Bubble pickle

[Scuba Chuck]

How do you play this?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2730)
Button (t30)
SB (t4095)
Hero (t1145)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t400) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero ...

[SuitedSixes]

... bets 200.

[TheUsher]

I'd check it down hoping for the free showdown. If he even sneezes at the pot I'd fold in a second. With button at 30 chips it's just not worth it right? Or maybe you could minimum bet it but I really hate minimum bets with 2 streets to go and a stack of 6xBB against the chip leader.

Imagine if you were in his shoes, would you check/raise to 1200 with any two knowing that you'd be VERY hard pressed to call knowing that the button will blind out soon.

Edit: Now that I think about it, you're lucky that the big stack didn't put you in in the first place which allowed you to see the flop. No way I would have completed this SB as I would have pushed any two in this situation.

[ilya]

If you bet any amount other than all-in you're basically begging the SB to take the pot away from you. Your only viable options IMO are check and all-in. If the blinds are gonna be at 300 when the BB hits you again (provided button survives), I think I push. If the blinds will still be at 200, I think I check.

[Apathy]

This is read dependant:

If the SB is a competent player that understands bubble situations, even a little bit, then do not put any more chips into the pot unless you can beat AA.

Otherwise if my opponent sucked and was not aggresive or tricky I would bet around 300 and fold to a c-raise or a call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
.. bets 200.


[/ QUOTE ]

I only think this line works because Big stack does not understand Big stack play (unless he's slow playing a monster - then he's a genius). We all know big stack should have pushed ANY TWO cards on this hand preflop. But he didn't. This scared the crap out of me. Big stack had been playing pretty weak over the previous few hands. I did think that if I pushed here, I'd take it down, but damn, hanger onner guy only gots 30 chips.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
.. bets 200.


[/ QUOTE ]

I only think this line works because Big stack does not understand Big stack play (unless he's slow playing a monster - then he's a genius). We all know big stack should have pushed ANY TWO cards on this hand preflop. But he didn't. This scared the crap out of me. Big stack had been playing pretty weak over the previous few hands. I did think that if I pushed here, I'd take it down, but damn, hanger onner guy only gots 30 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not putting in another chip, but I would like to pick it up on the flop.

[AnyTwoCanLose]

If you are playing an opponent that is likely to fold to a bet... isn't betting a very viable option?

Not because you hand has any value whatsoever... but because you have folding equity due to the fact that you could have anything... and the SB knows it.

The button's almost gone. As long as you don't go all in in the near future you should be okay. I'd be more concerned about moving into 2nd than knocking out the button... until the button makes a comeback.

Short-handed you need to get more aggressive. If you've been relatively tight up until now, this looks like an opportunity to snatch a small pot.

Going all-in seems to be incredibly obviously foolish to me. You can't worry about your opponent going all in. If he does, just fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise if my opponent sucked and was not aggresive or tricky I would bet around 300 and fold to a c-raise or a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had thought about this line as well. What I didn't like is that if I was check raised, that would require me to win 2 showdowns when ITM if I had any reasonable chance at assaulting first. I felt that I could still play strong ITM if I won just one showdown. I would then have the right amount of FE to take down blinds.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I did think that if I pushed here, I'd take it down, but damn, hanger onner guy only gots 30 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, that's the trouble... if I pushed and lost (regardless of how), I'd want to smack myself silly. With 30 chips for the button, I feel like you have to check.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
.. bets 200.



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I only think this line works because Big stack does not understand Big stack play (unless he's slow playing a monster - then he's a genius). We all know big stack should have pushed ANY TWO cards on this hand preflop. But he didn't. This scared the crap out of me. Big stack had been playing pretty weak over the previous few hands. I did think that if I pushed here, I'd take it down, but damn, hanger onner guy only gots 30 chips.


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I'm not putting in another chip, but I would like to pick it up on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

So how do you do that without putting in another chip?

[ilya]

You're right. It is opponent-dependant. But if the SB has any sense he'll put you all-in when you make a weak bet. Or, almost as bad, he'll call you with a flush draw and overcards or some combination of those. When the turn brings an overcard or a third diamond, what do you do? If he bets, you gotta fold, and you're down to something like 600 chips. If he checks, do you put the rest of your chips in with a marginal hand when the button has 30 left, or check behind and let the SB take the pot away from you on the river?
If you get called, end up folding, and have ~600 left, you'll be in a very dangerous situation. You will most likely fold in the SB next hand and have 500 left. You'll have put yourself in a situation where you a, have no folding equity and b, have to play for third.
Pushing seems reckless, sure, and checking may be preferable, but betting small is surely not the way to go.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise if my opponent sucked and was not aggresive or tricky I would bet around 300 and fold to a c-raise or a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had thought about this line as well. What I didn't like is that if I was check raised, that would require me to win 2 showdowns when ITM if I had any reasonable chance at assaulting first. I felt that I could still play strong ITM if I won just one showdown. I would then have the right amount of FE to take down blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fuzzy logic... If you believe it is quite +ev to bet in this spot then you should do it, you'll have even more chips for ITM and even more folding equity and a better chance for first. If you read your opponent as a weak idiot who doesnt understand bubble play then you have no reason not to bet, you'll still get third if he doesn't fold and since you already decided that it is likely your opponent will fold, then it makes sense to bet.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise if my opponent sucked and was not aggresive or tricky I would bet around 300 and fold to a c-raise or a call.


