a 500x the BB hand at $1/$2 NL

[Kaz The Original]

If this is the wrong forum, flame me and I will go away. I understand the $$$ divisions, but I have heard say a number of times that truly deep stacked questions go to this forum. I apologize if this is incorrect.


$1/$2 NL, $100 Max. Hero is sitting with $550, Villian has $500, and Villian #2 has $150.

Hero is in BB with 7 of Hearts and 7 of Diamonds, Villian is in LP, Villian #2 is in EP.

Villian #2 opens for $20 (lol, this was almost a standard raise), Villian calls, Hero calls.

Villian was playing almost every hand, and putting massive flop bets on top pair no kicker. He was a delight to have at the table.

Flop comes K J 7 of clubs.

Hero checks (because villian is almost certainly going to call the preflop raises bet, and then hero can check raise big. There is almost no chance villian has an over set, and if villian #2 does that's poker).

Villian #2 checks and so does Villian.

Turn comes an ace. Here, I'm not quite sure what happens, although I am sure than I am in the big blind. I don't clearly remember checking, and I don't remember Villian #2 checking either, but Villian open pushes. Yes, that's right, for $450, he pushes into the $60 pot.

What is your move?

[partygirluk]

This is a 250*BB hand.

[Kaz The Original]

Right you are. My mistake. It was $100 max, which I guess is why I thought it was 500 x the BB (as I am used to 100x the BB structures).

[ansky451]

I'd definitely insta call this, (I assume the ace was not a club). If villain is a total lag as you say, hes definitely betting the flop with a hand better than yours. he wouldn't check behind with a flush i dont think on the flop, so i dont think theres much you're behind to here.

[Kaz The Original]

The ace was off suit.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The ace was off suit.

[/ QUOTE ]

then what are you thinking about?

[Kaz The Original]

I copy and pasted this from the small stakes forum. The K and J are spades, the 7 is a club. I guess this makes it an easier call?

He is putting 200x the BB into a 30x the BB pot.

Sorry this is so confusing, but I had used the Spade Icon For the K and the J and it didn't copy over. So, just to clarify, the flop is
K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

It is NOT a monotone flop.

[Wayfare]

This is not really a "deep stack" hand because you don't even play past the flop. You aren't even that deep!

Fold, and move on.

[Kaz The Original]

The money went in on the turn.

[schwza]

i'd call. if he were not a known maniac it'd be different.

[Wayfare]

I sit corrected.

However the question of "should I call a massive overbet" is so player dependent that I don't think people can give you more than a seat-of-the-pants yes or no. The pot is small, and his bet is big. You have far more information than any of us as to whether this is a profitable play.

I just don't see what you are asking. There is so little action it's not like we are deducing his hand...

[Relentless]

He could have Q 10 ....has he went all in like this before?

[Kaz The Original]

We are the only two with these types of stacks, and I've been playing against him 3 hours or so. He has definitely put other players in, but you start with 40x the BB stacks. Putting people all in is not exactly uncommon.

[neon]

given your description of him, villain would surely reraise in LP w/ AA or KK, and most likely JJ as well, right? If we can throw these hands out the window, the only hand he could be holding that you're behind is Q10, and, as Wayfare said, this is totally player dependant when it comes to calling a huuuuuge overbet like this. You said he's put people all-in before, but had he done it in this manner before, making a massive overbet? If so, did he show down the nuts? Has he been making the play often enough that it seems likely he's doing it from time to time w/ a marginal (at best) holding, if not on an out-and-out bluff? Does he often steal pots w/ healthy bets in position when it gets checked to him twice?

if this is the first time you've seen him make an overbet like this, i wouldn't be at all surprised if he showed you Q10. you said you went for a CR b/c you were "sure" he would bet the flop; isn't an oesd exactly the type of hand most players will check behind w/ in position in a raised pot?

you know better than we do . . .

[turnipmonster]

call and spike a 7.

[Kaz The Original]

He was not the preflop raiser. As for the rest, I had not seen him bluff big before, but had seen him raise crazily, and bet big with top pair no kicker ($50 on the flop big). This was definitely uncharted territory.

[Kaz The Original]

I called, he had Q10, river blank.

[Wayfare]

He pulled a great turn "move of honor".

Before you decided to call, did you sit back and think about the action? Did you think about likely hands that would make this move that you beat vs. beat you?

I really have to say this is an extremely easy fold if you can separate yourself from the heat of the hand. QT is a hand that players will play for a raise, and it seems pretty clear from the action that he is looking for a call with that huge overbet. He's not sticking in $450 to win $60 without a supermonster. If he is, you will have another shot to take his money.

