Tricky SB K8s hand

[adanthar]

Level 1, Full Tilt 14+1 satellite. Winner gets a seat in the 50K guaranteed this weekend; runner up gets his buyin back. 9 handed, 1500 chips, 15/30 blinds. The guy to my left is decent but I have no read on anyone else (default: weak/tight, passive terrible players).

Three people limp, I complete K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the SB and the BB checks.

The flop is J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet 90 into the pot of 150 (note: this takes it down here surprisingly often, but it's not a move you can make on Party.) The decent BB folds, but 2 of the 3 limpers call (whoa) and the button minraises (*whoa*). I call, both limpers call, and there's 4 to the turn for 870.

The turn is the good news, bad news T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I think and check. The two limpers behind me check, and the button thinks and bets 360 (note: I don't know what she has but I don't think she filled up.) I call and both limpers call one more time (*whoa*). 4 to the river for 2310 chips (everyone involved now has 900 behind).

The river is the 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I push.

[gumpzilla]

This seems like a pretty good line to me. I like the flop bet, though it is puzzling that you got yourself so many callers. It just seems amazingly hard to put these people on any kind of hand here. At least one of the limpers seems likely to have a diamond draw, probably worse, and the button's flop minraise screams trips to me. The T is a particularly unpleasant card to see, I think, because JT is probably going to be the J most likely to be limped in with, to my mind.

I'd probably make a weak lead on the turn, something to the tune of 200-250, hoping to look scared of the flush. I'm not sure that I would have expected the button to follow through with a bet on that board; the small bet trying to encourage somebody to come over the top (or just getting called in a whole bunch of places and then pushing the river if it's not a J) seems to me like perhaps a better way of getting money in the middle. I'd push on the river as well; I think the K high flush will be good often enough for that to be right.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a pretty good line to me. I like the flop bet, though it is puzzling that you got yourself so many callers. It just seems amazingly hard to put these people on any kind of hand here. At least one of the limpers seems likely to have a diamond draw, probably worse, and the button's flop minraise screams trips to me. The T is a particularly unpleasant card to see, I think, because JT is probably going to be the J most likely to be limped in with, to my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're entirely correct except for one thing: the button isn't *necessarily* the one with the jack. However, by the end of this flop action one or both of them are out around 100% of the time. If there are 2 jacks out I agree the button has to have one.

Also, if button doesn't follow through on the turn, I a)don't mind and b)will probably be checkraising the river.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a pretty good line to me. I like the flop bet, though it is puzzling that you got yourself so many callers. It just seems amazingly hard to put these people on any kind of hand here.


[/ QUOTE ]

They probably all have overs and figure no one has a J. I've noticed tables either really mind a paired flop or really don't mind (it's like one player calls and everyoen figures, eh? I guess if he's doing it...)

I don't necessarily like it either though much. But, if you hit your flush it's almost certainly good and you'll just be getting more $$.

[ QUOTE ]

At least one of the limpers seems likely to have a diamond draw,


[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, but it's not *that* likely...

[ QUOTE ]

probably worse, and the button's flop minraise screams trips to me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it does. Or perhaps a pp trying to flush out a trip hand to expose him/herself. I don't know, /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

[ QUOTE ]

The T is a particularly unpleasant card to see, I think, because JT is probably going to be the J most likely to be limped in with, to my mind.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is why Adanthar minds it showing up here, I do too, but I think it's better 'good news' than bad 'bad news'.

I like Adanthar's line here. What about betting less on the river hoping to get a few more hands you beat to go over the top of you allin (thinking they have you beat). Obviously full houses will beat you here no matter what. But I think you can make a weird bet and trick trip jacks (or two pair) to come over the top where they otherwise might fold.

I dunno though, I like the line here.

Yugoslav

[Irieguy]

Well, it's always hard to read a hand when you're reading the commentary... but I put you in third place, only ahead of the guy with the bare ace of diamonds.

It sounds like i'm wrong, because I can't imagine you posting this if you were against pocket 5's and either Jacks full or quads... so apparently you are against two jacks and neither are full.

Because of the structure, I play this hand similarly. I love the push on the river because you can't induce a push by a worse hand with this board.

Irieguy

[ilya]

Holy *$#E^($^*#@)^)*!! Irieguy changed his avatar!

