unsettling stat discovered

[dark_horse]

i've been using PokerEdge and it also gives stats on yourself (although no one else can see them while you're a subscriber). i can't find this stat in PT, but in PE it tells me that out of roughly 2100 hands it has tracked, my turn aggression is 3.13 and "If Bet, Showdowns Won 56%" but check this out. "If Raise, Showdowns Won 29%". That's horribly low. I have compared stats in other players, fish and solid players alike, and I'm waaaaaay below the average on successful turn raises. What could this mean?

My river stats calm down a bit and are more normal - "If Bet, Showdowns Won 61%" and "If Raise, Showdowns Won 100%"

I'm up to 10k hands playing 1/2 on PP tracked with PT, and PT tells me my turn aggression is 2.51. On the flop it's 2.47 and on the river it's 1.47, and my PFR is 8.5%. I'm folding 11.6% of the time at the river and 17.8% of the time at the turn. So over 10k hands, I'm on the average more aggressive on the turn than on the flop. My total aggression factor, not including preflop, is 2.2. I think that's a little high. My winrate after 10,145 hands is -.32BB/100 hands. If it weren't for the rake I'd be up $500. But so would we all... Over the past 2 months, I've gotten my VP$IP at about 17%, but my W$SD is still a bit below 50%. Looks like I've got hand selection down, but my postflop play must really suck. Either that or I'm running bad. I feel like I'm running bad. What does being even after 10k hands mean? Does it matter that I actually won $500 but paid it in rake?

I guess I'm raising too many turns. Duh. But I never realized it. People tell me I play like a NL player, but I'm a terrible NL cash player. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[reubenf]

I really doubt that's a large enough sample size. Of those 2100 hands, how many are we talking about where you raised the turn and also saw a showdown?

[dark_horse]

PE doesn't get deep enough to tell you that. Where can I find this info in PT where I have a sample size of over 10k? I'm looking at the "More Detail" screen but don't see anything like that.

[reubenf]

[ QUOTE ]
PE doesn't get deep enough to tell you that. Where can I find this info in PT where I have a sample size of over 10k? I'm looking at the "More Detail" screen but don't see anything like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know but I also don't think 10k hands is going to be large enough for that stat. By all means, though, get a second opinion.

[dark_horse]

At the bottom of the More Detail window, PT tells me that I've folded to a river bet 157 out of 415 times, or 37.83%. I'm not sure how this stat differs from my player actions on the river, where it says I fold 11.59% of the time.

On the table just above the "Folded To River Bet" there are lots of percentages but I don't understand what they mean. But the numbers do differ greatly from the ones PE gives me. That makes sense since it seems you need a large sample size for this stat to be accurate, and I've got 4x the hands in PT than in PE, and variance must be great when you need a large sample size.

[sy_or_bust]

Your turn raise information probably indicates that your semi-bluff raises are too ambitious.

[dark_horse]

yes, i think i do instinctively raise on the turn when i hit a good draw with one or two overcards, tricking myself into thinking this is for value. of course, when i hit my MONSTER draws, i should be raising, but not the frequency i've been doing it in the past. maybe i should just be calling with correct odds instead and raise if i get there, and just call down if i hit one of my overs, all situation dependent, of course. i can remember many times raising and then not getting there, folding the river or feeling forced to call with ace high heads up, or some dinky pair.

truth be told, i guess i like raising and playing aggressively. it's more fun. so i justify the raises by telling myself it's to protect my overcards, or raising a good draw for value, etc. gotta put a leash on my ego and quit watching WPT. but then once i've put all those bets in there, by the river i have a very hard time folding, hence the sub 50% W$SD and high showdowns seen figures. gotta work on this.

[OrianasDaad]

Your fold percentages indicate that you have been playing too loosely, seeing too many flops. If you have been folding 30% of the hands you get dealt on the turn and river, something is very wrong. You shouldn't be getting to the turn and/or river with 30% of your hands.

Here's my stats by street for folds and aggression (respectively), for comparison:
NF: 11.09%
PF: 76.27%
F: 8.12% / 2.87
T: 2.57% / 2.43
R: 1.85% / 2.37

Some of the best advice that I ever got was to only play strong hands past the flop, and play them aggressively. It's in one (if not several) of the 2+2 books.

Here's what I did to improve my understanding of what is strong and what isn't. I downloaded a program called PokerStove. It's free, and it's easy to use. It's basically an odds calculator. I went through many of my "problem" hands like QTs, A7s where I was losing money and inputted them into PokerStove to see what my equity was against random hands from pre-flop through to the river. I then did it for the same hands, but inputting my opponent's holdings, noting the changes in a notebook.

