Ed says an unexpected turn bet does not mean trips. Hero raises.

[bobdibble]

Villian is a tool. He is loose passive pre-flop but is loose agro post flop and tends to make stupid blufs on the turn. For example, I saw him semi-bluf the turn with Q2o on a AKxx of clubs while holding the 2 of clubs (the queen was a diff suit)

I raise the turn for value. I don't expect him to fold.

After weird turn agression, he has folded on the river in the past. I have seen him bet out on the turn but, call someone else's raise, and then fold the river for a single bet. Should I have value bet the river?

Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (5.66 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.83 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

River: (7.83 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.83 BB

[tetonpete]

I like your line...I'd expect a checkraise with trips

[sweetjazz]

I'd bet the river. He'll call with a 3, a 6, a lower PP and probably A high, maybe even K high. The board looks not so scary, so he might easily think you're trying to push him off his hand. (He seems to think in those terms.)

Given that he will sometimes give up a complete bluff, your value bet is a little thinner. But I still think it's an easy value bet, not really that close.

If you didn't feel comfortable with the value bet on the river when a complete blank falls, why not just call him down on the turn, letting him fire another bluff at you on the river? You win the same amount when ahead, and lose less when he has a T.

It sounds like your read for the turn raise was correct, so I think I would follow it up with a value bet. I might reassess if the A /images/graemlins/club.gif hit on the river, but against this player, it might still be right. Just because he's folded the river before doesn't mean he'll do it again.

[sthief09]

yeah, the turn bet almost always means a draw. a turn check raise often means trips, but could also mean a draw. I like how you played this one.

[bobdibble]

My thinking was that he would call the raise on the turn with overcards, A or K high, or a flush draw, but would fold them on the river. He would call PP lower than the 88s on the river though.

There are far more combos of overcards, A/K highs, and flush draws than lower PP, so while I am ahead most of the time on the river, if I bet and he calls, I am good less than 50% of the time.

At least, this is my thinking as to why I didn't value bet the river. I'd like to get feedback on this though.

[Guruman]

I think that a bet on the river would be more of a semi-bluff (you said he's folded the river before) than a value bet.

1)fold preflop. A raise into a field of 8 more players in early position makes you the loose guy pre-flop.

2)The turn raise seems ill advised since this is the first time he's shown aggression. You're not ahead of many hands that will bet into you here, and the newly paired board can counterfeit your eights to any x9 hand that the villain might have had from the BB..

However, since he's BB, he could have something crazy like x3 for bottom pair or something like 67 or J7 for the gutshot that he may try to bluff you out with.

3)the pot may not be big enough to bet the river here. I'd still put him on relatively small cards based on his preflop and flop passiveness. That means that the flop and the river may have helped him just a little. take the free showdown and see what the hell he bet out with on the turn.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
There are far more combos of overcards, A/K highs, and flush draws than lower PP, so while I am ahead most of the time on the river, if I bet and he calls, I am good less than 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really only a concern if you afraid of being checkraised (to which you should probably fold). Whereas there may be more hands which will fold than will call, there are also many more logical combinations of worse hands which will call than there are better hands which will call or checkraise.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There are far more combos of overcards, A/K highs, and flush draws than lower PP, so while I am ahead most of the time on the river, if I bet and he calls, I am good less than 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really only a concern if you afraid of being checkraised (to which you should probably fold). Whereas there may be more hands which will fold than will call, there are also many more logical combinations of worse hands which will call than there are better hands which will call or checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that *if he calls* that he has a hand that I beat at least 50% of the time? If not, value betting this heads up is -EV.

[mantasm]

Fold preflop? Like, no. I would limp 88 and raise 99, but I don't play this level. I thought this hand was interesting, and I agree that he probably doesn't have the T, but it seems like if you're not going to bet the river you might as well just call a turn and river bet. This way you put in the same # of bets, don't make him fold if he's on a total bluff, and will definitely get to showdown.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, the turn bet almost always means a draw. a turn check raise often means trips, but could also mean a draw. I like how you played this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

No draw could be picked up on 4th here. The villian didn't find a flush draw or a straight draw (unless he flopped one). Raising might not be a bad idea here (fold to a 3-bet) but with a hand like AA I like calling down just in case the villian is bluffing the 2nd ten.

As a sidenote, this is why I usually lead out when I make my hand on 4th after being passive on the flop.

Brad

[sthief09]

I still see them take a stab at the turn with a draw. sure, it's much more probable when the turn puts a flush and straight draw out, but I tend to think most people would check-raise with trips. the only problem with raising is you ahve to fold to a 3-bet, costing you the opportunity for a suckout + 2 or 4 bets on the river. I still like it thought.

[mantasm]

Which do you prefer, calling both a turn and river bet or raising the turn (folding to a 3 bet) and checking the river?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Which do you prefer, calling both a turn and river bet or raising the turn (folding to a 3 bet) and checking the river?

[/ QUOTE ]


I like how he played it in this instance. the free showdown play might be one I'm overusing though.

[tetonpete]

on the other hand, he might actually have a 10...it wouldn't be too sophisticated of a play...in fact, if i thought someone suspected me of bluffing, i'd play it like this

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that *if he calls* that he has a hand that I beat at least 50% of the time? If not, value betting this heads up is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I'm saying that when he calls you are good more than 50% of the time.

[axioma]

you said you raised the turn for value, then checked the river through when a blank hits, which clearly makes no sense at all.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
you said you raised the turn for value, then checked the river through when a blank hits, which clearly makes no sense at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he will call the turn raise trying to hit an overcard or his flush draw, but will fold the bluf/semi-bluff on the river unimproved. Note, this was my read for this particular opponent.

[sweetjazz]

If you just called his turn bet, would he have bet into you on the river with anything (either thinking he has the best hand or trying to get you to fold or because he likes to hit the bet button for no discernible reason)?

Also, it's true he will beat you with any ten or nine. Will he not call with any six or three or smaller pocket pair? And don't be sure he won't call with an ace. Unless you have extensive data on the guy, I don't think you can assume he will fold all of his missed hands on the river. I realize you observed him doing that once, and this gives less value to your value bet. But you also said he bets into pots with absolutely nothing (like not even A high). He might easily fold J2 but call with A7 in this pot. How likely is it that he has a ten given that he didn't 3-bet the turn?

[sinfulslick18]

i would normally like to bet the river.

like that thought of the unexpected turn bet. it has been happening a lot to me on the river tho.

-sinful