Call or Fold?

[LotsOfOuts69]

SnG, 5 handed, top 3 cash, (usual party payouyt structure), stack sizes are:
UTG (2300)
UTG+1(2300)
CO(1700)
SB(600)
You-BB(1100)

Blinds are 150-300:
You hold 7-2 off suit, folded to SB who pushes...

If you call and win, you have 1700 4 handed
call and lose new shortstack with 500 plus posting 150 SB
Fold and you still have 800
You....?

[spentrent]

1) Are those the stack sizes after the blinds are posted?

2) If so, do you actually want the short stack to be 750?

[Apathy]

Your getting 3-1 and its not even the bubble yet...call

Is this even close?

[swarm]

I don't know... 7-2 off, can't get worse. You have the pot odds but if you lose you are dead as you will only have 350 after posting your SB.

This might be the one time I fold and I hate folding this. Reason being is that I will have 650 in the SB and will push any decent hand.

Do you want to end your tourney on 7-2off? Pot odds are one thing but crippling your self down to intensive care with it is another.

[eastbay]

My feeling is that it's fairly close, and depends on the players to your right and left, as well as the table action.

If you're pretty sure SB will push any two here, you're probably correct to call.

If SB is a real tightie who would rather fold himself into the grave than push any two AND the table is passive enough that you are likely to get an opportunity on the next hand to push AND you expect you could get a fold to an all-in for 800 chips over his blind of 300, folding and pushing the next hand may be a better option.

In any case, I think this is one of those spots where it just doesn't matter all that much unless something unusual is going on.

By default, unless the table is particularly passive and tight, I think you have to call.

eastbay

[microbet]

ICM
folding = .117
calling and winning = .226
calling and losing = .0762

I tried a few different ranges of hands and they all come out to about 33% chance to win

.33 x .226 + .67 x .0762 = .126

So, ICM likes calling.

For me, that just confirms it. I wanted to check because a few minutes ago I was in almost the same spot with 74 and called.

You have some FE on the next hand, but not a lot and 3 players need to fold to you for you to use it.

[valenzuela]

it can get worse try 32o( which I would call with anyway)you defenetly arent dead with 500 chips anyway( is the sb currently dead) you have 3 to 1 odds...you have to call in most situations.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM
folding = .117
calling and winning = .226
calling and losing = .0762

I tried a few different ranges of hands and they all come out to about 33% chance to win

.33 x .226 + .67 x .0762 = .126

So, ICM likes calling.

For me, that just confirms it. I wanted to check because a few minutes ago I was in almost the same spot with 74 and called.

You have some FE on the next hand, but not a lot and 3 players need to fold to you for you to use it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Expanding on that a bit (with an arbitrary choice of $50 buy-in):

Buy-in: $50+5
Players remaining: 5
Blinds: 150/300
Hero picked up 72o @ BB

Hero, <font color="red">Pusher</font>

Stacks (before posting):
2300(CO+1) 2300(CO) 1700(B) <font color="red">600(SB)</font> 1100(BB)

Hero puts pusher on any two and wins 34.6% of the time if he calls.

If Hero calls...
and wins: 2300(CO+1) 2300(CO) 1700(B) <font color="red">0(SB)</font> 1700(BB) -&gt; 22.6% / $112.93
and loses: 2300(CO+1) 2300(CO) 1700(B) <font color="red">1200(SB)</font> 500(BB) -&gt; 7.6% / $38.11

Overall, calling has a $EV of 12.8% / $63.98

Or, Hero could fold:
2300(CO+1) 2300(CO) 1700(B) <font color="red">900(SB)</font> 800(BB) -&gt; 11.7% / $58.62

If Pusher is assumed to have any pair or any face card:

Hero puts pusher on 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+ and wins 30.4% of the time if he calls.

Overall, calling has a $EV of 12.2% / $60.86

In which case it's getting fairly close. However, we may want to consider discounting our fold equity by computing it after blind posting on the next hand. This pushes us back strongly towards calling.

eastbay