Party $10rebuy final table - any way to fold nut str8?

[Shorty35]

Party $10 plus rebuys final table. Villan has been aggressive and I put him on a wide range preflop. Also relevant -- I was playing to win; holding on to move up a couple of spots was not my objective. Any way to avoid going broke here?

Was I wrong to put him on a draw to the nuts since he pushed? I figured a set or a pair with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif was most likely. Given that the pot offered 2.5:1, a call seemed like +EV by a pretty good margin. Anyone disagree?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button (t44208)
SB (t426129)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t336069)</font>
UTG (t144020)
MP (t202684)
<font color="#C00000">CO (t360890)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t36000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t24000.

Flop: (t63000) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (t63000) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t324290</font>, Hero calls t199469 (All-In).

River: (t686759) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t686759

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qh Ks (straight, king high).
CO has Ad 4d (flush, ace high).
Outcome: CO wins t686759. </font>

[schwza]

i like your line.

[pokerraja]

I also like your line. by the way, since when did party get rebuys?

[Shorty35]

My mistake - It was stars. Thx for replies.

[AtticusFinch]

Very tough to lay down, but I wouldn't fault you if you had. I also don't fault you for calling.

Some more info about the payout structure would be helpful in making a decision, by the way.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Very tough to lay down, but I wouldn't fault you if you had. I also don't fault you for calling.

Some more info about the payout structure would be helpful in making a decision, by the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? you would consider folding this against an "aggressive" opponent getting juicy pot odds? villain makes this play with pair+draw, 2 pair, set, etc.

[PktAcesSoWht]

I hate KQ, but I digress.

Why didn't you bet the flop to find out where you stood? I would have bet half or two-thirds of the pot here to find out some info and maybe win right there.

When the third flush card came I would have checked it if my flop bet was called, and if it was bet out, like it was here, I fold this without hesitation.

I think it was a mistake to check this flop. You gave your opponent a free card to beat you, and he caught it and then you bet into him after he had a made nut flush. His all-in bet pretty much told you he had it. I don't see anyway that you can call this hand in this situation.

[ghostwriter]

1st post be kind.

What hand does an aggressive opponent check behind on this flop? I can't think of any. His check is odd on a draw heavy board. He wouldn't play pocket 10s that way. He has to bet any flopped set to chase away the straight and flush draws, same goes for any other hand that gives him a piece. The only hand I see hero not being behind is KQ os.

When an aggressive opponent checks that flop and then pushes when the 10 d hits, I have to put him on the flush.

[Shorty35]

Here was my thinking:

payout approx:
1- 2300
2- 1700
3- 1100
4- 850
5- 625
6 - 415

I put him on a wide range preflop, but most would be better than KQ os. He could have any A suited, any PP, KQ or KJ. I am better than only one of these hands. I am out of position on the flop with only two overcards and a gutshot. It is pretty clear where I am - nowhere. I was prepared to fold to just about any bet.

I show weakness and he checks. I interpret that to mean (most likely) that he has a made hand of some type. (If you had only A high draw and your opponent showed weakness like I did and you had any level of aggression wouldnt you bet to see where you are? -- its even more true for him). I figured him for a big pair or maybe even a set at this point. The flush draw was also possible, of course, but there were many other likely possibilities. Remember, he was an aggressive player -- so the check was more suspicious to me than a bet.

I hit the gutshot and then have a tricky bet decision. I figure that I need to make may commitment to the pot clear and charge maximum for the flush draw in case it is out there so I slightly overbet. If he called (which I would expect if he had the flush), the alarm bells would have gone off and I would have been gone. But a push just reeks of "I have a real hand and a draw to the nuts dont mess with me I am the chip leader". This time, the big bet seemed to reflect vulnerability. (I was, of course, wrong)

At the turn, I figured I was about 50/50 to take down the pot based upon the prior action and his aggro history -- so 2.5:1 pot odds look good.

[Shorty35]

You were right ghost - but I describe above why I thought it more likely that he was drawing to it. Perhaps I was just overthinking the situation. Wouldnt be the first time. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[ghostwriter]

[ QUOTE ]
Here was my thinking:

payout approx:
1- 2300
2- 1700
3- 1100
4- 850
5- 625
6 - 415

I put him on a wide range preflop, but most would be better than KQ os. He could have any A suited, any PP, KQ or KJ. I am better than only one of these hands. I am out of position on the flop with only two overcards and a gutshot. It is pretty clear where I am - nowhere. I was prepared to fold to just about any bet.

