Who three bets the river?

[MRBAA]

Party 2-4, I have TT in MP. One loose limper to me, I raise, button calls, both blinds call, limper calls. Pot is $19 and five us see a flop of:

JcJh9h

SB checks, BB who is very loose but only moderately aggressive bets it, limper calls, I call one getting an immediate 13-1, button calls, SB calls. Pot is $28 and the turn comes:

JcJh9h Td

Me have full house. Now the SB bets, the BB raises, the limper calls, I three bet, the button folds, the SB calls, the BB caps and we all call. Pot is $91 and the river comes:

JcJh9h Td 8c

SB bets it, BB raises and I think for a minute and...

[sfer]

If the BB is a 6 or higher on the donk-o-meter I 3-bet. 2/4 donks love their trips to the point of blindness to the rest of the board, regardless of the transparency of the SBs hand. If the BB is in any way sane I expect to see a bigger boat and call.

[chief444]

I'd call. You're likely behind J's full. But you are ahead of SB's straight.

[Stefan Prodan]

Hands the button would probably play this way until the river:

AJ-J8, Jx.

You're ahead of all of them but JT, J9, and J8. Collectively you're much more likely to be ahead of trip jacks, high kicker.

After the river action, I'd say you're looking an idiot playing AJ-QJ or Jx this way maybe even up to 40% of the time, so you should raise.

Remember that since you are guaranteed to beat SB unless he is slowplaying four of a kind or something, you only need to be beating BB more than 33% of the time for a raise here to be correct if SB will call, and he will almost certainly call or raise if he made his straight. You're risking one or two more bets depending on the action to win probably two to four more. I think you're beating him more than 1/3 of the time, so I raise.

Oh also for the record I don't like the flop call. I think 13-1 isn't enough for your two outs with 1 out's worth of backdoor straight draw which may not even be good if you're already behind to a gutshot. Maybe I'd feel differently if you mentioned one of your hearts was a ten, but probably not.

[MRBAA]

Really a great analysis, Stephan.

On the flop, thought I had only 2 outs, but I also thought I might get lots of action if i hit AND that there was some chance a 9 was betting, hence my crying call on the flop. Had the limper raised, I'd have folded.

On the river, I wimpily called, since the BB seemed sane. Like everyone else I put the SB on a str8.

BB had AJh, for the flopped trips, top kicker with nut flush draw and MHWG.

[meep_42]

I think with SB in there, I call and get his overcall. 3-betting here may not net you anything extra (SB may fold) except to re-open the betting to a better hand, where you'll lose more. I'm not sure Villain caps with anything that you beat, but if he's a donk, then by all means.

-d

[irisheyes]

I am a 2/4 player, and there are very few times I would not 3-bet this. As said above, most of our fellow players are oblivious to the board (especially when you're holding a pocket pair). You're probably going to have two people paying to see your FH. Unless I've pegged villain as a very solid post-flop player, I am 3-betting every time.

[Stefan Prodan]

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Really a great analysis, Stephan.

On the flop, thought I had only 2 outs, but I also thought I might get lots of action if i hit AND that there was some chance a 9 was betting, hence my crying call on the flop. Had the limper raised, I'd have folded.

On the river, I wimpily called, since the BB seemed sane. Like everyone else I put the SB on a str8.

BB had AJh, for the flopped trips, top kicker with nut flush draw and MHWG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're probably right that you would get intense action if you get a ten, but you have to count on being able to collect about 10.5 more small bets throughout the hand, which is probably quite attainable, but you also have to dodge a jack or nine on the end which really isn't much to worry about but is worth mentioning I guess. All in all it might be slightly +EV now that I think about it, it all really depends on how much the BB likes his set, and whether you get a ten of hearts. That is, if the flush card falls, it may subdue him into not giving you the implied odds you needed, depending on the player.

[chief444]

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Remember that since you are guaranteed to beat SB unless he is slowplaying four of a kind or something, you only need to be beating BB more than 33% of the time for a raise here to be correct if SB will call

[/ QUOTE ]
You aren't 100% ahead of SB, but probably >90%. You aren't 100% positive SB will call a 3-bet with whatever worse hand he's likely to have but probably >90%. You open yourself up to a cap from BB with better hands. So I like to be more than 33% sure here. Closer to 45-50%. Based on the results BB is completely oblivious to the board but I don't think that's as common as you seem to. Not that unusual but I wouldn't make that assumption on my first hand against him.

[Argus]

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Really a great analysis, Stephan.

On the flop, thought I had only 2 outs, but I also thought I might get lots of action if i hit AND that there was some chance a 9 was betting, hence my crying call on the flop. Had the limper raised, I'd have folded.

On the river, I wimpily called, since the BB seemed sane. Like everyone else I put the SB on a str8.

BB had AJh, for the flopped trips, top kicker with nut flush draw and MHWG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're probably right that you would get intense action if you get a ten, but you have to count on being able to collect about 10.5 more small bets throughout the hand, which is probably quite attainable, but you also have to dodge a jack or nine on the end which really isn't much to worry about but is worth mentioning I guess. All in all it might be slightly +EV now that I think about it, it all really depends on how much the BB likes his set, and whether you get a ten of hearts. That is, if the flush card falls, it may subdue him into not giving you the implied odds you needed, depending on the player.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing is I don't see why you're counting outs, most of the time hero's hand is good here and a loose player feels like a smarty pants with A9 or T9. There was a poll some time ago where people were talking about having 77 or something like it, and would you rather the flop came 339, or 993. You prefer 993, because people are more likely to play nines, so you're less likely against trips. Do you see why? I probably raise this hand, and if I smooth call it's to wait and see that a scare card doesn't come, not to hit my set.