Conclusions? I was drawing to second best hands way too often. Big leak, in my opinion. I was also getting sucked out on a fair portion of the time.

It also improved my ability to look at my cards and the board and estimate my equity with a better (but certainly not accurate) rate of certainty.

[dark_horse]

[ QUOTE ]
Your fold percentages indicate that you have been playing too loosely, seeing too many flops

[/ QUOTE ]
My flops seen is independent of my folding after the flop. My VP$IP is currently at a somewhat healthy level. Could come down a cinch (okay, a few percent). Over 10k hands (starting last December) it's at about 21%, but since the Feb 1, about 5.5k hands, it's at about 18%. So that's a good sign.
[ QUOTE ]
If you have been folding 30% of the hands you get dealt on the turn and river, something is very wrong. You shouldn't be getting to the turn and/or river with 30% of your hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you see this stat? I'm not getting to the turn and river 30% of all the cards I'm DEALT; maybe you mean for each time I see the flop, I'm getting to the turn or river 30% of the time?
[ QUOTE ]
Here's my stats by street for folds and aggression (respectively), for comparison:
NF: 11.09%
PF: 76.27%
F: 8.12% / 2.87
T: 2.57% / 2.43
R: 1.85% / 2.37

[/ QUOTE ]
What does NF mean? What's your sample size, and at what stakes? Using the same expression, here's mine (again, this is a 10k sample size, and my play has gradually become tighter since tracking began):

PF: 70.73%
F: 22.88% / 2.47
T: 17.79% / 2.51
R: 11.59% / 1.47

So it actually looks like I'm folding a lot more than you are. How can this be possible? Am I looking in the right place? It's the second to last "Player Actions" chart at the bottom of the More Detail window.

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the best advice that I ever got was to only play strong hands past the flop, and play them aggressively. It's in one (if not several) of the 2+2 books.

[/ QUOTE ]
This might actually be my problem, not because this is bad advice, but because I take it too far! I play tight preflop, but play a bit too aggressively when I don't hit. It's a habit I've noticed. I think people expect me to play good starting hands, but then play a bit maniacal on the flop and turn. A typical hand would go like this. I get dealt AK in LP. I raise PF, get a few callers. Flop comes rags. Checked to me, I bet. call, call, call. No help on the turn. Check to me, I check behind. No help on river, someone bets out, I fold. If nobody bets, I take a stab at the river and someone always calls with some small pair. I tend to raise on the big streets with a marginal hand to slow down someone betting into me. It scares them, but they generally end up winning the hand. I think I raise more than I call! It's hard to discuss these things without putting situations in the mix, I know.

[dark_horse]

i figured it'd just be easier to post screenshots of the stats. now that i've played 10k hands i should have an idea of where i'm headed. again, the VP$IP is too high because i've come down a lot since i started tracking this last december. all stats are for a full ring game of 1/2 limit. There's GOT to be something glaring in these stats. I just can't find it.

http://64.207.167.63/temp/stat1.jpg
http://64.207.167.63/temp/stat2.jpg
http://64.207.167.63/temp/stat3.jpg



And just to show how I've improved a little bit recently, here's the summary since 2/1/05. It's a bit over half the sample size. My VP$IP has come down, but strangely my Went To SD is up a bit. Might be because I was running well in Feb. But this month has been a killer. Before this week, I was up about $160 total.

http://64.207.167.63/temp/stat4.jpg

[DBG]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, i think i do instinctively raise on the turn when i hit a good draw with one or two overcards, tricking myself into thinking this is for value. of course, when i hit my MONSTER draws, i should be raising, but not the frequency i've been doing it in the past. maybe i should just be calling with correct odds instead and raise if i get there, and just call down if i hit one of my overs, all situation dependent, of course. i can remember many times raising and then not getting there, folding the river or feeling forced to call with ace high heads up, or some dinky pair.

truth be told, i guess i like raising and playing aggressively. it's more fun. so i justify the raises by telling myself it's to protect my overcards, or raising a good draw for value, etc. gotta put a leash on my ego and quit watching WPT. but then once i've put all those bets in there, by the river i have a very hard time folding, hence the sub 50% W$SD and high showdowns seen figures. gotta work on this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. I think this is exactly my problem, too.

Not trying to hijack or anything. I'm fairly new here, although I've been lurking for a little while. Just recently deposited 300BB for .50/1 play at PP and got PT. In just under 1k hands - I know its a very small sample size but all I have to work with - my turn aggression is also higher than flop agg. I'm actually kinda glad I read about someone else having this problem, too, since it shed some light on my problem.

Guess I just wanted to say hello & I will start posting hands on here as soon as I figure out how put the hands from the history onto the converter.

DBG