suited junk in the BB

[KDawgCometh]

first off was the checkraise a good idea. Second should I have bet out on the turn or just check called. UTG is very loose and unpredictable, he is very likely to raise with TPWK and ill play paint/crap kicker at will



Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP2 folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

[reubenf]

I bet the flop, check the turn.

[kenstall]

I'd prefer to bet the flop here and see where everyone is. I love raisers here because it tells me they're protecting something that I can draw on if the odds are correct.
No reason to check raise the flop. You want lots of callers, but your extra bet wont push out the other drawers because of the odds.
Check-call the turn
Check-fold the river

[NigelTufnel]

I think the check raise on the flop is good with 6 players if UTG has been consistantly aggressive, given he's on your immediate left. The opportunity to trap 5 people for an extra bet probably offsets the possibility of a check-around. In a really passive game, I'd bet.

On the turn, you don't have any other outs besides the flush. With 4 players and with odds of 4.2:1 to hit your flush, why bet? You don't really want to knock people out, and betting probably won't be an effective semi-bluff that'll take down the pot versus 4 players. I would want to see the river as cheaply as possible.

But then again, I'm kind of weak-tight.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd prefer to bet the flop here and see where everyone is. I love raisers here because it tells me they're protecting something that I can draw on if the odds are correct.
No reason to check raise the flop. You want lots of callers, but your extra bet wont push out the other drawers because of the odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

With a flush draw, you're basically *ALWAYS* getting odds to draw. Bet-call or check-raise are both fine options, depending on how agressive players are and where the agression will be coming from.
The check-raise on the flop is not about driving out players, but it's about drawing some equity out of the many callers. The flush comes in about 35% of the time, and it's usually good when it does come in, which makes the check-raise a +EV move because everyone is trapped.

[SCfuji]

i would check call all the way and fold when i miss on the river. i dont like check raising to build a pot with just a flush draw. utg could have 3-bet possibly turning this into a heads up match with you out of position with the worst hand.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
i would check call all the way and fold when i miss on the river. i dont like check raising to build a pot with just a flush draw. utg could have 3-bet possibly turning this into a heads up match with you out of position with the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

[SCfuji]

im not liking this play when there are 6 others in this pot and im going for the 8 high flush. if you turn my 8 into at least the J ill go for the pot builder.

[Shillx]

You have to be really careful with hands like this. You have nothing to go with your weak flush draw. I would save plays like this for times when you have...

1) Draw to the nuts or 2nd nuts. You have to understand that a draw to the 3rd nut flush isn't all that strong. Half of the time you get into a flush over flush situation, your 3rd nut flush will lose to a better flush (not to mention boats).

2) You have strong overcards that might be able to win you the pot. So having something like 87 on a 632 flop doesn't count.

3) You have a straight draw to go with it.

Brad

[SCfuji]

this accomplishes nothing but give away your hand. if you guys do want to bet this flop bet this hand all the way until you miss on the river.

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
i would check call all the way and fold when i miss on the river. i dont like check raising to build a pot with just a flush draw. utg could have 3-bet possibly turning this into a heads up match with you out of position with the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

y helo thar results-oriented thinking!

Check-raising this flop is a bad idea, but it has nothing to do with what you're talking about. You don't want to c/r because you don't know if there will be a bet, or where it will come from. It would suck to check, only to have it go all the way around to the button and have him bet. Now you're forced to call, because raising will blast others out of the pot and ruin your equity edge.

I would argue that check-calling is the WORST play on this flop against this many opponents. You have a large edge over your opposition - exploit it!

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
y helo thar results-oriented thinking!

Check-raising this flop is a bad idea, but it has nothing to do with what you're talking about. You don't want to c/r because you don't know if there will be a bet, or where it will come from. It would suck to check, only to have it go all the way around to the button and have him bet. Now you're forced to call, because raising will blast others out of the pot and ruin your equity edge.

I would argue that check-calling is the WORST play on this flop against this many opponents. You have a large edge over your opposition - exploit it!

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be pretty strong after shoveling this load of BS. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Listen to Fuji for he is very wise.

Brad

It is silly to think that it would suck for it to get checked to the button (who then bets). We make money on all bets that go in no matter who is doing the betting (provided that at least 4 people are putting in bets). We don't have the type of hand we can risk getting 3-bet thus knocking everyone out. If the button bets and everyone calls, we make out pretty well EV wise.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
y helo thar results-oriented thinking!

