AKo: a play-along hand [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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coinflip

03-09-2005, 11:16 AM

This seemed like one of those "huge pots" that sucked me in with a marginal hand, and in retrospect I'm not fond of my play. I thought I'd try posting a play-along hand and see if it works.

MP2 is 20/0/1.75, SB is 19/8.7/0.75, BB is 38/19/9 over about 35 hands. Preflop numbers are probably somewhat reliable, postflop less so due to small sample size.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB caps, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP2 raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero ...

30SB in pot already, and up to 32 if MP2 calls. I'm getting 1:16 here, but there may be a cap behind me and I might be drawing thin if AA/KK are out.

I need at least 3 outs to call (that'd give me 1:15) assuming no cap, and I figure my overcards to be worth at least that much. Comments? Should I have raised this flop?

bigmac366

03-09-2005, 11:28 AM

what kind of hand do you think mp-2 has. he called 3 cold preflop and raised the flop bet. might be a set, also could be TT-JJ. sb check raising the flop after capping preflop looks like atleast QQ. i know the odds are good but i'm folding here because i think your drawing nearly dead.

Redd

03-09-2005, 11:36 AM

A cap seems very likely here, which blows your pot odds even if you're still drawing live. I'd let the ace-high go on the flop against three agressors; especially with a passive PF-capper and 3-bettor.

Mattymar

03-09-2005, 11:40 AM

I think I'd fold. Not only does it seem like the SB has either AA or KK, you might be up against a potential set from MP2 or the BB. To me the only way you would not be drawing dead is if SB has QQ and one of the other two has JJ-88 or 66(which is not unreasonable at 2/4 but still not likely). I don't like the chances here.

sweetjazz

03-09-2005, 11:51 AM

You don't have the best hand now.
You likely don't have 6 outs, and you could be drawing dead (to a flopped set) or very thin (to AA).
None of your outs are to anything near the nuts.
Even if you do improve, you are vulnerable to redraws with 3 to a straight on board.

I'd fold.

Fat Nicky

03-09-2005, 11:55 AM

i'd fold for all reasons already mentioned. you have nothing going for you in this hand. putting any more bets in is spewing.