Roger Clemens

[tbach24]

I just picked him in the 4th round of my fantasy draft and I thought it was a fantastic pick. However, a couple of the kids in the league said it was a bad pick because he might not try this season. I disagree with them and still think it to be a great pick, but would like to hear what others think. The guy put up fantasic numbers last year and I think he can repeat them.

[chaas4747]

Roger Clemens attitude towards the game will never allow him not to try. Good pick.

[Shajen]

He's one of the most competitive people on the planet.

The kids in your league are wrong.

The only worry you will have is if he gets hurt during the season and then retires again.

[tbach24]

I need to take a closer next round.
Left are: Guardado, BJ Ryan, Danny Kolb, Jose Mesa

Ryan was the best in terms of statistics last year, but I'm worried about his transition to closer. So, should it be Ryan or Guardado?

[andyfox]

He might not have a good year, but it won't be for lack of trying. Despite his claims to only want to win a championship, he's at bottom a selfish guy and wants to put up good numbers. While Houston's offense, minus Beltran, might make it difficult for him to go 18-4 again, he's certainly going to try. I know he has 17 million reasons to come back (or whatever his salary is), but I think he's pitching, at least to some degree, for the sake of his lifetime record and he'll want the glossiest numbers possible.

[B00T]

although you probably picked already, I hope you took Kolb.

[sublime]

. However, a couple of the kids in the league said it was a bad pick because he might not try this season

nice to know the stupidity factor is still a usefull tool in gauging EV.

how the fcuk can somebody think a elite professional athlete would just stop trying?

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
. However, a couple of the kids in the league said it was a bad pick because he might not try this season

nice to know the stupidity factor is still a usefull tool in gauging EV.

how the fcuk can somebody think a elite professional athlete would just stop trying?

[/ QUOTE ]

See Henderson, Rickey. I do agree that it's pretty poor to say that of Roger Clemens.

[MicroBob]

Because radio sports-talk morons run rampant with many a misconception regarding the world that is american professional athletics.

Of course, Clemens did let himself put on weight and he certainly didn't see terribly competitive in his last years at BOS before Duquette traded him.

But to somehow think that he wouldn't bother trying this year for whatever reason still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me...particularly for a guy who is obviously a fierce competitor.


Interestingly, I had a similar situation. I wasn't specifically going after Clemens....but when he was still around when it came to me (2nd or 3rd round, not sure...16 teams) there was no way I was going to pass it up.


Same thing happened in the 1st round. I picked 7th and nobody wanted Barry Bonds. I certainly didn't think I would want Barry Bonds either but the up-side was too huge to let the 8th or 9th team grab him.


So now I've got the aging Hall-of-famers....one of the best hitters EVER and one of the best pitchers EVER....albeit a little past their prime.

[tbach24]

Kolb got 40 k's in 70 IP last year. I didn't consider him a valid option. Ryan got 125. Ryan has better ERA and WHIP. It's just that I'm not sure about his transfer from setup man to closer. Guardado is a better option than Kolb and is proven.

[B00T]

Kolb closed for one year and going to Atl from Mil he will get more saves.

I was under the impression you wanted a closer for the Saves catergory. He might not have a low ERA or WHIP compared to some others, but he is going to get mores saves than any of the others mentioned.

[tbach24]

Ryan is moving to closer. Milwaukee closers always get a disproportinite (sp?) amount of saves. It's a fantasy point league so saves aren't the only concern.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Roger Clemens attitude towards the game will never allow him not to try. Good pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet that a lot of Red Sox fans who remember his last few years with the team would beg to differ with you.

[hutz]

What you haven't told us is how many teams are in the league. If it's just you and three or four buddies, that's too early. If it's a standard sized league, you got good value.

[hutz]

It depends on how your league is scored. You mentioned it's a points-based league. If saves are worth the same or less than strikeouts, WHIP, or other categories, then Ryan's your guy. Kolb is in Atlanta now (no longer a Brewer) and should do well this year. Guardado is an injury risk (he's already hurting). Mesa is a major job loss risk and could turn flammable at any moment. In a standard roto league, I'd rate 'em Kolb, Ryan, Guardado, [pick someone else besides Mesa]. In a points league, I'd say Kolb/Ryan, Guardado, [pick someone else besides Mesa].

