Oh ma bluff.

[Joe Tall]

Players in this hand are resonable. The button is a solid player as is the Big Blind. MP2 is a feeder seeing the flop with >50% of his hands.

Party Poker 20/40 Omaha/8 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Joe Tall is SB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, Joe Tall completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Joe Tall checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Joe Tall bets</font>

Take care and play well,
Joe Tall

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Hi Joe,

If I never ever made this turn bet would that be a leak in my game?

Chris

[Moneyline]

Preflop: There are probably some here who will give you flack about completing, but I think you made the right play (and I don't think it's close).

Flop: I would probably check as well, but I would seriously consider beting. From your description BB and button are unlikely to stay in there, and you could easily be ahead of the donator both ways if he/she stays in. I don't know if I would have the cojones to actually try this... but maybe Mike Matusow would.

Turn: Now I would definitely bet. IMO, you're only concern is the donator, and the odds seem to be in your favor that he/she has no K, J, or 7.

All in all, I probably would have played it the same as you did.

[Nick709]

I don't like it.
You will be called by either a K or a J, or a large wrap, in this game I would expect someone with KJxx to check this flop and raise this turn, even AKxx. Just my experience in the game. Oh, and then there is the slowplayed 7. I would (almost) never bet here.

[hypermegachi]

i've never played in a 20/40 game so i have no idea of the texture of the game.

but i do think that your chances are very slim in winning. you're risking 1BB to win 2BB with nothin but ace high, with no outs.

you have 3 players to act after you. if you can bluff all 3 33% of the time you break even. doesn't seem like it's worth the risk.

[DasLeben]

Well, I'm fine with it.

If you have accurate reads on the other players, I don't see what the problem is. *shrugs*

[Klak]

this is not terrible. obviously a few of your opponents were looking for a low flop. a big part of higher limit O8 is stealing when no low is possible. i prefer to have position when trying a play like this, though.

[gergery]

I think its opponent dependent, and what their image is of you, but it’s probably EV+ given it needs to work only 1 in 3 times.

I’d think solid players in BB/button aren’t going to bother trying to bluff-catch on such a tiny pot, particularly since its reasonable that a SB would be 1) more likely to have a 7, and 2) could try for a check-raise being first to act. The chances that MP both has a hand that he’s willing to call with now but would not have bet the flop with in LP doesn’t seem to outweigh the 33% chance of success you need.

--Greg

[Yads]

I don't like it pot is small and you're out of position. If you were going to bluff, bluff on the flop.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Joe,

If I never ever made this turn bet would that be a leak in my game?

Chris

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a leak but here is my thinking:

The good players have put in before the flop w/a likely low and acting in LP, if thier high as an piece when checked to, they'll bet. I nearly bet the flop except for the flush draw. Once the flop is checked through, I'm sure neither has a flush draw and the low runner is killed, along w/the pot size. Now all I have to do is worry about the BB, effectively bluffing into one player. My bet looks like a whiffed c/r on the flop of trips, for what's that worth.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Buzz]

Joe - I haven't read the other responses yet. I'm going to post mine and then read them.

I think your best move, if you have opponents who understand the game, is to directly bet the flop, rather than waiting for the turn.

The obvious danger of betting this flop is that somebody who has flopped trip sevens or better will raise, but with only three opponents, it’s unlikely any of them has a seven, a pair of sevens, or a pair of jacks.

Your three opponents have 12 cards between them. After the flop the location of 45 cards, of which two are sevens, is unknown to you. The probability of no seven amongst 12 random cards is C(43,12)/C(45,12) = 0.533.

Thus if your opponents have random hands, the odds are slightly in your favor of none of them having been dealt a seven. However, your opponents don’t have random hands.

Some of your opponents have a greater aversion to starting hands with a seven than others, but almost all good players tend to avoid starting hands with middle cards. Hard to say exactly how this aversion to starting hands containing sevens is reflected in the actual cards played by these particular opponents - but since your opponents probably are less likely to see the flop with hands containing sevens, the chance of not encountering an opponent holding a seven are greater than random. (And compared to the danger of encountering an opponent with a seven, the risk of bumping heads with an opponent holding a pair of sevens or a pair of jacks is small).

Random, the odds against a seven being held by an opponent are 533 to 467, or about eight to seven. However, after hand selection considerations, maybe eight to four is closer.

