10-20 Coin Flip Turn Dilema

[SA125]

I say it's a coin flip because I either have the odds to draw, or I'm practically drawing dead.

Live 10-20 game that is loose. It's not overly aggressive pre-flop but, depending on how many people have limped already, you'll get anywhere from 2-5 cold callers when it is raised.

I get black JJ's UTG and limp. Decent EMP raises and means big pair or big Bway's. MP unknown, LMP calling station, Button, BB and myself call. 6 players for 6 BB's.

Flop AK3 all clubs. I check, raiser bets, unknown and I call. 3 players for 7.5 BB's.

Turn 7d. I check, raiser bets and unknown raises. 10.5 BB's.

I put the raiser on the A, K or QQ. The unknown, if he's anything like most of the other liberal pre-flop cold callers has an A, a set or a suited clubs combo of anything from Qx to connected.

If my Jc will be good for the flush, I'm a 4-1 dog and have the odds to call. If the Qc is out there, I'm a 20-1 dog and would be ATMing chips, especially if it's capped. No guts no glory?

[IsaacW]

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Live 10-20 game that is loose. It's not overly aggressive pre-flop but, depending on how many people have limped already, you'll get anywhere from 2-5 cold callers when it is raised.

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I get black JJ's UTG and limp.

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Decent EMP raises and means big pair or big Bway's. MP unknown, LMP calling station, Button, BB and myself call. 6 players for 6 BB's.

Flop AK3 all clubs. I check, raiser bets, unknown and I call. 3 players for 7.5 BB's.

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OK

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Turn 7d. I check, raiser bets and unknown raises. 10.5 BB's.

I put the raiser on the A, K or QQ. The unknown, if he's anything like most of the other liberal pre-flop cold callers has an A, a set or a suited clubs combo of anything from Qx to connected.

If my Jc will be good for the flush, I'm a 4-1 dog and have the odds to call. If the Qc is out there, I'm a 20-1 dog and would be ATMing chips, especially if it's capped. No guts no glory?

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Does "unknown" always have the flush here? Seems like two pair could be a possiblity, in which case you are drawing to the second nuts with the flush and a possible coup with two other Js still in the deck. Of course, "raiser" could 3bet and "unknown" could cap, which cuts down your odds. It might be a bit loose, but I'm not laying down here.

[bakku]

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I get black JJ's UTG and limp.

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I stopped reading. C'mon man, you've been here longer than me.

[Elizabeth]

If it's really a coin flip, and you are 20-1 half the time and 4-1 to come in half the time, then you're overall at about 12.5% -- 7:1.

The fact that it's either 4:1 or 20:1 does not make it any different on average. You can correctly weigh your chances and average them to decide.

[SA125]

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If it's really a coin flip, and you are 20-1 half the time and 4-1 to come in half the time, then you're overall at about 12.5% -- 7:1.

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I never looked at it like that. That's exactly how it was. Nice.

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The fact that it's either 4:1 or 20:1 does not make it any different on average. You can correctly weigh your chances and average them to decide.

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I think that, based on the first part of your response and not having a full read on both players, wouldn't the correct answer be you need 7-1 to call?

[SA125]

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I get black JJ's and limp UTG

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I stopped reading. C'mon man, you've been here longer than me.

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Take a look at this quote below. It's from a roy miami's response in a hand Bruiser500 posted in Mid-high about a JJ hand.

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According to HFPFAP you should raise in a tight game and limp in a loose game, ideally you want 1 or 2 opponents for a raise to be correct. He goes on to say the worst case scenario for JJ is when exactly 3 or 4 opponents see the flop with you. This would most likely occur if you called in a tight game or raised in a loose game.

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Seriously now. I had raised, there's a good possibility the MP raiser would have 3 bet and the unknown wouldn't have called. That makes the hand easier to play. But I have a very tight image, which I didn't mention, and there's a good chance he might've just coldcalled an UTG raise from me. In which case the unknown coldcalls also. So even if I did, there's an equal chance it ended up the turn decision ended up the same. Playing every good hand the same way every time from every position can't be right.

In that game, AA was cracked left and right. It held up a few times for small pots and mostly got cracked big time in big pots. When the game is loose and has lots of coldcallers you might make more money mixing up your play.

[Shillx]

This is such garbage. Maybe in a game where people play as well or better then you might you want these conditions. In a game where people are constantly willing to take the worst of it preflop (ie. the game is loose) you really need to raise this up. When hands like AT and Q9s and such will coldcall you, you should aim to get that value straight away.

Brad

[SA125]

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Does "unknown" always have the flush here? Seems like two pair could be a possiblity, in which case you are drawing to the second nuts with the flush and a possible coup with two other Js still in the deck. Of course, "raiser" could 3bet and "unknown" could cap, which cuts down your odds. It might be a bit loose, but I'm not laying down here.

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Good call. Raiser had AK and unknown had A3s. I was a 4-1 dog and layed down. Awful. Just goes to show - no guts no glory.

Funny part is I had called about 3 great draws before that and after that and missed them all. Timing is always off when running bad. But I didn't think this turn call was an easy one and wanted some feedback. Thanks.

[SA125]

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This is such garbage. Maybe in a game where people play as well or better then you might you want these conditions. In a game where people are constantly willing to take the worst of it preflop (ie. the game is loose) you really need to raise this up. When hands like AT and Q9s and such will coldcall you, you should aim to get that value straight away.

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Got it. Pre-flop equity. Appreciate the response. Just curious. What do you think of roy miami's reference to HPFAP about raising/calling with JJ?