[Stefan Prodan]

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Remember that since you are guaranteed to beat SB unless he is slowplaying four of a kind or something, you only need to be beating BB more than 33% of the time for a raise here to be correct if SB will call

[/ QUOTE ]
You aren't 100% ahead of SB, but probably >90%. You aren't 100% positive SB will call a 3-bet with whatever worse hand he's likely to have but probably >90%. You open yourself up to a cap from BB with better hands. So I like to be more than 33% sure here. Closer to 45-50%. Based on the results BB is completely oblivious to the board but I don't think that's as common as you seem to. Not that unusual but I wouldn't make that assumption on my first hand against him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, well, I did a little math. Assuming the following:

If BB has a full house, he will cap. If the SB has you beat, he will cap. So, we can assume that if you are behind x% of the time simply to the button or 10% of the time to the SB, you will lose 4 BB no matter what when you're behind here if you raise. If anyone has you beat, it will be capped.

Let's also assume that of those times SB has a straight or something that you beat, he will fold 10% of the time if you raise, and that if BB has only a set, he will simply call your 3-bet 50% of the time.

Let's assume if you just call, the same probabilities apply to if you're ahead or not, but let's also assume that the SB will fold 0% of the time for simplicity's sake and because the chance of him folding to one bet on this river is negligible anyway.

So, to solve for X when raising, 0 = x(.1(-4)+.9(.1(4.5)+.9(7)) - 4(1-x)
Or, 5.675x - 4 + 4x.
So, 4/9.675 = x = .387. So you have to be ahead of the BB 38.7% of the time or more for raising to be a +EV play. Note that if you're behind the SB 10% of the time, then you're ahead of the field 34.83% of the time overall, and that's enough to be profitable. You can't count the full 10% since about 7% of that time, you're behind both and it doesn't even matter that you're behind the SB.

Calling is a lot easier to calculate, assuming no one is folding here to one bet, and that you aren't folding to two.

Here, 0 = x(.9(4) + .1(-3.5))+(1-x)(.9(-2)+.1(-3.5)),
or x(3.25)+(1-x)(-2.15), or 0 = 5.4x - 2.15, so x = 2.15/5.4 or .399.

That is to say, you need to have a winning hand MORE often for calling to be correct than for raising to be correct, and therefore, raising is the correct play.

Maybe some math-inclined people can back me up on this, or point out any mistakes I've made. I can also say where each number comes from, but I have to go eat now.

[Stefan Prodan]

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[ QUOTE ]
Really a great analysis, Stephan.

On the flop, thought I had only 2 outs, but I also thought I might get lots of action if i hit AND that there was some chance a 9 was betting, hence my crying call on the flop. Had the limper raised, I'd have folded.

On the river, I wimpily called, since the BB seemed sane. Like everyone else I put the SB on a str8.

BB had AJh, for the flopped trips, top kicker with nut flush draw and MHWG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're probably right that you would get intense action if you get a ten, but you have to count on being able to collect about 10.5 more small bets throughout the hand, which is probably quite attainable, but you also have to dodge a jack or nine on the end which really isn't much to worry about but is worth mentioning I guess. All in all it might be slightly +EV now that I think about it, it all really depends on how much the BB likes his set, and whether you get a ten of hearts. That is, if the flush card falls, it may subdue him into not giving you the implied odds you needed, depending on the player.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing is I don't see why you're counting outs, most of the time hero's hand is good here and a loose player feels like a smarty pants with A9 or T9. There was a poll some time ago where people were talking about having 77 or something like it, and would you rather the flop came 339, or 993. You prefer 993, because people are more likely to play nines, so you're less likely against trips. Do you see why? I probably raise this hand, and if I smooth call it's to wait and see that a scare card doesn't come, not to hit my set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right, my bad. I was too wrapped up in worrying about the river raise and doing the math I just posted that I wasn't really thinking about the flop comment too throughly.

[meep_42]

I think that SB folds a straight here more than 10% of the time to 2 cold.

However, my river aggression leaves a bit to be desired and I can see the case for 3-betting here.

-d

[Stefan Prodan]

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I think that SB folds a straight here more than 10% of the time to 2 cold.

However, my river aggression leaves a bit to be desired and I can see the case for 3-betting here.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

When I get back from eating I'll tinker with it and see if I can find out how often the SB needs to fold to make calling better than raising. Maybe someone else can do it for me while I'm gone. That would be nice /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MRBAA]

Well, I think the flop call is good but thin, and I think raising is interesting, but risky into this many people. A jack is a card people play. there are four opponents. An EP player who I have not assumed to be insane has bet into a tight preflop raiser and the rest of the field. There is two flush on board which I have no piece of. My pair is vulnerable to overcards.

The case for raising: knock out overcards and protect my hand.

The case against raising: if someone does have a jack, I'm going to get three bet and have to call it. A flush draw won't fold.

This pot isn't huge, only 6bb when it comes to me, so I'm not sure the protection value of a raise is worth the potential cost.