be damned (unless you're SURE you're dead, e.g. when you can't beat the board).

The real trick is arranging it so you can smell the rat BEFORE you're pot-committed.

Blackjack

03-11-2005, 10:08 PM

You have to call that river bet..