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like i'm wrong, because I can't imagine you posting this if you were against pocket 5's and either Jacks full or quads... so apparently you are against two jacks and neither are full.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd post it even if I was (it's an interesting hand and tonight is the night this forum stops being about the bubble /images/graemlins/tongue.gif), but without commenting on it further yet, I just couldn't see the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif calling the flop by itself without another diamond, offsuit J or 5 attached.

Assuming it's there, though, that's another reason to push the river. By the river it's clear that in addition to at least one jack there's a good chance of another flush out there. It's tricky because I don't know where it is, but if it's A-high, the question is whether it's going to overcall the push after the jack calls it.

Of course, that didn't cross my mind until fifteen minutes later.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I love the push on the river because you can't induce a push by a worse hand with this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I love your post due to its subtley indirect 'correcting.'

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Yugoslav

[Seadood228]

Given the stack sizes and structure of the tourney, looks like a fine line.

I might have checkraised the flop on occasion, but leading out in this spot often accomplishes the same thing for less. The lower the paired card, the more I like the checkraise..

[lorinda]

The decent BB folds, but 2 of the 3 limpers call (whoa) and the button minraises (*whoa*). I call

Do you need this pot?

You are in a smallish pot, with no idea where you are, in a game where you can push people about for a long time and where you've already put two "Woah's" in the hand.

You might not even be ahead if you hit, remove the problem now. You do NOT need to be in this after this action.

Lori

[SuitedSixes]

Do you need this pot?

I think this is one of the most important questions you should ask on every hand.

[lorinda]

The river is the 2 . I push.

Seems fine, and consistent with the rest of the plan.

Lori

[ilya]

Everyone seems to like the push, and I guess it's because it lets Hero get paid off by hands that would otherwise probably check behind, like small flushes and AJ. Sure Hero loses to the Ace-high flush and the boats, but he would have called anyway.
Well, this all makes sense if Hero refuses to fold the river no matter what. But is there really no way you'd fold the river here? I mean, say you check and everyone behind you goes all-in. Or even two people go all-in. Sure you're getting great odds, but are you sure you're ahead often enough in those scenarios? I mean, it seems like the just-trips woulda played the flop harder.
Yeah it's a huge pot but it's not like you're crippled if you fold. You'll have 30xBB.
I'm playing the devil's advocate here a bit, so feel free to be harsh with the rebuttals.

[lorinda]

Well, this all makes sense if Hero refuses to fold the river no matter what.

Hero made that choice on the flop.

Lori

[AtticusFinch]

Betting that small into a pot with that many players is a little brave IMO. Furthermore, the minraise on the flop smells a lot like 55 or jx to me, especally in an unraised pot. Pure pot-sweetener, not expected or desired to get anyone to fold. I probably would have folded to it myself. Perhaps that's weakish, but I don't like drawing to a non-nut flush with a paired board, especially when the pair is a paint. Sure, you're getting 4.5 to 1, but those are only proper odds if you expect your flush to be good if it hits. In this case, chances are that 1-2 of your outs are no good because they fill someone up (and as an earlier poster said, Td is a prime suspect), and I'd be surprised if the Ad weren't lurking out there as well with this many players in the pot.

If you make the read that no-one has filled up, then cool. I'm all for reads. In that case, I like the push on the river. However, I probably never would have gotten that far.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, this all makes sense if Hero refuses to fold the river no matter what.

Hero made that choice on the flop.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say that? Yes, the Hero has put in 180 chips on the flop, but having started the hand with 1500 he still has about 1300 behind. So he doesn't need this pot to stay competitive even after calling the flop minraise. What if, after the turn brought the Td, Hero checked and there was a pot bet, raise, and re-raise behind him? I'm not sure I see why he couldn't fold to so much action. Or say the river brought the Ah and suddenly two players came to life.
I guess I don't understand why Hero is all that committed by the end of the flop action.

[lorinda]

I guess I don't understand why Hero is all that committed by the end of the flop action.

If Hero takes the view that a flush is good here, then he has to stick with that view unless something incredibly odd happens.
Sadly, incredibly odd things happen all the time on paired boards (Which is why I run away on the flop)

However, the odds are he's up against two jacks and a random spoiler hand.
The jacks could be JT, but he's probably paying those anyway, but these weak-tighties might not bet their random JQ or something in fear of K8s.

