WHO HAS THE BEST OF IT????

[hbgolfpro]

Lets assume the pot is $500. There is one card to come and we are heads up against our opponent. We both have $100 each. Lets further assume we have a made hand and our opponent is 4-1 against making his hand which is good if it hits. If we bet $100 at him, he is getting 6-1 pot odds as a 4-1 dog. He is perfectly correct in calling and his EV for each call is $40. However we are a 4-1 favorite and are most certainly correct in betting. So that means the we are both NOT making mistakes. Poker thoery tells us that when one player makes a mistake, the other player gains. One player loses money and one player makes money. Since neither of us are making a mistake, who gains? Who gets the best of it and why?

[axioma]

for the pot to have got to that size, someone quite likely
made a maistke eariler in the hand.

also, there are exceptions to the FTOP.

[jedi]

No one is making a mistake, but his underdog call is costing you money since some of the time he'll lose the hand.

If he folds, you win $500, 100% of the time, your EV = 500
If he calls the 100, you win $600 4 times and lose 100 1 time. EV = (600*4 - 100*1)/5 = $460
If you check, giving him the free card you'll win $500 4 times and $0 once. EV = (500*4 - 0*1/5) = $400

He gains, you lose though neither of you are making a mistake in your case.

[rickr]

You are making a mistake technically by not charging the correct price to make his draw a mistake. But in reality, if that's all the money you both have at the table it's as much as you can charge. Lots of variables, but I would lean towards it was the made hand making the mistake.

Later,
Rick

[Spekkio]

The mistake is not going all-in or putting him all-in, thus leaving him pot committed to a drawing hand and leaving the results to lady luck.

[burningyen]

Your EV is $460 and his EV is $40. I'd say you're getting the best of it.

[CMonkey]

You clearly have the best of it on the turn decision. 80% of the time you win $100 and 20% of the time you lose $100. However, your opponent is not making a mistake by calling. He is accepting the -EV turn play with regards to putting up $100 because the turn decision overall is +EV given the pot size.

The mistake came earlier. On the turn, you are profiting off your opponent's $100 call. You are also profiting off whomever made a mistake by helping build the $500 in the pot on previous streets. Your opponent is profiting only off whomever made a mistake by helping build the $500 pot; he is losing money to your $100 bet (he would prefer simply to see the river card for free). If you started the hand heads up, then one of you made a mistake on the previous street by raising/calling improperly. If there were more players, then the additional players who are no longer in the hand could also have been sources of mistakes.

For example, you're heads up with AA against your opponent's KQs. You raise preflop, your opponent makes a mistake and calls to make the pot $200 (for the sake of argument). The flop comes 9-high with two of your opponent's suit. You bet $150, your opponent makes a mistake and calls to make the pot $500. The turn is a blank, and you bet your remaining $100. Now your opponent calls and is correct in doing so because the decision is +EV given the turn situation he is facing. But the line your opponent chose throughout the hand is -EV overall. It's just that by calling the turn, he will lose less money per hand than he otherwise would if he folded the turn.

[Spekkio]

That's why I say that you should push it all on the flop, giving him 2:1 odds for a 3:1 draw

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker thoery (sic) tells us that when one player makes a mistake, the other player gains. One player loses money and one player makes money. Since neither of us are making a mistake, who gains? Who gets the best of it and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Both players gain. The bettor makes a profitable bet. The caller makes a profitable call. Both players can profit because of the size of the pot.

Paul

[jdl22]

What you are saying indicates a likely flaw in your use of logic. The FTOP says that if a player makes an error in a heads up pot the other benefits. You have created an example where neither player makes an error and are still trying to apply the theorem. If no player makes an error the FTOP does not apply.

In general if you have an "if A then B" statement you can't conclude anything based on A being false. If B is false you can conclude that A is false and if A is true then B is true as well. These are the only two conclusions that can be reached.

Look at this problem the other way. No player lost money, both players maximised their EV and hence neither player made an error.

As said before both players have the best of it. This is true since both are making +EV decisions and will win money in the long run doing so. The reason for this is the size of the pot. Depending on how the pot was created one player could have played the hand overall in a -EV way, but the decision on the last round is still +EV.

[k_squared]

Just to add to the conversation...

It is like when a bad player puts money in the pot pre-flop with junk cards but catches a hand or a draw. Just because they made a bad pre-flop decision doesn't mean their post-flop decision is a bad one...

Also you have to consider the money in the pot before the decision as 'dead money' it is money to be won, but not money you have to contribute. In fact, the dead money in the pot is what makes the decision making so complicated. How much money is in the pot drastically changes what is the right play in many situations. So, as the pot gets bigger in proportion to the bet it is likely that more people are making the correct decision by playing draws, even long shots.

Sometimes everyone in the pot can be playing their hands correctly after the flop!!! because of how much money went in pre-flop. The irony is of course the only thing that makes their decision correct after the fact is often that they made a significant error before the flop and so artificailly adjusted the odds needed to place the bet by putting too much of their own money in the pot.

my 2 cents,
-k_squared

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
The FTOP says that if a player makes an error in a heads up pot the other benefits.

[/ QUOTE ]
correct me if im wrong, but the ftop is that if your opponent plays differently than he would if he knows your cards, then you gain (and vice versa). eh, semantics i guess.
both these players can gain from mistakes of players who have folded(assuming there were other players). one is just gaining more than the other.

[jdl22]

You are correct. By mistake I meant playing differently from if she could see the other player's cards.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
You are correct. By mistake I meant playing differently from if she could see the other player's cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
i know
semantics /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Since neither of us are making a mistake, who gains? Who gets the best of it and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just one point. You clearly have the best of it here because of the pot equity. However, he gains from his call because it's the most +EV move he can make. Consequently, you lose from his move but you still clearly have the best of it. Does that make any sense?