I think this might be a little interesting

[sfer]

From memory. Party 3/6.

I limp UTG with 33, folded to a very loose but erratic (every flop, every river, folding about 50% on the river, has yet to win a pot) player in the CO who limps, Button--a 17/9, possible 2+2er according to bdk3clash who is at the table--raises, blinds fold and we call.

3 to the flop for 7 SBs. Flop is J57. I check, CO checks, Button bets, I call, CO calls.

Turn is a 2. I bet, CO calls, Button thinks and folds.

River is an 8. I bet...

[Entity]

Was the flop rainbow? I'm trying to figure out what erratic duder could be calling with. Your hand doesn't have much of a value bet against a random hand on the river here, but it depends on what he'd call the flop and turn with. If he'd call the flop and turn with anything I like it all the way through.

Rob

[sfer]

Yeah, rainbow. Suits unimportant.

[ckessel]

The UTG call seems loose unless you know the table is passive/loose. But, once you're in you're in.

I don't get why you called the flop though. Anything beats you. CO can't really be read, and the button is clearly a good player. Almost anything beats you. The pot is relatively small (only 3 people preflop). Just doesn't seem worth going for. Now, if there were 6 preflop (doubled due to the raise) and you ended up with just two at the river, then I can see betting in hopes of taking the pot on perhaps a missed draw of some sort or 3rd pair that might fold having failed to hit 2-pair.

I'm just a relative newbie though...

[bakku]

That river card sucks but I think betting is better than checking.

[DeathDonkey]

I like it except I might think about check / folding the river, unless you know he's the bluffing type. I don't see him folding anything that beats you except maybe a 5 and you are bluffing aren't you?

-DeathDonkey

[wyoak]

if he folds 50% on the river betting is a given at this point (river).

the flop call is interesting...by calling here and leading the blank turn you get fishy to come along for sure, you get to see the turn for 1 sb, and you still can fold if you're raised on the turn. Betting on the turn would cost the same as calling a reraise on the flop (not that you necessarily would call), and you get the added benefit of the extra card. Not to mention that a check/call on the flop followed by a bet on a rag is going to confuse most thinking players. Just about anything that'll raise PF except AA/KK/QQ/JJ is going to drop here. The values are a bit fuzzy but it does seem like a better move than raising the flop to test button's strength. i might be way off.

i would have folded though. but maybe that's why i'm stuck in the kiddie pool.

[marching_on_together]

[ QUOTE ]
That river card sucks but I think betting is better than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?, I don't think he's ever folding anything that beats hero, plus his 50% folding on the river seems to indicate he calls to the river with overcards and then folds unimproved. If you check he might very well check a hand that beats hero. Unless he often calls with A/K high i don't see much point of betting.

[chief444]

Nice.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That river card sucks but I think betting is better than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?, I don't think he's ever folding anything that beats hero, plus his 50% folding on the river seems to indicate he calls to the river with overcards and then folds unimproved. If you check he might very well check a hand that beats hero. Unless he often calls with A/K high i don't see much point of betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check you don't give a better hand the option of folding, which will happen enough - against someone who folds 50% of the time on the river - to make the bet profitable.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That river card sucks but I think betting is better than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?, I don't think he's ever folding anything that beats hero, plus his 50% folding on the river seems to indicate he calls to the river with overcards and then folds unimproved. If you check he might very well check a hand that beats hero. Unless he often calls with A/K high i don't see much point of betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check you don't give a better hand the option of folding, which will happen enough - against someone who folds 50% of the time on the river - to make the bet profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I think the bigger question is if he's really been folding pairs on the river, or if he's folding 50% of the time because his WtSD is 100% and he only pairs up half of the time.

That said, a bet is a must here, but it's a weird situation. A lot of draws just paired up and if he'll call with those pairs, then check/folding might be better than betting. But if he'll bluff rarely, then a bet is a must -- I guess it's kind of like a blocking bet, but maybe with some chance of folding a better hand. Not sure, though. You might have more river folding equity had you checkraised the flop and bet the turn, since that might tell him that his A5 is no goot. I dunno.

Rob

[DMBFan23]

I'm not sure we can treat the folded river stat as a meaningful read other than to say that we know that villain is at least capable of folding occasionally on the river. if sfer has a particularly large sample size on villain then he can chime in and correct me.

If he will only call with hands that beat us but will occasionally bluff then I think check calling is better than betting. usually to bet on the river with hands we aren't sure are good, shouldn't we want the "hands he'll call with" to be a wider range than the "hands he'll bet with"?

first off, I'm going on the assumption that he's never folding a pair. if he made it this far with a 7 or a 5 then he ain't folding it for one more bet IMO. since I don't even think villain will bet all of his pairs, and I don't think he calls with a worse hand, I think check calling is better than betting.

are both better than check folding? idunno.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
From memory. Party 3/6.

I limp UTG with 33, folded to a very loose but erratic (every flop, every river, folding about 50% on the river, has yet to win a pot) player in the CO who limps, Button--a 17/9, possible 2+2er according to bdk3clash who is at the table--raises, blinds fold and we call.