If you are pursuing the line of trying to hit a flush, you have to make them pay when you hit it, even though you are sometimes going to get killed.

Personally I still fold the flop, but then I fold anything.

Edit: Or say the river brought the Ah and suddenly two players came to life.

I was a little unclear, i meant that if it doesnt get stupidly dangerous then the hero is committed.

Lori

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
i meant that if it doesnt get stupidly dangerous then the hero is committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes sense. Thanks Lori.
I guess my point in the "check the river?" post was that perhaps things HAVE gotten stupidly dangerous with everyone staying in for a healthy bet after the Td on the turn. The fact that everyone called the turn seems more worrisome to me than the fact that no one raised seems comforting. (grammar??)
However as this is a $15 tournament I'm probably getting much too paranoid.

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
However as this is a $15 tournament I'm probably getting much too paranoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or perhaps we should be more paranoid because of the small buyin, just because building an early stack is less important in these than that would be against higher competition.

I have no idea if the above is true /images/graemlins/smile.gif, but thought I'd throw it out.

But yeah I agree that in a top heavy satellite I'd be committed to the flush as long as the board doesn't doublepair. In a SNG I'd be a little more careful though.

[curtains]

No way in a million years is it correct to fold on the flop in a $15 tournament. Everyone here should be assumed to be a giant idiot that will gladly pay you off if a diamond comes.
There is not that great a chance someone has a full house already on the JJ5 flop. I think that Ace high flush draw may be more likely. This min raise "pot sweetener" could easily be made with J8o, as in a lot of $15 players minds, having any jack is like having the mortal nuts here.
I think betting out on this flop is reasonable, especially since it's a paired and unthreatening board. I would generally check however, as even on this type of board, I don't want to bet into 4 opponents in a low buyin tournament.
I would also bet out on the turn. The likely bettor/raiser is the button, with 2 players sandwiched in between.

[adanthar]

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Well, this all makes sense if Hero refuses to fold the river no matter what.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero made that choice on the flop.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you say that? Yes, the Hero has put in 180 chips on the flop, but having started the hand with 1500 he still has about 1300 behind. So he doesn't need this pot to stay competitive even after calling the flop minraise. What if, after the turn brought the Td, Hero checked and there was a pot bet, raise, and re-raise behind him? I'm not sure I see why he couldn't fold to so much action. Or say the river brought the Ah and suddenly two players came to life.
I guess I don't understand why Hero is all that committed by the end of the flop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, these (plus the fact that it's a sat) make the difference.

At Party, I don't think there's a question I fold somewhere in here. But FT has big stacks and very, very slow blinds; I can put in 700 into this hand and still be competitive because 50/100 is the *sixth* blind level (and the seventh is 60/120). Despite that, folding to the minraise may've been better.

Anyway, I checked the turn with the intention of folding to a bet/raise and only pushed the river because it was a 2.

The limper behind thought a lot but called me anyway with what turned out to be J7o (heh). The second limper folded. The button thought *forever* before folding - I'm pretty sure she had at least a good kicker or a smaller flush.

(Epilogue: I wound up losing the sat to a flush draw that pushed a giant stack all in against my top pair and hit /images/graemlins/grin.gif Karma.)

[Voltron87]

S'ok exceopt for one thing. If I'm raising the flop I want to CR it, not lead 2/3 pot. Then you can check push on the turn or if the turn is checked river push. I think all those lines get J calls.

[pooh74]

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S'ok exceopt for one thing. If I'm raising the flop I want to CR it, not lead 2/3 pot. Then you can check push on the turn or if the turn is checked river push. I think all those lines get J calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, lets just forget everything up til the turn for now...fine. But, what was your thinking by calling the turn? Did you not expect the calls from the other 2? (Obviously not). What deterred you from raise/push after the 360 bet? thanks

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
S'ok exceopt for one thing. If I'm raising the flop I want to CR it, not lead 2/3 pot. Then you can check push on the turn or if the turn is checked river push. I think all those lines get J calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, lets just forget everything up til the turn for now...fine. But, what was your thinking by calling the turn? Did you not expect the calls from the other 2? (Obviously not). What deterred you from raise/push after the 360 bet? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you meant to respond to OP but quoted me instead.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
S'ok exceopt for one thing. If I'm raising the flop I want to CR it, not lead 2/3 pot. Then you can check push on the turn or if the turn is checked river push. I think all those lines get J calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, lets just forget everything up til the turn for now...fine. But, what was your thinking by calling the turn? Did you not expect the calls from the other 2? (Obviously not). What deterred you from raise/push after the 360 bet? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you meant to respond to OP but quoted me instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I was sort of using your post and wanted to focus in on why OP didnt push the turn...you touched on it, i wanted to narrow it down to just that move. (cold calling turn).