Check-raising this flop is a bad idea, but it has nothing to do with what you're talking about. You don't want to c/r because you don't know if there will be a bet, or where it will come from. It would suck to check, only to have it go all the way around to the button and have him bet. Now you're forced to call, because raising will blast others out of the pot and ruin your equity edge.

I would argue that check-calling is the WORST play on this flop against this many opponents. You have a large edge over your opposition - exploit it!

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be pretty strong after shoveling this load of BS. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Listen to Fuji for he is very wise.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I kew this was coming, and was hoping it would be more of a "reaming out" /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Shill is right. Fuji is smart. This wasn't results oriented.

[SCfuji]

cool. hopefully one of the other 20 players in this hand had two higher /images/graemlins/spade.gif and you can help him exploit his edge even more.

or...

you can bet and since we dont know where the raise is coming from it could come from the person immediately to our left! that would be awesome.

so many options left to do...

im not a weak tight player. its just with this flop and this hand and all these players i would prefer to see how the hand develops.


[ QUOTE ]
i would check call all the way and fold when i miss on the river [ QUOTE ]
y helo thar results-oriented thinking!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

okay so if i added "and bet when i hit my spade on the river" would that not be results oriented?

[AlmightyJay]

I've been brought up by this forum and by SSH to exploit edges whenever possible. You have a significant edge on this flop. Why is it WRONG in this case to build a pot with such a large equity edge? What makes this case so exceptional?

[AlmightyJay]

I think "if" is a preferable word to "when" in both sentences /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Also, aren't the odds that two people have the same flush (with only three to the suit on board) pretty miniscule?

[SCfuji]

oooh praise from one of the good micro posters. my eyes are watery.

[SCfuji]

id be on your side if my flush draw were much higher.

[NigelTufnel]

Shillx,
Just curious, when you mention the 3rd nut flush getting beat 50% of the time, is that just a way of saying it's vulnerable, or did you literally mean 50%?

I just went through my (small @14K hands) PT database and found ten high or lower flushes won 16 out of 20 times for me. Very small sample I know, but just curious if representative of small flushes in general.

[SCfuji]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG bets, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls,

[/ QUOTE ]

three others excluding yourself and the better in this hand say they are interested in this pot. in this hand, if hero had hit his flush and it was good i would still say the same things. this is a hand that can get redrawn on as well if the turn and river comes spades.

now lets say for some odd reason we limped this on the button because it looked like it would be a nice pot and the flop action was identical so when it came to us i would advocate raising. the reward of getting free cards and building a pot, in my mind, outweighs the risk of the pot getting 3-bet. in this scenario we have position and if another spade comes we can see how the action develops in front of us and see if somebody else has bigger spades in their hand or if the board pairs bla blablabllbadlgjldfg.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
bla blablabllbadlgjldfg.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

[SCfuji]

i try my best.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Shillx,
Just curious, when you mention the 3rd nut flush getting beat 50% of the time, is that just a way of saying it's vulnerable, or did you literally mean 50%?

I just went through my (small @14K hands) PT database and found ten high or lower flushes won 16 out of 20 times for me. Very small sample I know, but just curious if representative of small flushes in general.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha no the 3rd nut flush will win much more then 50% of the time. Let's say that we are playing 10 handed and everyone goes to a showdown every single hand:

Let's say that we hold Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Board reads J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

We have the 3rd nut flush. We are up against 9 other random hands, and ~23% of the time at least one of them will have a flush (you can figure this out). To prevent making up bogus numbers, here is how we figure out the chance that no one else has a flush:

Approx. (1 - (8*7/44*43))^9 = .763

So of that 23% there is another flush out there, about 50% of the time it will be larger then ours. Here are the possible combos:

AK, A9, A8, A7, A5, A4, A3 = 7
K9, K8, K7, K5, K4, K3 = 6
98, 97, 95, 94, 93 = 5
87, 85, 84, 83 = 4
75, 74, 73 = 3
54, 53 = 2
43 = 1

We can beat 15 possible flushes and we lose to 13. So that makes us 15:13 favorite (close to 50%) to have the best flush (assuming that only one other one is out there). Sometimes however there will be 3 flushes out there (even 4) in which case our odds drop significantly. So eventhough we might be a 15:13 favortie against a single flush, we will be sucking wind if we know that 2 flushes are out against us (which makes it close to even money that our flush will be good). FWIW, you will see flush over flush over flush about 1.6% of the time you make a flush when 3 flush cards are on board.