Doesn’t really matter. Eight to seven is good enough for you to bet the flop.

Assuming nobody without at least trip sevens will call your flop bet here, one small bet should win you four small bets roughly half the time. The other half of the time, one small bet will get a call or a raise (from an opponent with trip sevens, quad sevens, or jacks full). If you call the raise, and then back out on the next betting round, then half the time you’ll lose two small bets and the other half of the time you’ll win four small bets.

Accordingly, I think you should bet this flop.

You also could fold to the raise, but I think following that course of action will create problems for you on future hands. In recommending the above course of action, I’m assuming you do not already have a reputation for bluffing and then folding to a raise.

But suppose you don’t bet the flop. Suppose instead that you check, just as you actually did.

After the turn, the location of 44 cards, of which two are sevens, is unknown. The probability none of three random hands has been dealt a seven is C(42,12)/C(44,12) = 0.524. Knowing the location of one more card has hardly any affect on the probability one or more of three opponents, all playing random cards, holds a seven or a pair of sevens (or a pair of jacks).

Flopped trip sevens is not a strong enough hand to slow-play. When nobody bets this flop it looks as though nobody (including you) has a seven. Somebody could be slowplaying quad sevens or jacks full, but the odds of encountering quad sevens or jacks full are slim enough that you should not be overly concerned about the possibility. Quad sevens or jacks full is the monster under the bed. You simply cannot allow yourself to worry about the monster under the bed.

If you had one seven in your hand, your best play after this flop, in general, would be to directly bet your hand. When you don’t, it doesn’t look as though you have a seven. When the turn card is a king and you bet, it still doesn’t look like you have a seven, and since you’re betting from the small blind (first position), you’re obviously not slow-playing quad sevens or jacks full.

Thus your turn bet is either a pair of kings, a pair of aces, a single king, or a bluff. Which of those is most likely?

From the vantage point of one of your opponents without a king, but with an ace, the probability of your holding a hand with a king or a pair of aces is p=0.27, but because of hand selectivity considerations, let’s increase that to about about one in three. If so, a bluff is about twice as likely as a king, two kings, and/or a pair of aces.

Therefore a bluff, in my humble opinion, is most likely, and by about two to one.

Thus I would read your bet here as an attempt to steal the pot. But I would also think there would be a reasonable chance (1/3) you did have a king or a pair of aces.

Would your opponents reason that way or not? Hard to say, but probably not. Even so, I imagine at least one of them would put you on a steal attempt here. If so, and especially if holding a king, but maybe even without it, an opponent putting you on a bluff might raise. Or an opponent with a king (or better) might just call.

What is the chance one of your three opponents has a king (or two kings)? Since you don’t have a king yourself, and if you figure none of them has a seven, and if they have random cards, then
1-C(37,12)/C(40,12) = 2/3.

The odds would be about two to one that at least one of your opponents has at least one king if your opponents were playing random cards. But they’re more likely to be playing hands with kings than with random cards, making the odds even greater than two to one that at least one of your opponents has at least one king.

And now the question is, “What will an opponent holding a king do when you bet here?”

Since I don’t know your opponents, I don’t know the answer. However, if I were one of your opponents here, I’d figure you were bluffing. Accordingly I’d either call or raise, depending.

Assuming I didn’t have a hand with a seven, you could get away with bluffing on the flop, but assuming I did have a hand with a king, you couldn’t get away with bluffing on the turn.

You can get away with bluffing this flop, but unless you’re playing Bozos, you can’t get away with bluffing the turn.

That’s just my opinion.

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
You also could fold to the raise, but I think following that course of action will create problems for you on future hands. In recommending the above course of action, I’m assuming you do not already have a reputation for bluffing and then folding to a raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting point. Mightn't folding to a raise encourage the raising of his future lead-out bets? Would that neccessarily be a bad thing? To my way of thinking, it would depend on the proportion of his bets that were made with legitimate hands. If a preponderance of his bets were for value, he might want to encourage such raising behavior in his opponents. I'm not suggesting that he always fold here, but he might want to randomize the fold/call/re-raise decision.

The thing that I liked about Joe's bluff was that he identified his chief concern as the BB, and the BB had two players acting behind him. Even if the BB recognizes this situation as a possible bluff, it's tough for him to re-bluff when he's caught in the middle. A random element in Joe's reaction to these plays (raises) might promote behavior in his opponents that would add to BB's concerns.

