What can I expect?

[Inthacup]

I've played holdem for about 9 months now, and play tournaments sporatically. I played single table tourneys quite a bit a few months ago, but realized they didn't fit my game. However, the multi table tourneys seem to fit me much better. I know this sample size is ridiculously small, but I've played in about 15 multi tables, and I've won 2, placed second in 1, and finished in the money in 5 others. Some of these tourneys vary on how many places they pay out(top 5 vs. top 20) so that affects my results as well. This seems like very high numbers to me, so I was wondering, given an above average ability at multi table tournaments, how often can I expect to place in each respective tourney?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

The generally accepted standard for a top player is to place in the money about 2x the average player. For small buy-in tourneys, you can probably multiply this to 3x or more. But, for the major tourneys on the "tournament trail", I doubt anyone has a long-term expectation much higher than this, as there generally aren't enough really weak players for them to have a bigger edge.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Inthacup]

Thanks for the post fossilman. I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, but I see your point. Had I encountered these results against some tough competetion, I could see it being a fluke, but, you're right, these are the small $10 and $20 buy-in tourneys online.

I have a question for you. When you finish in the money, do you usually get there by grinding it out, or are you usually near the money leader by the time you get there? Out of the 3 tourneys that I've placed top 2 on, 2 of them have been eeking it out, nowhere near the top leader, and I didn't get the chip lead until the final 2!

I hear that tight players don't do well in tourneys, but I play pretty tight until the blinds get above 200 400. It seems before then, you're just pissing your money away trying to bluff. Beyond those I crank up the aggression, and raise with a much larger range of hands. Also, once the final table is assembled, I usually come out firing, because it seems that people play overly tight for an orbit or 2 before they get comfortable with the bigger blinds, and aggression. Any comments?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I'm much more often one of the chip leaders than one of the trailers by the time we get into the money. I have started the final table as a massive chip leader (half or more of the chips) on several occasions. And I've busted out on or near the bubble while holding a big stack more than once or twice, so you can see the risks involved in getting that big stack.

Of course, I have also won or placed in the top 3 while starting the final table in last or near last chip position as well. If you want to be a top player, you should be able to play all stack sizes well. I'm better with a big stack, but I know how to be patient with a small stack if the situation dictates it.

What they should say is "overly tight" players don't do well in tourneys. In particular, tight players who pay too much attention to their cards and not enough attention to the situation. I can hardly imagine how often I've seen people fold preflop after putting up most of their money in the blind. It's sick, and should rarely be done.

However, being tight is fine, as long as you still try some steals when the situation, more so than your cards, indicates it's the right thing to do. I stole one pot last night when we were on the bubble, and everyone folded to my small blind. The big blind was in about 7th or 8th chip position out of the 11 players on 2 tables. He and I both knew that I would raise him all-in, and that he would fold unless he had AA or maybe KK. So, since there was little doubt about the situation, I raised with 84o and stole the blinds. If he had been less savvy about the situation, and/or more willing to gamble with the best of it and risk elimination, I would've required a better hand to steal.

Of course, the same factors apply postflop and when defending your blinds. Being generally tight is fine, even good. But being tight when the situation says you don't need a real hand is the mistake that tight players make. If you know he's bluffing and that he'll fold to a reraise, who cares what hand you're holding, right?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I played 20 single table tournaments ($20 byin) and had an $13 average win.

After 50 tournaments my average was down to $2 per tournament.

Play 100 tournaments and calculate your average.............
expect half as much in the future.

GL. Purple Haze