Brad

[NigelTufnel]

Makes perfect sense, thanks for walking through it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jaxUp]

Just curious shill, do you use combinatorial mathematics, or list out all possibilities and count them?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious shill, do you use combinatorial mathematics, or list out all possibilities and count them?

[/ QUOTE ]

A few months back I taught myself some aspects of game theory and I'm thinking that it is what you need to do to move your game to the next level. So a decent player will begin to develop hand reading skills after he figures out odds and whatnot. It will work for a certain amount of time, but at a certain point many of your opponents will be trying to read your hand as well and you need to go deeper into it to get an advantage.

So your thinking will evolve from "well my opponent has a flush" to "well he will have a flush 50%, be bluffing 5% and have two pair/set 45%". At some point then you have to not only figure out what his hand might be, but also what he will do with those range of hands. So as an example:

You have AA and raise preflop. On the turn you are playing HU against an unremarkable opponent who check/raises you on a QJ65r board.

If the pot is laying you 5:1 at this point, you should fold. If it laying you 6:1, you should call and call on the river if you improve. Interesting...

Brad

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been brought up by this forum and by SSH to exploit edges whenever possible. You have a significant edge on this flop. Why is it WRONG in this case to build a pot with such a large equity edge? What makes this case so exceptional?

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont have a significant edge. You have a small flush draw, thats it. You think pairing one of your hole cards is going to take down this pot to you? How do you feel about your small flush when a 4th spade hits. Yes you have a good draw. Allow me to quote NPA Ed Miller.

SSH, pg 134-135

Hand shown is 7d 6d. Flop is As, Qd, 10d. Here is what Ed has to say. "This is a strong hand. Despite your small cards, you will typically win if you make your flush. However, unlike the previous examples, you have almost no chance to win by spiking a pair. There is no reason to protect your hand except maybe if the pot is ver large. (In that case, you should try to force out single diamonds such as the 9d that would beat you if the turn and river both came diamonds). Next paragraph leads off with this statement. " Indeed, the chief concern when evaluating the strength of a typical flush draw is how likely you are to win if you miss your flush but make a pair.

Also in a footnote on page 156 it says 1. you have a small straight or flush draw with no overcards. Since you will probably win only if you make your draw , but you will almost certainly win if you do, you do not need to protect your hand.


Now I realize I didnt address your point of equity edges. In this case, your equity is probably right around 35 percent. Basically you have no need to drive anyone out of the pot at this point. If I make my flush on the turn, then I am definitely going to try and drive people out because I have a lot more equity at that point and I want to protect my hand against any higher single card flush draws. Also on the turn it should theoretically be somewhat easier to give my opponents incorrect odds.

I do however agree with the point about the check raise attempt with no preflop aggression shown. Unless you know the guy to your right is a compulsive flop bettor. But again, there is no need to drive anyone out at this piont.

EDIT: I think my first statment in this reply is a bit strong. You do have a strong draw, but I dont think your equity edge at this point is that significant. Hope this clarifies a bit.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just curious shill, do you use combinatorial mathematics, or list out all possibilities and count them?

[/ QUOTE ]

A few months back I taught myself some aspects of game theory and I'm thinking that it is what you need to do to move your game to the next level. So a decent player will begin to develop hand reading skills after he figures out odds and whatnot. It will work for a certain amount of time, but at a certain point many of your opponents will be trying to read your hand as well and you need to go deeper into it to get an advantage.

So your thinking will evolve from "well my opponent has a flush" to "well he will have a flush 50%, be bluffing 5% and have two pair/set 45%". At some point then you have to not only figure out what his hand might be, but also what he will do with those range of hands. So as an example:

You have AA and raise preflop. On the turn you are playing HU against an unremarkable opponent who check/raises you on a QJ65r board.

If the pot is laying you 5:1 at this point, you should fold. If it laying you 6:1, you should call and call on the river if you improve. Interesting...

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

At first glance it looked as if you did not answer my question, but after reading through it a couple of times, I see that you have answered it on a much more significant level than I anticipated it. Thanks.