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, lets just forget everything up til the turn for now...fine. But, what was your thinking by calling the turn? Did you not expect the calls from the other 2? (Obviously not). What deterred you from raise/push after the 360 bet? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

The T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a very good/bad card, but at the same time the button is only betting 360 into a pot of 900 (she thought a long time before she made it, too). That's not usually a trapping bet on this site and not something I expect after a flop minraise, so my guess here is she doesn't have me beat (yet).

But the two guys in between us either have nothing, a flush, or a jack(s). After the weird bet I *think* button either has a jack and doesn't like the flush or has a flush and doesn't like the full house, but either way she's not folding to me alone. If she has a J another jack in the hand doesn't scare me since it only adds 3 outs; if there's a smaller flush in between us, I obviously like it. Either way there's a decent chance the two guys between us are drawing near dead, and if they're not, they'll let me know with a checkraise and maybe *now* I can fold to some weirdo action behind. But for the time being I want their chips.

What I didn't expect was exactly 2 calls. I thought I'd either get one call, no calls or a CR/call (which means I probably fold) or CR/folds in which case I flip a coin. Two calls just weirded me out but meant that I was *probably* ahead (wouldn't a full house raise at some point?) and the river didn't change anything, so, I pushed.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, lets just forget everything up til the turn for now...fine. But, what was your thinking by calling the turn? Did you not expect the calls from the other 2? (Obviously not). What deterred you from raise/push after the 360 bet? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

The T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a very good/bad card, but at the same time the button is only betting 360 into a pot of 900 (she thought a long time before she made it, too). That's not usually a trapping bet on this site and not something I expect after a flop minraise, so my guess here is she doesn't have me beat (yet).

But the two guys in between us either have nothing, a flush, or a jack(s). After the weird bet I *think* button either has a jack and doesn't like the flush or has a flush and doesn't like the full house, but either way she's not folding to me alone. If she has a J another jack in the hand doesn't scare me since it only adds 3 outs; if there's a smaller flush in between us, I obviously like it. Either way there's a decent chance the two guys between us are drawing near dead, and if they're not, they'll let me know with a checkraise and maybe *now* I can fold to some weirdo action behind. But for the time being I want their chips.

What I didn't expect was exactly 2 calls. I thought I'd either get one call, no calls or a CR/call (which means I probably fold) or CR/folds in which case I flip a coin. Two calls just weirded me out but meant that I was *probably* ahead (wouldn't a full house raise at some point?) and the river didn't change anything, so, I pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you WERE ready to fold to "weirdo" action (CR(s), 2 all-ins etc...). I just cant figure out if this is +EV or not because of all the variables. Is allowing the J(s) to draw full or the Ad to outflush etc worth the extra $ in the pot. If Js are calling the push on the turn, I guess you're not losing any EV by just calling bc the river will either help them, or it wont, so you get beat or you dont regardless of what you do on the turn...I see your reasoning i guess.

Also the 2 calls would be unexpected so in hindsight your call seems weird but maybe, in fact, it wasnt. In sum "Playing flush draws with pairs on board is no fun"

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Also the 2 calls would be unexpected so in hindsight your call seems weird but maybe, in fact, it wasnt. In sum "Playing flush draws with pairs on board is no fun"

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not. But it made me 2500 chips on the second hand so there's clearly something to these marginal hands out of position, right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also the 2 calls would be unexpected so in hindsight your call seems weird but maybe, in fact, it wasnt. In sum "Playing flush draws with pairs on board is no fun"

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not. But it made me 2500 chips on the second hand so there's clearly something to these marginal hands out of position, right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

lol...didnt realize it was the second hand. This adds another layer. You lose, fire up another...no lost time. You win and you're in great shape to finish ITM and/or better. Hourly rate considerations taken into account, its an even "better" play....maybe /images/graemlins/wink.gif