Please Help the Calling Station

[BluesGuitarTrash]

About the tenth hand I'd played at this table, no reads.


Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (7 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (10 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

On the flop, it seems to me that I had a gutshot and two overcards, so if I eliminate the two A/K's that are diamonds, and the Jd, I still have six outs, and the pot's laying 12 to 1. I didn't have the bollocks to raise, and merely called.

On the turn, I get one of the outs I discounted, and of course I'm spooked by the diamond. But, I'm in a place in my poker education where I'm completely torn between: (a) always just assuming my opponent has completed his flush, and (b) going ahead and playing A's with the best possible kicker. All of this overloads my tiny brain, and I call for the second time.

On the river, I look at the size of the pot, I think about SSH saying that it requires proof beyond a resonable doubt that you're beaten in a large pot before you should fold, I'm aware that the 3s shouldn't have helped anyone, and I go ahead and CALL FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT TIME!!!!

[jaxUp]

Raise the flop to clean up overcard outs, and possibly get a free turn.

Given that you didn't I raise the turn here with what is likely the best hand.

Given that you didn't, the river call is fine.

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop to clean up overcard outs, and possibly get a free turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If several villains had already called the bet you can just call, but here you are in perfect position to knock them out by making them face two cold.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
(a) always just assuming my opponent has completed his flush

[/ QUOTE ]

The monsters usually aren't there. It took me a while to learn this too. And, on Party .5/1, Villan could be betting with something like A/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif. You have strong draws, reraise while the bets are cheap to knock out opponents (with the bet coming from your immediate right, you're in perfect position for this) and to find out just how good Villan really thinks his hand is.

Then, especially if BOTH villans call your raise, or one of them re-raises, you have to re-evaluate on the river or when the bet comes back to you, but don't panic on the flop just because it's two-suited.

[bakku]

I'd raise the flop. Knocking out the button and taking a free turn card would be good.

Having not raised the flop I'd raise the turn.

[callydrias]

Either fold or raise the flop - calling doesn't help you. Raise to make the field call two cold and hopefully clean up some of your outs.

I think folding is better though. The board is moderately coordinated against 4 opponents and you have no flush redraws if a diamond falls on the turn. Even if you hit your A or K, you may run into a straight or two pair.

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
Either fold or raise the flop - calling doesn't help you. Raise to make the field call two cold and hopefully clean up some of your outs.

I think folding is better though. The board is moderately coordinated against 4 opponents and you have no flush redraws if a diamond falls on the turn. Even if you hit your A or K, you may run into a straight or two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

A jack makes a straight for Hero, are you counting that? Even if you don't count the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif he has enough outs to not fold I think.

[gopnik]

Can you tell me exactly what outs you clearing with your flop raise? If somebody has Ax or Kx and A or K comes you are ahead. KQ, AT, AQ, KT are not folding here....

[callydrias]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Either fold or raise the flop - calling doesn't help you. Raise to make the field call two cold and hopefully clean up some of your outs.

I think folding is better though. The board is moderately coordinated against 4 opponents and you have no flush redraws if a diamond falls on the turn. Even if you hit your A or K, you may run into a straight or two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

A jack makes a straight for Hero, are you counting that? Even if you don't count the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif he has enough outs to not fold I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only three solid outs are the non-diamond Js. The 3 K and 3 A outs are all dirty given the other straight and reverse domination possibilities. Also, anyone sitting on any diamond if hero catches A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the turn has lots of redraws. At 6:1 it's close, but I still lean towards folding.

Edit: make that 4:1 since hero should raise instead of call

[Entity]

Folding this flop is [censored] terrible.

I'd raise the flop, but barring that, I'd raise the turn.

Maybe I should just say "listen to bakku." He's better than me.

Rob

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me exactly what outs you clearing with your flop raise? If somebody has Ax or Kx and A or K comes you are ahead. KQ, AT, AQ, KT are not folding here....

[/ QUOTE ]

A2, AT, KT may be in, may call one but fold for two. AQ and KQ, I would think you might have heard from them pre-flop if they are in here, but no they aren't folding.

[callydrias]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this flop is [censored] terrible.

I'd raise the flop, but barring that, I'd raise the turn.

Maybe I should just say "listen to bakku." He's better than me.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Rob. I'll be sure to check in for a response from bakku since he would be hard pressed to post with less content. Maybe he can even explain why folding is fu[/i]cking (not just regular old) terrible.

This is a tough spot to be in and I'm interested to see how others analyze this hand. My take is that a raise is good, but you're probably behind and likely drawing thin so folding is a little better. Maybe I'm wrong, but please explain why.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding this flop is [censored] terrible.

I'd raise the flop, but barring that, I'd raise the turn.

Maybe I should just say "listen to bakku." He's better than me.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Rob. I'll be sure to check in for a response from bakku since he would be hard pressed to post with less content. Maybe he can even explain why folding is fu[/i]cking (not just regular old) terrible.

This is a tough spot to be in and I'm interested to see how others analyze this hand. My take is that a raise is good, but you're probably behind and likely drawing thin so folding is a little better. Maybe I'm wrong, but please explain why.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got around ~6-7 outs here. Sometimes your gutshot won't be clean and sometimes diamond overcards won't, but that said, even on a coordinated board, a gutshot+overs is a reasonably strong hand. That's why I was so emphatic about folding here being pretty bad.

Rob

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got around ~6-7 outs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is very bad. I count at least 7 outs, assuming someone is on a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif-draw. If nobody has 2 diamonds, your'e in even better shape.

Drawing to 7 outs is drawing thin? Um, no. Not when the pot's laying 12:1.

[BluesGuitarTrash]

Thanks to everyone for their help on this hand, it was really useful, and I appreciate it.

I know it doesn't affect the analysis, but for all my fears and my assumption that Villain had made his flush, it turns out he was never on a flush draw. I was ahead on the turn with my overcards, and then he sucked out the river 3s, which I allowed him to do by playing so passively, giving him AA/33.

Thanks again