Plays for Week 4

[TAFKAn]

Please remind me never to bet totals again.

First, I'm going to pass on some games I initially thought were good. For one, New England/San Diego game. It could be trouble, although I believe New England SHOULD win handily, there's too many things that can go wrong. I'm going to pass on the Denver/Baltimore game after the cautionary words from Al. I have been CLEANING UP this year thanks mostly to the input from Big Al, WildBill, and others on this board who have steered me away from some games I initially thought were good. (Although I was all lined up to play Carolina heavy last week and instead went with a bet on the shoe in! No biggie though, it doesn't even begin to eat into the amount of money I've won playing with Big Al's picks! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif ) Thanks to all for their help on this board.

Ok, here we go.

1. The shoe in of course. 'nuff said. Let's move on

2. My strong play of the week is CLE +6. This team has a good chance to win outright, much less cover. Not only that, but Cleveland is perfectly situated to implement the Patented Anti-Pittsburgh Technique as developed by the Pats and Raiders: Spread the field and make the 3-4 defense stop you. And of course, as I'm fond of saying, there's always a good chance Kordell will lose the game by himself. The real big problem for PIT in my mind is that they haven't been able to run the ball worth a damn. Their offensive line is extremely well coached, so I think it must be the Bus. He's getting old. He's at that point in a back's career where the drop can be fast and precipitous.

3. Jacksonville -3 vs. Jets. I feel the Jets are a very bad football team right now. I got incredibly lucky betting on them in week 1, and I happened to watch the entire game. I saw that they had big problems, especially since they couldn't run with C. Martin vs. a weak Buffalo run defense. After that, I've unloaded on both of their opponents. I will probably not bet this game heavy but I think there's value. It's still early in the season so they have Fred Taylor, and Patrick Johnson appears to be replacing McCardell nicely. Although the Jags D is suspect, it's vs. the Jets so no worries there. Plus, the Jags are one of those teams that nobody seems to consider seriously but they are clearly a 7 to 9 win team and should be able to handle the woeful Jets pretty easily right now. If they can shutdown KC in Arrowhead, what will they do at home vs one of the worst offenses in the league????

4. Seattle -3 vs Minnesota. I like this game more and more and I am not going to give up on Dilfer after merely losing two close games. This is the week for Alexander to open it up I believe. Everyone has had a good day on the ground v. Minnesota so far. In fact, everyone has had a good day in the air v. Minnesota too. And Minnesota.... what can you say. This is a team waiting to implode if not simply roll over and die. Don't forget that Holmgren knows this team well. One more thing to note. The NYG passing game had been very strong until they met Seattle. And Seattle has shown steady improvement since the opening debacle at Oakland. I expect Culpepper to struggle again this week vs. Seattle's defense.

HELP: Somebody please talk me out of playing the Green Bay/Carolina over 43. I've drooling over it but have been burned on totals too many times. Green Bay D is playing awful and has even more injuries now than last week. But of course, Green Bay's offense alone should put up around 30 in this game. It looks so good! Tell me why I'm wrong!

Lastly, I may pull the trigger on one more. Cincy +7 vs. Tampa. Still looking into it. Will post my analysis if I go for it.

Good luck this week to everyone.

[mikelow]

I agree--stay off totals. As for your sides, I would agree with
all of them (for now).

[Wildbill]

Hmmm...well since you want my input.

1. I was on the same side as the shoe in, but this week I don't know. I think the world is expecting the Panthers to fall like a house of cards, but maybe we should give them the benefit of the doubt and just wait to see it happen first. One of the major concepts in stock trading is even if you see a stock that you think is overpriced and ripe to turn around, still wait until it actually does and gives you a signal it is heading that way. This team hasn't given the signal that they are collapsing so trying to time their downfall could be dangerous. While they haven't beaten any teams of note, they are playing a game of keeping the scoring low and trying to capitalize on opponents mistakes. Pack makes plenty of mistakes and they are getting generous points so I would be very careful with this one. Besides, nothing against Big Al, but someday he is due to lose two in a row, if the same team did it to him that would follow form, most people in sports betting have bad streaks all caused by misvaluing or misjudging a team. Not saying he is off on the Panthers, just saying its possible.

2. I like the Browns a little bit, but not much. Steelers had a week off to stew for this one while Brownies were getting lucky. While the world seems to think the Steelers can't run the ball, remember its only been two games and further it was two games they trailed most of the way. It doesn't matter who you are, if you fall behind in the NFL you aren't going to run the ball much. If the Steelers get a lead and maintain it I think they will have a big rushing day. The line is too high though, the Browns are nicely matched up for the spread offense and that makes them a live dog indeed. Just not feeling that strongly about it as some of my expectation would come from backdoor cover I think.

3. I am not ready to sell out the Jets yet. Both of their losses were games that just got out of control late. While they weren't all that competitive in either, they weren't as bad as the final score indicates I think. This team thrives on being underrated and will always be dangerous as a dog I think. However, much as I said with the Panthers I am not going to call for a reversal yet here, I will wait until I see a good effort from the Jets before backing them.

4. Don't want to touch this game. Either team could get blown out. The Hawks aren't getting anything done on offense and its maybe time for Holmgren to change his stripes. West Coast offense is so overrated, you still need a good line and power game to get 6 points, I see so many teams using this strategy right now struggling, even Denver isn't really firing well with it despite their 3-0 record. The Niners are looking weak offensively, the Cards are terrible with this similar philosophy, and Seattle just is terrible with it. You get yards but you don't get the crucial scores you need with it. So asking a team to cover laying points doesn't look good to me, but I do agree seems like the Vikings are on the verge of blowing up. We shall see how they react to the Moss situation this week.

Don't bet the total simply because the Panthers will try to do what they can to keep it a low scoring game. Lamar Smith is a prime candidate for this, he takes the ball 30 times without a big run, but just enough to get slow first downs. Peete doesn't go for the big play. Their defense gives up some yards, but waits for you to make a mistake, whether it be a turnover or a dropped/missed pass on 3rd down forcing a kick. In fact I am considering an under bet myself.

[Clarkmeister]

I don't want to commit the heresy of disagreeing with the Shoe, but I think you hit this one right on Bill. Carolina is playing well, and while they lose Musin at WR, GB isn't the healthiest bunch either. The Cats are playing good team ball, and their D has been impressive. GB meanwhile is IMO horribly overrated this year with a horrible D and mediocre WR talent. In any case, I don't bet on a team with no D going against a team with a decent one. I hold Al's picks in the highest regard, but I think the game is a pass, or a play on Carolina.