Never fold in this spot! [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : Never fold in this spot!

Willluck

03-09-2005, 01:48 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB 3-bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (18 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (14 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (19 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, Button folds, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 23 BB

rmarotti

03-09-2005, 01:51 AM

Why would you even think of folding in this spot? And why not raise the turn?

PotatoStew

03-09-2005, 01:56 AM

Raise the turn.

Willluck

03-09-2005, 02:02 AM

I figure with the over callers it makes more sense just to call down, plus I figured a lot of the time I was behind.

Emmitt2222

03-09-2005, 02:03 AM

Has someone been reading WLLH lately and is now scared of those monsters under the bed? Why did you just call on the turn in this gigantic pot. Although MP3 comes out of nowhere he could have hit two pair or just a pair of jacks that he sees as being best because now it is top pair. You have to raise on the turn to protect your strong but still vulnerable holding in this big pot. And you sure as heck never ever fold that river bet because you are definitly good more than one in 20 times there.

PotatoStew

03-09-2005, 02:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Although MP3 comes out of nowhere he could have hit two pair or just a pair of jacks

[/ QUOTE ]

Or even a straight draw or a flush draw. Plenty of things worse than your hand. If he 3-bets, then you can start to worry a little bit.

Willluck

03-09-2005, 02:12 AM

I think this was just a huge tilt session for me...I am on like a 75BB losing streak right now and it just seems like it never ends, and I just got scared. also I didn't see a huge problem w/ just calling because of all of the overcallers...I certainly don't want a pair of tens or 9s or jacks to fold, and gutshots are still right to call 2 bbs in this pot.

CallMeIshmael

03-09-2005, 02:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
gutshots are still right to call 2 bbs in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it doesn't, a raise offers them 17:2 = 8.5:1.

This is why you MUST raise.

sweetjazz

03-09-2005, 02:23 AM

Failing to raise the turn is a BIG mistake. There are 16 cards (any 7,8,Q,K) that put four to a straight on board. Get your money in with the best of it. You have great pot equity here, as you are almost certainly ahead and have redraws when behind.

You can't make much money if you aren't willing to ram-and-jam when you have strong hands that have large pot equity edges over weaker hands that weaker players call down with.

When you raise the turn, you likely force button and BB to either call getting insufficient odds to draw to the best hand or you protect your hand against some potentially bad cards on the river. The board is really scary because athough you are likely best here and will likely end up best, there are a lot of cards that could come on the river to beat you (and you won't be able to tell which ones they are). That makes a turn raise imperative.

Willluck

03-09-2005, 02:26 AM

but considering implied odds they can profitably call.

JohnnyHumongous

03-09-2005, 02:28 AM

This is something that so many people misunderstand. Just because they are "right" to call doesn't mean you shouldn't raise it and force them to call. Sure they may be getting just enough odds, but if you only call they are getting much better (2x better) odds. You are basically making a side bet with them on the turn that you will win. And since you are clearly the favorite you should raise it up and actually INVITE the gutshots to call you at this higher price.

rmarotti

03-09-2005, 02:29 AM

Considering your hand's strength you should profitably raise.

sweetjazz

03-09-2005, 02:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this was just a huge tilt session for me...I am on like a 75BB losing streak right now and it just seems like it never ends, and I just got scared. also I didn't see a huge problem w/ just calling because of all of the overcallers...I certainly don't want a pair of tens or 9s or jacks to fold, and gutshots are still right to call 2 bbs in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

By that logic, anytime the pot is big, you may as well give free cards as soon as people are getting the odds to draw out on you. Calling 1 bet, the gutshot draws were getting a much better deal than calling 2 bets. They don't have anywhere the pot equity that you do. And what about the bets you missed because any jack was going to call 2 anyway? This was not the time to slowplay your hand for a variety of reasons; your hand was screaming for a turn raise. Also, MP3 might be the one with the jack. So you could end up isolating yourself against someone who's drawing dead. In reality, the gutshot draws will likely call, but at least you will have given them the worst odds possible.

I hope your losing streak turns around, but you might want to step back a bit and reassess to make sure you are still playing your A game. You threw away EV in this hand. Not raising the turn is very, very bad.

Willluck

03-09-2005, 02:33 AM

Yeah I know this, I guess I was just relentlessly trying to defend my line, but I still didn't want a pair of of Ts, 9s, or Js to fold.

chesspain

03-09-2005, 02:34 AM

sweetjazz

03-09-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is something that so many people misunderstand. Just because they are "right" to call doesn't mean you shouldn't raise it and force them to call. Sure they may be getting just enough odds, but if you only call they are getting much better (2x better) odds. You are basically making a side bet with them on the turn that you will win. And since you are clearly the favorite you should raise it up and actually INVITE the gutshots to call you at this higher price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Put another way, if the pot is big enough so that they are getting odds to call even if you do bet/raise, then while you would prefer them to fold above all else, you would much rather that they pay an extra bet than get to draw for a cheaper price. This is a crucial concept to understand.

MisterKing

03-09-2005, 02:36 AM

I'm totally unoriginal, but thought I'd add to the chorus of people wanting to smack you for not raising the turn. Shame!

chesspain

03-09-2005, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I know this, I guess I was just relentlessly trying to defend my line, but I still didn't want a pair of of Ts, 9s, or Js to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you continue to play in the future the way you played in this hand your win rate will continue to move further and further away from the 4BB/100 about which you previously crowed.

sweetjazz

03-09-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I know this, I guess I was just relentlessly trying to defend my line, but I still didn't want a pair of of Ts, 9s, or Js to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you were feeling generous and didn't want them to pay 2 bets either? We all know Party players fold a pair on the turn to two bets all the time. The opposition is so bad that you might get an open-ended straight draw to fold and have a jack call you when you raise. Granted, the straight draws likely coming all. But so is a jack. And probably a ten.

We all make mistakes and find rationales for our bad decisions. I sure do. Just focus on learning why raising the turn is soooooooo verrrryyyy goooooooddd here and smack your opposition around the next time a hand like this comes up. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

sthief09

03-09-2005, 02:44 AM

fold? raise the turn

sthief09

03-09-2005, 02:45 AM

jason_t

03-09-2005, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]

If you continue to play in the future the way you played in this hand your win rate will continue to move further and further away from the 4BB/100 about which you previously crowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also explains why Hero is on a 75 BB downswing.