A-K question

[kingstalker]

I have read the probablity of flopping a Ace or king is 32 percent if you hold A-K, but since there is a 6/50 chance on the first card,a 6/49 on the second, and a 6/48 on the third, woulnt that be 12+12+12.5 =36.5?

[AngusThermopyle]

1. You are counting flops like AK7 twice, and AKK three times.

2. Quick way to see you method has a problem, imagine dealing out 9 cards instead of 3. Your method will have an answer of over 100% that there will be an A or K in those 9 cards.

[elitegimp]

A better way is to figure out the probability you _don't_ flop a pair, and subtract that from 1. This works because to not flop a pair, you need card 1 to _not_ be an A or K, AND card 2 to _not_ be an A or K, AND card 3.

Anytime your situation has the word OR in it (card 1 is an A or K, OR card 2 is...) you have to figure out what to do when both card 1 AND card 2 meet the criteria.