[tbach24]

Sorry, it's a 12-team point league and I had pick #10.
I'm pretty happy about my draft so far:

1- Schmidt
2- Sheets
3- Wagner
4- Clemens
5- Mora
6- Ryan

I have lots of SP's because their varience is higher (at the time I took Clemens, he was 90 FP ahead of the next best SP. The biggest discrepency in hitters was between Victor Martinez and Ivan Rodriguez (30 points)).

[B00T]

Closers are so undervalued in fantasy leagues.

I was about to test a theory in the 2+2 league thats running. I drafted 3 closers in my first 4 picks. I was thinking of packing 6, but by the time my picks came around it was not gonna fly.

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. However, a couple of the kids in the league said it was a bad pick because he might not try this season

nice to know the stupidity factor is still a usefull tool in gauging EV.

how the fcuk can somebody think a elite professional athlete would just stop trying?

[/ QUOTE ]

See Henderson, Rickey. I do agree that it's pretty poor to say that of Roger Clemens.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really dumb.

Rickey never stopped trying, he stopped being good. Rickey was the guy who at age 44 was playing in the independant league just 'cause he loved the game.

[hutz]

They're not undervalued in any of the (standard 4x4 roto) leagues I've been in over the past several years. They go for high salaries and/or high draft picks quite frequently. Granted, there are always one or two owners who fail to secure more than one closer, so they are either undervaluing closers or have some other half-baked theory that rarely pans out. Drafting three closers in the first four rounds, though? Hmmmm. I'd have to call that -EV. Even if you were able to corner the market, you're only going to get one point more than the guy who drafts two quality closers (or some combo of a good closer and two iffy ones) and finishes second in the category. Even worse, if you're talking about a league where middle-tier closers are available in the seventh or eighth rounds, you're still likely to find yourself fighting for first in saves with a guy who loads up in the middle rounds.

[bugstud]

4th round is too early

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
how the fcuk can somebody think a elite professional athlete would just stop trying?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shawn Kemp.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

See Henderson, Rickey. I do agree that it's pretty poor to say that of Roger Clemens.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really dumb.

Rickey never stopped trying, he stopped being good. Rickey was the guy who at age 44 was playing in the independant league just 'cause he loved the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you miss the part of his career where he stopped trying when he didn't get the contract he wanted? I'm not talking about recently, this was when he was in his prime.

[B00T]

I am testing out the theory. If potentially you are sacking wins, you will make up for it with saves (obviously) and a dominated WHIP and ERA.

I have had success in previous leagues with a high ratio of elite closers than elite pitchers.

Lets give the potential roster of 2SP, 2RP, and 4 P that are active on a given day. If you had 6 closers with 30 saves or above (like 6 of the top 10 closers in the league) going each and every day your strikeouts would be in close to that in range of a starting pitcher. Their ERA and WHIP will be heaps lower.

You could then keep 2 starters going on their normal days and rotate a 3rd in when its his turn. You wont surpass the IP threshold for the season.

Depending on your SP's I think this is a strategy where with the exception of wins you will be extrmely high in the other areas.

Again this is just a theory and I wasnt able to get enough closers fast enough to make this even testable.

[sublime]

Shawn Kemp.

did you miss the 'elite' part?

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Roger Clemens attitude towards the game will never allow him not to try. Good pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet that a lot of Red Sox fans who remember his last few years with the team would beg to differ with you.

[/ QUOTE ]

hi

[sublime]

I'd bet that a lot of Red Sox fans who remember his last few years with the team would beg to differ with you.

he was not really healthy those last 3-4 years and was still way above average during that span.

[sublime]

Did you miss the part of his career where he stopped trying when he didn't get the contract he wanted? I'm not talking about recently, this was when he was in his prime.

who said he stopped trying?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]

Rickey never stopped trying, he stopped being good. Rickey was the guy who at age 44 was playing in the independant league just 'cause he loved the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to disagree here. Rickey could still be good. He enjoys playing the game, but he does not enjoy working at the game.

[hoyaboy1]

Bad strategy. Afer a while you will have so many more saves than everyone it won't matter, and at that point you'd be much better off taking elite middle relievers, since you could get them much later.