I show weakness and he checks. I interpret that to mean (most likely) that he has a made hand of some type. (If you had only A high draw and your opponent showed weakness like I did and you had any level of aggression wouldnt you bet to see where you are? -- its even more true for him). I figured him for a big pair or maybe even a set at this point. The flush draw was also possible, of course, but there were many other likely possibilities. Remember, he was an aggressive player -- so the check was more suspicious to me than a bet.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I think your in trouble when he pushes. By my reasoning an aggressive opponent will bet any flop wether he hits or not especially when his opponent checks.

For example if he's holding a set of jack and hits his set on the flop there are two strikes against checking.

1. His hand is very vunerable to straight/flush draws.
2. If he starts checking his monster hands, he won't get any action when he doesn't bet.

While it's possible he isn't thinking about #2 I don't think he can ignore #1

With that said while I'm surprised he checked with the nut flush draw, I think it's really the only hand that he can afford or would even want to check in this situation.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
1st post be kind.

What hand does an aggressive opponent check behind on this flop? I can't think of any. His check is odd on a draw heavy board. He wouldn't play pocket 10s that way. He has to bet any flopped set to chase away the straight and flush draws, same goes for any other hand that gives him a piece. The only hand I see hero not being behind is KQ os.

When an aggressive opponent checks that flop and then pushes when the 10 d hits, I have to put him on the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think villain neccessarily bets out if he flops a big hand. flopped 2 pair, overpair or set will sometimes check behind here to induce a bet. villain is only facing one opponent - while i would usually bet to knock out draws, not everyone would.

there are also a variety of hands that villain can make on the turn. AT-QT (esp with a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), naked Q/K/A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T9, 78. and i'm sure there are plenty of others.

but the biggest reason is the pot odds. hero is putting in 200k to win a total of 700k - in a chip equity sense, he only needs to win the hand 28%. taking tournament issues into account, he only needs to win ~33% (i'm totally guessing on that number - didn't check icm), and i think he'll win over 50%.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I think your in trouble when he pushes. By my reasoning an aggressive opponent will bet any flop wether he hits or not especially when his opponent checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

so your conclusion is that villain didn't check?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Villan has been aggressive and I put him on a wide range preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd pop him to 100 and then push most flops.

edit: If that 'wide' range was actually 'Axs/pair/KQ-KJ' and nothing else, I'd fold PF. (Hint: That's not wide at all)

[ghostwriter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is why I think your in trouble when he pushes. By my reasoning an aggressive opponent will bet any flop wether he hits or not especially when his opponent checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

so your conclusion is that villain didn't check?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was talking about the flop.

[ghostwriter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1st post be kind.

What hand does an aggressive opponent check behind on this flop? I can't think of any. His check is odd on a draw heavy board. He wouldn't play pocket 10s that way. He has to bet any flopped set to chase away the straight and flush draws, same goes for any other hand that gives him a piece. The only hand I see hero not being behind is KQ os.

When an aggressive opponent checks that flop and then pushes when the 10 d hits, I have to put him on the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think villain neccessarily bets out if he flops a big hand. flopped 2 pair, overpair or set will sometimes check behind here to induce a bet. villain is only facing one opponent - while i would usually bet to knock out draws, not everyone would.

there are also a variety of hands that villain can make on the turn. AT-QT (esp with a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), naked Q/K/A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T9, 78. and i'm sure there are plenty of others.

but the biggest reason is the pot odds. hero is putting in 200k to win a total of 700k - in a chip equity sense, he only needs to win the hand 28%. taking tournament issues into account, he only needs to win ~33% (i'm totally guessing on that number - didn't check icm), and i think he'll win over 50%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero bets 1/3 of his stack and 30,000 more than is currently in the pot, when the 10d hits. He's representing a turned flush or straight both of which are crushing two pair, a set or a naked diamond overcard and because of pot odds villian has little to no fold equity. I don't he can come over the top with anything but a flush, without it the only thing he's beating is a bluff.

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd pop him to 100 and then push most flops.

edit: If that 'wide' range was actually 'Axs/pair/KQ-KJ' and nothing else, I'd fold PF. (Hint: That's not wide at all)

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough - but my point was that I was pretty sure that I was a dog on the flop. And since he had me covered, I wasnt interested in messing with him without a hand.

The reason I flat called preflop was purely situational; I had just taken the prior two pots -- one from him.