(I should interject here that I don't know if this line of thinking has any validity for online play.)

I wonder if the bluff, but more importantly the reaction to a raise, has a combinatorically calculable optimal pattern, or a game theory solution. Hard to say with four players in the pot. I've worked out some optimal bluffing frequencies for certain heads-up situations, but haven't done a lot of thinking about situations where the bluff is raised.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
However, your opponents don’t have random hands.

Some of your opponents have a greater aversion to starting hands with a seven than others, but almost all good players tend to avoid starting hands with middle cards. Hard to say exactly how this aversion to starting hands containing sevens is reflected in the actual cards played by these particular opponents - but since your opponents probably are less likely to see the flop with hands containing sevens, the chance of not encountering an opponent holding a seven are greater than random. (And compared to the danger of encountering an opponent with a seven, the risk of bumping heads with an opponent holding a pair of sevens or a pair of jacks is small).

Random, the odds against a seven being held by an opponent are 533 to 467, or about eight to seven. However, after hand selection considerations, maybe eight to four is closer.

Doesn’t really matter. Eight to seven is good enough for you to bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with 100% of this if the flop was 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif instead of 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Thus, I waited until the turn. Even if one of the good players did have a weak diamond draw, they don't have odds on the turn to my bet, not even close.


You can get away with bluffing this flop, but unless you’re playing Bozos, you can’t get away with bluffing the turn.

They are bozos, they all folded.

That’s just my opinion.

Excellent response, Buzz. Thank you so much and I'll be trying to hang out here more often.

Thanks again,
Joe

[Buzz]

Hi Mack -

[ QUOTE ]
Mightn't folding to a raise encourage the raising of his future lead-out bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
Would that neccessarily be a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
To my way of thinking, it would depend on the proportion of his bets that were made with legitimate hands. If a preponderance of his bets were for value, he might want to encourage such raising behavior in his opponents. I'm not suggesting that he always fold here, but he might want to randomize the fold/call/re-raise decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning makes good sense.

And if folding to a raise only encouraged the raising of future lead-out bets it would be easy enough to adapt.

But instead what happens when you fold to such a raise is some of your opponents simply see you as weak - with the result that you become a target.

And who in his right mind would want to cope with being a target?

Instead I prefer to establish a tenacious image. Once established, it doesn’t take much to maintain the image. You just defend against the occasional attack. And that occasional defense prevents lots of attacks.

I do like the idea of randomizing your play, and in some situations I’ll do that. But not generally when I would probably be perceived as weak by some of my opponents. That’s just asking for trouble.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if one of the good players did have a weak diamond draw, they don't have odds on the turn to my bet, not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point, Joe. You do give them worse odds by waiting until the turn.

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

Hi Buzz,

But instead what happens when you fold to such a raise is some of your opponents simply see you as weak - with the result that you become a target.

I can't oppose this line of thinking since such situations are so game- and opponent-specific. Certainly, repetitive betting/folding could get one targeted. But the question I would ask after calling a raise is, "What next?" Do we fire again? I'm envisioning a scenario where our opponent has a 7 and nothing else, and where 4th and 5th streets go check/check, check/check. Then we have to turn our hand over. Our opponents' questioning transforms from "What was he betting with?" to "What was he calling with?", and now we really are adorned with a bullseye.

JMO,

Mack

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm envisioning a scenario where our opponent has a 7 and nothing else, and where 4th and 5th streets go check/check, check/check. Then we have to turn our hand over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Mack - Villain raises, then takes the free card, then checks the river. I agree it's a distinct possibility.

Villain shouldn't usually want to do that because then Hero gets a free card too - and Villain also doesn't collect a possible pay-off from Hero on the river. But I'll agree it's a possibility.

Buzz

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]

Your three opponents have 12 cards between them. After the flop the location of 45 cards, of which two are sevens, is unknown to you. The probability of no seven amongst 12 random cards is C(43,12)/C(45,12) = 0.533.


[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Buzz.

I would think you’d want to include the chance that an opponent has a made full house, being dealt JJxx into this also. My crude math puts this at around 6% of the time one of those 3 will be dealt that (I’m not sure how to calculate this exactly, however, so anyone wanting to show me would be very helpful).