Making thin calls with 99

[mungpo]

I only have 50 hands on MP2 who is a 22/6 player.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (11.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

I think I was pushing my luck with this hand. Results will be posted in a bit.

[istewart]

Even with the gutshot on the flop I don't like the cold-call, especially given the possibility of another raise from MP1.

[hate]

I generally dump 99 to a raise preflop, but I think you need to either 3-bet or fold this, that'll most likely change the flop play to your advantage.

[Vern]

[ QUOTE ]
I generally dump 99 to a raise preflop, but I think you need to either 3-bet or fold this, that'll most likely change the flop play to your advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Buckmulligan]

Raise preflop. It's worth a an extra bet to drive out those pesky Ax,Kx,Qx,Jx in the blinds and behind you.

Fold the flop.

[jrz1972]

After the flop has been bet and raised in front of you, what are the odds that your underpair is currently ahead? What are the odds that it will still be ahead at showdown?

Looks like an easy fold to me.

[MrWookie47]

Since you don't want to see the 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and you wouldn't even be too enthusiastic about seeing a 9, especially the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, you've got _maybe_ four outs here. You're getting 11.5:2 on an about 10:1 shot, assuming you're behind. I'd be very surprised if MP2 was raising a draw here, since his raise could likely knock out you and BB. I think you should fold the flop.

[Durs522]

I would probably play the hand the same as you preflop, especially with no reads on the raiser. On the flop I think you have to dump this hand. There's no sense in cold-calling 2 bets with the overcard and flush draw out there. Like one reply stated you're not drawing to very many outs and unless you hit one of them your hand is not likely to hold up.

[DMBFan23]

I am a haiku machine.

call for 5 to 1?
second pair, two flush, straight board
can't call for two cold

EDIT: I should elaborate more on this one, 17 syllables isn't enough really.

basically, the coordinated nature of this board makes it more likely to have hit your opponents. if it has hit them, you are drawing to dubious set outs (in that it might make an opponent a straight) and slightly less dubious 8 outs. (the 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is a little dirty though). in addition, since it went bet-raise to you, you're going to have to call more turn bets if you miss. if your hand is in fact best, your oppoenents are likely betting and raising with draws that may have an equity share of up to half of this pot. I believe that due to the possible flush redraw against you, combined with the potential of a split or a loss of action should you catch an 8, combined with the large quantity of overcards that can beat you on the turn+river, creates a severe reverse implied odds scenario here. if the pot were larger, your combined winning chances via straight, set, or having the best hand might merit a call. however, IMO this pot isn't big enough to go to war over.

[Rockfish]

[ QUOTE ]
I generally dump 99 to a raise preflop, but I think you need to either 3-bet or fold this, that'll most likely change the flop play to your advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

[SlantNGo]

Even with a relatively tight cold-caller in between?

[__Q__]

Yeah, I think the cold caller is the difference maker in this hand. You can't get yourself heads up with the intial raiser. You are either in really bad shape, or up against a bunch of overcards. I would fold it preflop, if there wasn't a cold caller infront, I'd probably 3bet.

[Jingleheimer]

Dumping this hand to a raise is not a good play, unless you know it's going to be only two people in the pot. At this point, you are playing it for set value and you have the implied odds to cold call here. This is true for all small PPs.

J

[mungpo]

Sorry about the delay on the result. I agree dumping this hand on the flop was the best option, especially since I was cold-calling two bets from a raise and a re-raise.

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 has As Qs (high card, ace).
Hero has 9h 9c (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.25 BB. </font>

[ErrantNight]

i'm alright with the preflop call but a raise would be aiiight... it might not be terrible to isolate them, even with the solid but slightly passive preflop cold caller (probably a strong indication he's making too many cold calls when he should be raising or folding). you have a strong hand and 3-way with some dead money from the blinds would be nice, but you can play this a little for set value, particularly if you think most of the time your call will inspire at least one more cold caller to limp along before the BB.

as you played it, i'm 3-betting the flop.

had you raised preflop and saw the same flop action, the larger pot would make a call ok despite the strength shown before you given your outs, and a raise far less appealing for those same reasons.

[ErrantNight]

it's not often i disagree with you for fear of ending up like that printer...

but i think this coordinated board, despite potentially having hit my opponents, also makes it more likely that MP2 is raising a draw, increases (very slightly) the chance that i'm actually ahead, and also makes it more likely that i can take a free card on this turn.

if the pot were bigger (say, had he raised preflop), the call would be fine... and i don't disagree that i can find a fold here regardless... i just feel that it might be worth a shot at trying to see the turn and river for another 1.5 BB.

