How do I play this river? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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thulin888

03-09-2005, 04:03 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls, Button calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, Button raises, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (17.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, Button folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 22.75 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has Qs As (two pair, queens and fours).
Hero has Ah Kh (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 22.75 BB. 

Regards

davelin

03-09-2005, 04:05 PM

River is fine. Turn was terrible.

istewart

03-09-2005, 04:05 PM

I'd like to get more bets in on the flop, and probably just lead out and get raised by button on the river. Surprised he folded /images/graemlins/smile.gif

milesdyson

03-09-2005, 04:06 PM

A better question to ask is "How do I play the flop and turn, and why?"

I, unfortunately, can not answer this question now!

dkernler

03-09-2005, 04:12 PM

I think the bigger concerns are the flop and turn. You have two callers on the flop, so every bet is +EV. On the turn, unless you think you have significant fold equity, a bet is terrible IMO. Depending on a read of Button, I just bet the river. Getting checked through would be a disaster.

Isura

03-09-2005, 04:20 PM

3-bet the flop, with 3 players it's slightly +EV on the flush draw alone, but you also have good overcards and a backdoor straight draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]
Betting is good if you are sure button will raise and UTG will fold somelike like AQ,KQ and also AK. It clears up your overcard outs will be winners quite often in this spot. It's also for value if UTG decides to call.

River, I'd bet out considering the way you played it. It's going to be hard for Button to put you on a flush at this point. Best scenerio is that button raises, UTG calls so you can 3-bet. There's also a chance button will chicken out and not bet the river when the flush comes (he probably fears UTG was on a flush draw considering UTG played so passively).

Gambler

03-09-2005, 04:20 PM

So 3-bet the flop, check call the turn? Why not 3-bet the flop and bet the turn if not capped on flop?

Isura

03-09-2005, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So cap the flop, check call the turn? Why not cap the flop and bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Word.

davelin

03-09-2005, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the flop, with 3 players it's slightly +EV on the flush draw alone, but you also have good overcards and a backdoor straight draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]
Betting is good if you are sure button will raise and UTG will fold somelike like AQ,KQ and also AK. It clears up your overcard outs will be winners quite often in this spot. It's also for value if UTG decides to call.

River, I'd bet out considering the way you played it. It's going to be hard for Button to put you on a flush at this point. Best scenerio is that button raises, UTG calls so you can 3-bet. There's also a chance button will chicken out and not bet the river when the flush comes (he probably fears UTG was on a flush draw considering UTG played so passively).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to disagree with your turn analysis, putting in 2BB's on the turn to increase your chances of winning slightly isn't worth it. Even if UTG calls, I don't think your equity is high enough to make it +EV.

davelin

03-09-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So 3-bet the flop, check call the turn? Why not 3-bet the flop and bet the turn if not capped on flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're still drawing on the turn. Our fold equity and betting equity isn't high enough IMO.

Gambler

03-09-2005, 04:28 PM

Dumb question, but what is fold equity?

davelin

03-09-2005, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dumb question, but what is fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone may explain it better but I usually think of it as the % of times you'll win the pot right there by getting everyone else to fold.

Gambler

03-09-2005, 04:30 PM

OK, hadn't heard that term before. Thanks.

dkernler

03-09-2005, 04:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dumb question, but what is fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not dumb at all. It's basically how likely you think your bet will cause someone with a better hand to fold.

On the flop, we have about 36% equity on our flush draw, so we have enough equity to cap against 2 other since we put in only 33% of the money. On the turn, with only a card to come, our equity (on the flush draw alone) is down to about 17%, so we'd be putting in more than our share just on the flush draw. On the other hand, if we think a bet will cause someone to fold, we can increase that equity percentage.

I'm sure others could give specific examples, but that's the general idea. At least as I understand it. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

ErrantNight

03-09-2005, 04:33 PM

3-bet the flop.

check/call the turn.

bet the river.

ErrantNight

03-09-2005, 04:35 PM

yeah, betting the turn, particularly hoping it gets raised, is terrible.

GrunchCan

03-09-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dumb question, but what is fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone may explain it better but I usually think of it as the % of times you'll win the pot right there by getting everyone else to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow determine the chance that if you bet your opponent(s) will fold. Multiply the pot size by that chance. The resulting value is your fold equity. If this is higher than the size of the bet, it is +EV to bet.

Example: Pot is $20 in a 2/4 game. You have 1 opponent behind you, and you decide (somehow) that if you bet the turn (1 BB or $4), there is a 25% chance he will fold. 25% of the pot ($20) is $10, so the EV of betting is $10-$4=+$6. You should bet.

There are 2 gotchas here. First, estimating the chance that your opponent will fold is hard to do right. It requires good reads and a good estimation of your'e opponents' range of likely hands. Second, fold equity decreases geometrically with each additional opponent. That's becasue the chance that you will win the pot with a bet is the chance that the 1st opponent will fol, multiplied by the chance that the second opponent will fold, etc.

dkernler

03-09-2005, 04:42 PM

Can it also be considered a boost of our own pot equity? Hypothetically, if we're up against two on the turn with a flush draw, and we bet and get a call and a fold, hasn't the fold increased our pot equity? (I'm not sure if it's enough to make a bet worthwhile - just trying to see if it can be thought of this way.)

GrunchCan

03-09-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can it also be considered a boost of our own pot equity? Hypothetically, if we're up against two on the turn with a flush draw, and we bet and get a call and a fold, hasn't the fold increased our pot equity? (I'm not sure if it's enough to make a bet worthwhile - just trying to see if it can be thought of this way.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes yes & sometimes no.

Let's be a little more specific with the example you provided. Say the Hero has an NFD that has 0% chance of winning without improvement, but will win 100% of the time if he hits his flush. Then, Hero's equity hasn't changed just becasue there's 1 fewer opponent - it's still about 20% with 1 card to come.

Some hands like 1 pair do better against fewer opponents, and in those instances Hero's equity might improve as a result of people folding.

So, it all depends on Hero's hand, the board and the opponents.

dkernler

03-09-2005, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's be a little more specific with the example you provided. Say the Hero has an NFD that has 0% chance of winning without improvement, but will win 100% of the time if he hits his flush. Then, Hero's equity hasn't changed just becasue there's 1 fewer opponent - it's still about 20% with 1 card to come.

Some hands like 1 pair do better against fewer opponents, and in those instances Hero's equity might improve as a result of people folding.

So, it all depends on Hero's hand, the board and the opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
That makes perfect sense - thanks. It makes more of a difference if we have a hand with some showdown value already. Gotcha.