Semi-Deep Live 3/5 - Can I Value Bet This River?

[fimbulwinter]

MP 1 (400) is a total donkey. way loose passive with spurts of illogical agression. one hand i held TPTK with A9s and he pushed all-in on me with pocket 4's unimproved on the flop for like $400 into a $20 pot. he said "I'll show if you do" and couldn't believe i folded the hand.

MP 2 (700) is a flashy WPT wannabe. checkraises a lot and tries to look cool for the people railbirding the game. he's maybe 20 and is stuck maybe 5 buyins at this point.

CO (500) is tighite kid, but somewhat agressive (we've been chatting between hands) who 90% of the time folded a PP that failed to set up here, but he's unimportant.

BB (2.3K) is a big dude who is either on a rush or good, but he's played very agressively and hasnt shown down many hands. I respect him, but mostly because he has me covered.

I'm (2.1K) on button with KT/images/graemlins/heart.gif and a medium table image. probably somewhat tight and agressive as i've been running pretty cold card wise in the late seats so i haven't been playing like such a lag.

200NL, 3/5 blinds, table pretty laggy.

Preflop:
MP1 limps, MP2 limps, CO limps, I make it $15 (standard for me), BB calls, all call.

I see this as a value raise. all hands that beat me, except maybe KJ, get raised by all players in the pot. we're probably looking at a bunch of sooooooooooooooooooooteds at this point. And yes, this is my standard raise with position, and yes, i did intend them to call. I was trying to knock out the blinds and tie them to dominated hands by pumping the pot a bit. I raise a ton of hands in this situation, so im not folding anyone out or giving any info away about my holdings.

Flop (75): Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif

check, MP1 bets 40, MP2 calls, CO folds, I call, BB calls.

I considered raising here, but MP1 may shove with Qx and i don't want that. His bet means a J or Q. also, i didnt want to get creamed by BB in case he woke up (he loved to C/R from the blind).

Turn (235): Q/images/graemlins/club.gif

checked around

Probably would have been a good place for a semibluff. but maybe not. I really have no idea where everyone is; it's possible someone has QJ, but nobody seemed too excited when that card came off. I think i could make MP1 lay down a J, but i really don't know what MP2 and BB hold, but it's probably (maybe?) shared flush draws from how they were looking for the turn card.

River (235): 9/images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to me, I...?

so it's one card off a striaght and i don't want to get anyone all-in here but i may because i know MP1 might get loco with a Q or T if i bet. Also, I know that things like QJ, Q9, Q8 etc. all get played if they're sooted, so i might still be beat. I'm pretty sure BB doesnt have anything and i still dunno where MP2 is, but im hoping he has a T in his maybe flush draw so that i can get some value out of my striaght. so what's the plan? who bets, how much and why?

multiway pots make my head hurt,

fim

[chuddo]

Bet. not often does a raised pot, that was bet on the flop and called by 4 players, be checked through on the turn and the river to the button. i don't think a boat is out to beat you, and that you can get value out of someone holding a 10 or Q. I bet 150 or so and expect it to be folded around, as no one even through out a blocking bet.

[neon]

fim-

you have yet to show any strength in this hand w/ the exception of preflop, so I really can't see anyone checking a house on the river here, esp. w/ four to a str8 on the board.

you also said that your image at this point is "somewhat tight," so I really tend to think you're good here, unless MP1 is the type of donkey who vastly overplays marginal hands and slowplays monsters. I'd tend to put MP1 on either a J or a Q here that missed a CR on the turn and isn't betting the river b/c there's now four to the str8 on the board.

i think you can pretty safely value bet here, maybe $150-$175, and expect to get called by hands w/ a Q or a 10. Obviously, if BB wakes up and plays back at you, then it gets tricky, but again, i really don't see anyone checking a boat around on the river here with a reasonably healthy pot and the likelihood that someone will have something to call w/.

Hope it worked out for you . . .

-neon.

[Wayfare]

With this action, I have to bet $200 here. If you are scared of playing that deep with BB, to the point of not betting the "second" nuts on a board which easily makes the third nuts, that is a significant problem.

I definately like taking the free card on the turn due to the fact you probably don't want to stick in a $200 bluff into a multiway pot, with so little fold equity on that street and the very real possibility that someone will shove in on the turn.

I would call any and all raises on the river except a very large one from BB.

I cannot see a full boat checking this river to you for fear of missing tons of value. Especially since you checked the turn. I can see tons of worse hands (including all players with one card straights) calling your bet on the end due to the fear you are simply trying to buy it or avoid a chop.

I hope this is a question of how much to bet and not whether to bet at all. If you think you can get overcalls with $150 but not with $200 then do that.

[fimbulwinter]

I dogged it cos im a bitch and didn't want to fold the best hand if one of the monkeys decided a lone Q was the nuts and got all-in-y on me. Should have bet willing to call that all-in, except from BB obviously.

worst part is that someone (not bb) had a Q and probably would have paid off at least 100, if not more. ah well, more to work on and more money to not miss in the future.

i think it was MP1 had Q4s, MP2 had J9 and BB had the Acehigh flush draw.

bleck.

fim