15-30 Bellagio hand

[M.B.E.]

I returned from Las Vegas a couple of days ago, where I had the pleasure of meeting a few 2+2ers. I made notes of a few hands I played there.

I have 76o in the SB. There are two limpers and I call $5. BB raises and we all call. Four of us take the flop with $120 in the pot.

FLOP: J 5 4 rainbow

I check, BB bets, first limper calls, and second limper (a tight player in late position) raises. I cold call with my open-ender. BB calls and the other guy folds. Three of us see the turn.

TURN: Jc 5h 4s 5c

I bet out. BB folds and the tight player calls.

The river is the 7c, giving me a pair and putting a possible backdoor flush on board. What is my best play? Results later.

[budman]

I think you have no choice but to bet. If raised back, throw it in. It doesn't sound like your middle pair has a shot at taking down the pot, and if you check, then the other player should take a shot at you. Then you will have to fold.

IMO the only way you can win this pot is by betting out on the river.

I REALLY like how you bet out on the turn when the second five hit. I know that would scare me to death and maybe even put me off best hand. As for the river, I think you absolutely must bet. It's the only way to win the pot. Besides, if your opponent mucks, then you don't have to show yours cards and that's a nice mental edge.

PokerPrince

[Ginogino]

M.B.E.:
You end up headsup against a tight player in late position. What kinds of hands would he have raised with pre-flop? If he'd have raised with pocket pairs through, what, 8 or better or KQ or suited facecards (buying the button), then maybe he's got something like JT (suited or not) or small pocket pairs. If it's something with a J (would he raise the flop with JT?), you lose. He certainly would have raised you on the turn with 55 or 44. He is unlikely to have 77 because you have one. If he has 22, 33 or 66, you win. It's possible he'd have limped with a higher pocket pair than 7's, though that seems unlikely.

All told, I think he has a better hand than yours. I'd check-call (who knows, he might have worse than you and bet).

[Gabe]

Usually betting out on the turn here, would not cause a good hand to fold. Check raising may have. As for betting the river, you may be able to get someone with the same hand as you to fold. I think that is the best you can hope for, but who knows?

A key question: how well do you play? Assuming you play well, and your good opponent knows this, your lead on the turn shouldn't scare him much. why? because you wouldn't have cold-called the flop with a 5. You could have a winner on the end, but I doubt it. My guess is he has a pair of 8s or 9s, or J-big suited, though he could have KQ or maybe KT or AT. In any case, betting the river is wrong, 'cause he won't call with no pair, and will definitely call with that or better. Interesting post-curious to see the result.

Okay, with all due respect, you guys are all nuts. The Big blind raised preflop, and a tight player raised him on a 45J flop. He then called your "out of nowhere" bet with a 5 hit on the turn. Although he may not have it, he's a strong favourite to be in possession of a jack. I know it's hard to believe, with all the reponses talking of KT, KQ, 88, etc., but the man most likely has a jack. If he has a jack, I can't imagine him folding. You can't pay me to bet this river with 67. Well, you can, but you'd have to pay me a big bet. That said, the results may indicate you bet and he folded, or he folded a jack face up, or something like that. If he did, he's a moron. Or maybe the tight player also had 67. Then he's not all that tight. Bottom line is I think that a river bet is a horrible, horrible, play.

[mikelow]

I would have folded preflop after the BB raised, but betting on the river is the only way to win the hand.

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
You end up headsup against a tight player in late position. What kinds of hands would he have raised with pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually he raised on the flop, not pre-flop (it was the BB who raised pre-flop).

[M.B.E.]

To recap, the final board was:

Jc 5h 4s, 5c, 7c

I had 76 in the SB, with one opponent left at the river. I checked and called when he bet. He had AJ (no big surprise) and won.

I disagree with those who said I should have bet the river. Given how he played his hand, my opponent's most likely holding was a jack, probably with an ace or king kicker. He's not going to fold that for one more bet on the river. (The only reason to bet the river would be to make him fold if he happens to have TT, 99, or 88, but any of those hands he would probably have laid down on the flop or the turn.)

Should I even have called on the river after my opponent bet? Perhaps not. There was some possibility, however, that he held AK or AQ, which I could beat, or 87 or 76, which tied me.

I like Gabe's suggestion of check-raising the turn. This would have been the best way to play the hand, although I didn't think of it at the time.

Should I have folded before the flop when the BB raised? I usually call with a hand like 76o from the blinds for one more bet if the pot is four-way or higher. The decision is close, I'm sure, and Mikelow may be right that folding is a better play.