3 to the flop for 7 SBs. Flop is J57. I check, CO checks, Button bets, I call, CO calls.

Turn is a 2. I bet, CO calls, Button thinks and folds.

River is an 8. I bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

PM the name of the button. It may have been me /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[chief444]

I was just assuming it was a meaningful stat since he posted it.

I agree otherwise.

[marching_on_together]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That river card sucks but I think betting is better than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?, I don't think he's ever folding anything that beats hero, plus his 50% folding on the river seems to indicate he calls to the river with overcards and then folds unimproved. If you check he might very well check a hand that beats hero. Unless he often calls with A/K high i don't see much point of betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check you don't give a better hand the option of folding, which will happen enough - against someone who folds 50% of the time on the river - to make the bet profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't read it like that, most of the time the guy is folding when he missed his draws e.g. overcards we can't be sure here how much he is folding when he has something slightly legit. What's your own percentage for folding to a river bet?

[djoyce003]

I think I check raise the flop bet. If he's raising with the button here I think he has overcards more often than he has a jack 5 or 7. I think a check raise might fold out the CO who could have a 5 or 7, but he might not want to call 2 bets with it. I think barring no QKorA on the turn, a bet from you takes down the pot. If i get called or raised on the turn i'm done.

[DMBFan23]

sfer I like your flop play, keep the CO in for one bet when you figure he wants to see the river, but don't let Button get tricky. he'll define his hand on the turn if you bet out.

[IndieMatty]

Check raising the flop gives you a good idea where you stand, yes you're [censored] if an ace hits on the turn...so this looks good to,I didn't pay much attention when I played the 3/6 but even there, if I saw the Blinds bet out on a blank, it usually means they caught a draw. I don't think CO is folding any peace of this.

[Redeye]

I like the way you played this, but I'm curious to know what plans you had for the turn if a blank didn't fall. Are you check folding to an A,K? How about a Q?

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
The UTG call seems loose unless you know the table is passive/loose. But, once you're in you're in.

I don't get why you called the flop though. Anything beats you. CO can't really be read, and the button is clearly a good player. Almost anything beats you. The pot is relatively small (only 3 people preflop). Just doesn't seem worth going for.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to go ahead and agree with this. Please tell me why I'm wrong ...

[sfer]

Limping was fine at this table.

[jskills]

Sorry, I was referring to the flop action.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I was referring to the flop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think he's behind?

Rob

[chesspain]

Was the CO so loose that he would have coldcalled a whiffed flop if you checkraised the button?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Was the CO so loose that he would have coldcalled a whiffed flop if you checkraised the button?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. About 99% of the time I would gather. He never folded before the river.

[sfer]

CO folded. I think checking to induce some desperate bluff is probably more profitable, but at the same time I really don't want to have to show my hand.

[Flushed]

[ QUOTE ]
From memory. Party 3/6.

I limp UTG with 33, folded to a very loose but erratic (every flop, every river, folding about 50% on the river, has yet to win a pot) player in the CO who limps, Button--a 17/9, possible 2+2er according to bdk3clash who is at the table--raises, blinds fold and we call.

3 to the flop for 7 SBs. Flop is J57. I check, CO checks, Button bets, I call, CO calls.

Turn is a 2. I bet, CO calls, Button thinks and folds.

River is an 8. I bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

Any reason why you don't checkraise the flop here?

I'm very suspicious of turn stop 'n gos (granted I play 2/4) so I imagine other players are suspicious too; it's a draw often enough where even overcards might raise and just check behind on the river without improving.

I didn't read all of the thread, so sorry if you already discussed it.

[marching_on_together]

Betting the river here is misguided unless you have a very very strong read that this guy drops 2nd 3rd pair on the river when faced with one bet. To make that read you need to know more than he just folds alot on the river you need to know what he has folded. Players who chase overcards will clearly fold more than your avearage 2+2er on this street, unless he has a habit of flashing his losing hands at you, you won't know what he is capable of chucking.

I think at this limit your going to find very few players who will lay down a bettor hand to a single bet to make this move +ve.

Check call or check fold (depending on the opponent) seems like the right move here.

[sfer]

I expected him to fold a better hand approximately never.

[SparkyDog]

Keep the bad player in. C/R gets you HU out of position with a good player. Keeping the bad player in makes it a protected pot and much easier to shove button off of his overcards with the CO in there too, and keeps button from bluffing you off a better hand.

[marching_on_together]

[ QUOTE ]
I expected him to fold a better hand approximately never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok in that case i presume you fancied him calling with A or K high cos i think 22 is unlikely here /images/graemlins/wink.gif, i think your better of checking here as most won't call with ace high especially as he didn't raise pre-flop which probably indicates he has an average kicker, plus a possible straight came in on the end so even if you were betting a draw you may have just got there. If you check he will often check hands that have you beat so even if you intended to always call his river bet if you checked i still wouldn't bet out here.