[neon]

given that, i think i fold here. preflop aggression coupled w/ big continuation bets on the flop is a totally different animal than massive overbets on later streets. yes, there's a decent possibility you're ahead here, but is it worth risking your whole stack to find out? you said that pfr's 10XBB open raise was "pretty standard," so won't you be able to find a better spot to get your stack in? if i haven't seen this type of bet from villain before, i tuck my tail between my legs and fold . . . /images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Kaz The Original]

Why would I want to find a "Better" spot?

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would I want to find a "Better" spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

because there's $60 in the pot, u have ~$480 behind, the only other deep stack in the game just went all-in, overbetting the pot by more than $400, you have yet to see him make a play similar to this, and for all you know, this could be his move with the stone cold nuts. and judging by your description of the game (routine preflop raises to 10XBB called in two spots?), it seems like there will be other nice-sized pots--and "better spots"--in which to go to the felt.

just my opinion, dude.

[Kaz The Original]

My point is, my move is either +EV or -EV. There is no need to find a better spot (now, if there were tons of
fish with 500$ stacks, that might make some sense).

Just pointing out a pet peeve of mine that people are afraid to take +EV situations.

After all, I can always rebuy.

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is, my move is either +EV or -EV. There is no need to find a better spot (now, if there were tons of
fish with 500$ stacks, that might make some sense).

Just pointing out a pet peeve of mine that people are afraid to take +EV situations.

After all, I can always rebuy.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hear u, Kaz, but i don't think it has anything to do w/ being "afraid." it has to do w/ encountering an an abberation in villain's betting pattern--one that for maaannny opponents means exactly what it did in this instance: da nuts. if you had seen villain make this move before, with something other than the (near) nuts, then completely different ballgame. and yes, you can rebuy, (and to be honest, in your shoes, in the heat of the moment, i likely call there as well), i'm just saying, from an objective point of view--+EV or no--i fold your hand in this spot absent a read on what villain's overbet means . . .

[Kaz The Original]

Yes, I'm not objecting to your advice to fold or not, just your usage of the line "find a better spot", which has no place in ring games.

[soah]

When you have five times the max buy-in it definitely makes sense to look for better spots. If you lose you have to start over at $100.

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
When you have five times the max buy-in it definitely makes sense to look for better spots. If you lose you have to start over at $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

and kaz, i'm not a math guy and therefore not nearly as up to snuff as most posters on the boards in terms of +EV, but i'll assume you're defining this as a +EV situation because, of the range of hands villain may have, your set is ahead often enough to have a positive mathematical expectation if you call his all-in bet here. (that range, i'm postulating, would not include AA,KK,JJ, as villain would have repopped preflop, but would include any and all possible combos of aces up, kings up, QT, a weird two pair, or maybe even a weak ace).

Given that range of hands, it makes sense that this is a +EV situation.

What if, however, we were able to say that while it is possible villain holds any of these hands, he is far more likely to have QT in this situation b/c we have never seen this type of overbet from him before and for many opponents, a large overbet signals the nuts. This would have to change the math rather significantly, right?

The point i'm trying to make (and perhaps am not making very well) is that while EV considerations dictate that a call in a certain spot has a positive expectation in the long run against villain's potential range of holdings, if we can determine, through our read of villain's bet sizes and patterns, that one of his holdings (which happens to be the only one that beats us) is far more likely in this specific instance, hero can "pick a better spot" ( /images/graemlins/wink.gif) when his EV is also positive to risk his entire stack . . .

i could be waaaay off here tho . . .

[Kaz The Original]

I am not saying calling is +EV, just that if it is, I should call.

A)", he is far more likely to have QT in this situation b/c we have never seen this type of overbet from him before and for many opponents", B) " a large overbet signals the nuts"

If B is true, than A is true.

If his holding Q10 is significantly likely, than it is -EV to call.

My point is, I care only if it is +EV or -EV.

[warlockjd]

I vote for an easy call. I think he has 2 pr and if he has a straight you have outs.

[Manimal]

Kaz, I believe that the key point to the idea of finding better spots is the ability of the villain. If there's a chance you can double through him in the not-too-distant future, you want to lay down your hand in situations like this.

The reason is, though this may be a profitable situation if taken in isolation, you may be passing up a more +EV situation opportunity that would only be available if you have a stack greater than $500. Of course, if you think that this opponent won't give you such an opportunity, then you must consider this in isolation.