[ErrantNight]

precisely why you should find a raise preflop or on the flop...

[mungpo]

I don't like the idea of 3-betting a player who raises in MP. Although, I do see why 3-betting preflop would be an option here, as would 3-betting the flop if I had not 3-bet preflop.

[detruncate]

Raise the turn. You don't want overcallers here. There's a chance you have the best hand, but it's very vulnerable. The pot is big. You'd love to get it HU. It might buy you a free showdown UI.

[hate]

[ QUOTE ]
Even with a relatively tight cold-caller in between?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a relatively tight cold-caller then I fold. I'm saying I will normally fold this or 3-bet it, and cold-calling is the worst of 3 options. It changes flop play significantly allowing you to cheaply go to the turn or the river if you still play it aggressively, and BB calling 2 bets is a lot more uncommon than him calling 1 bet.

[SlantNGo]

I think a pre-flop fold is terrible. I would cold-call, then re-evaluate on the flop. There are many bad flops that I don't want to see with my 9s so I don't like the 3-bet... control on the flop means nothing if the flop comes up 2 overcards.

[hate]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a pre-flop fold is terrible. I would cold-call, then re-evaluate on the flop. There are many bad flops that I don't want to see with my 9s so I don't like the 3-bet... control on the flop means nothing if the flop comes up 2 overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then 3-bet. If there are many bad flops you don't want to see, then get the BB out and protect your nines. cold-calling is the worst option here. You'd 3-bet with tens for value and to kick people out, and if you think 9s can hold up UI like you would with tens, then a 3-bet is the best play. Coldcalling is just asking for drawers to hit some crap two-pair or making it more likely that BB will play his Kxs or Qxs and own you from the get-go. You're trying to advocate some kind of middle of the road play where you want it to set, but if it doesn't set you want to play it cheaply, but it doesn't work that way.

If you're playing for set value then you shouldn't be playing this, and if you're playing this for pair value then coldcalling is worse than 3-betting.

I went through some pokerstove simulations

Player 1 AA-TT, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo

Player 2 JJ-99, AQs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo

Player 3 99

Player 4 AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q2s, JTs-J2s, T9s-T2s, 98s-92s, 87s-82s, 76s-72s, 65s-62s, 54s-52s, 43s-42s, 32s

You've got slightly over 25% equity as I calculated here, and I was loose with my Player 2 range of hands and very loose with Player 4 ranges.

[SlantNGo]

I disagree. Let's look at the possibilities after a cold-call...

1. More cold-callers after you and the BB stays in: Now you're playing it for set value, and the hand plays out about the same as if there was 1 more cold-caller before you (in which case, you would surely call, right?).

2. Everyone folds after you: Great, now you get position, and a chance to re-evaluate your hand strength based on this flop.

3. Everyone folds but the BB stays in: Not quite as good as (2) but it plays out about the same, just makes your flop judgment a bit tougher if you get an in-between flop, say Q84.

4. 1 cold-caller after you and the BB drops out: The worst possible scenario, but also the least likely IMO.

Out of these, the only one that I don't like is (4). I don't think our equity edge here is enough to 3-bet, and cold-calling only brings up 1 bad scenario. If I was immediately after PFR or if there was no cold-caller, I would be much more apt to 3-bet or fold.

Somewhat related question... do you limp or raise 99 UTG?

[hate]

I raise 99 UTG at anything but a very loose table where I can expect 4-6 limpers along with me, and my 7:1 set odds and other assorted hand possibilities are profitable. The fact of the matter is, to me if you get the BB to fold, it's a most definite coup. He's the one with the least equity, and he's the one who's most likely to have raggedy crap that's dangerous. I was told something plainly in another thread where I saw AA against 5 people on the flop, and the poster chose to checkraise to protect, even though only 3-outers would not have odds to call since the pot was so huge. sfer said something along the lines of "Just because I may only drop 3-outers doesn't mean I shouldn't do everything I can to protect it." The same situation applies here.

[SlantNGo]

I'm the opposite actually, I would prefer to raise 99 UTG at loose tables and limp it at tight tables. If I raise it at a tight table, I'm usually HU out of position (or 3-way if the BB hangs around, but still OOP relative to cold-caller). If I limp it, the pre-flop action behind me will determine how I can play this hand. If lots limp, I'm playing for a set... if it ends up 3-way, then I've achieved the same effect as raising and saved a bet in the process, and I can also expect the other limper to have a weaker hand in general than if he cold-called.

I'm all for protecting your hand, but in your situation, AA with 5 to the flop, he most certainly has a big equity edge. 99 following a raiser &amp; relatively tight cold-caller, I don't see this huge edge to protect.