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I had thought about this line as well. What I didn't like is that if I was check raised, that would require me to win 2 showdowns when ITM if I had any reasonable chance at assaulting first. I felt that I could still play strong ITM if I won just one showdown. I would then have the right amount of FE to take down blinds.


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This is fuzzy logic... If you believe it is quite +ev to bet in this spot then you should do it, you'll have even more chips for ITM and even more folding equity and a better chance for first. If you read your opponent as a weak idiot who doesnt understand bubble play then you have no reason not to bet, you'll still get third if he doesn't fold and since you already decided that it is likely your opponent will fold, then it makes sense to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. This is one of those instances where you should "act on what you think your opponents will do, not what they should do."

My instincts told me he'd fold to an allin. But I wasn't positive he'd fold to a 200 chip bet. Thus my reason/logic for checking.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise if my opponent sucked and was not aggresive or tricky I would bet around 300 and fold to a c-raise or a call.


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I had thought about this line as well. What I didn't like is that if I was check raised, that would require me to win 2 showdowns when ITM if I had any reasonable chance at assaulting first. I felt that I could still play strong ITM if I won just one showdown. I would then have the right amount of FE to take down blinds.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



This is fuzzy logic... If you believe it is quite +ev to bet in this spot then you should do it, you'll have even more chips for ITM and even more folding equity and a better chance for first. If you read your opponent as a weak idiot who doesnt understand bubble play then you have no reason not to bet, you'll still get third if he doesn't fold and since you already decided that it is likely your opponent will fold, then it makes sense to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. This is one of those instances where you should "act on what you think your opponents will do, not what they should do."

My instincts told me he'd fold to an allin. But I wasn't positive he'd fold to a 200 chip bet. Thus my reason/logic for checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Instincts are one thing but wouldn't the math be on your side if you just checked this whenever it occurred now and in the future? Button would have to double up twice to even have any chips and even then mathematically you'd still probably win $EV wise by just folding ITM.

This might be the hand that decides between say 2nd and 3rd (or even 1st) for you, but I'd much rather have that option than going out 4th and pretty much knowing that I just gave the 30 chip guy a $100 bill if this was a 50.

[The Yugoslavian]

The problem here is that monkeys like to call allin when they have chips and push allin whenever there is a weak bet to them. Either of these scenarios is disasterous for you (well, one is...the other just sucks hardcore).

I think you have to play this one tighter than Alcatraz when housing SkipperBob.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I think it's correct to bet something here. The SB is obviously an idiot for not raising to begin with, so to think that he'd understand that he can probably take the pot away from you, is giving him too much credit. A good portion of the time he will have nothing and fold.

[AtticusFinch]

Push preflop. A guy who completes here has a marginal hand at best and wants a cheap look at the flop. I'd push almost any two here. Out of the many times I've done this (approximately 30), I've only ever been called once.

[curtains]

I understand that they often don't call Atticus, but there is a guy with 30 chips left, and the SB has 4000! I think allin here is a bit too brave for my tastes, especially since if I limp here as the SB, I will nearly 100% of the time have AA or KK.

Probably he doesn't have such a hand, but I'm not about to risk all my chips to find out when someone is sitting there with 30 chips.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

I understand that they often don't call Atticus, but there is a guy with 30 chips left, and the SB has 4000! I think allin here is a bit too brave for my tastes, especially since if I limp here as the SB, I will nearly 100% of the time have AA or KK.

Probably he doesn't have such a hand, but I'm not about to risk all my chips to find out when someone is sitting there with 30 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the sentiment, and this is a classic debate that has been rehashed a hundred times. I used to share your opinion, until I started trying this move. I can tell you from personal experience that the limper doesn't just fold "a lot." They fold the VAST majority of the time. Way more than a blind steal. Once out of 100 times he'll call and turn over AA-QQ, but the rest of the time he'll just fold. Furthermore, you'll sometimes win even if called. I'm convinced this is a winning play, yes, even with the button at 30 chips. Because you know he has only 30, and the limper knows that you know it, etc. In fact, this is the absolute best time to do it if you have the limper covered (which I know doesn't apply here.).

[curtains]

The problem is that if the limper is a decent player, they have to have a huge hand to have not raised from the SB, because they know you will fold almost any 2. This is a special case, and I just dont see the need to move allin.

[spentrent]

Bet what you would normally bet if you thought you had the best hand, 200 to 300.

You only fear a pocket overpair here. You have to be sure as sheeit that SB has a pocket overpair before you wuss out here. The limp might make you shudder a bit, but the big stack is gonna limp with a much bigger range than a 8-15BB stack.

If he raises you, kindly step out of the way. Yeah, you probably got pushed off of the best flop hand, but you should still bet because:

1) Button's gonna bubble out anyway; maybe you have to lay down a winner but you're still ITM.

2) Villain might fold to your bet, since he knows you know he has bully rights, and, knowing that, you STILL bet.

3) You're a dog to win the tourney anyway at this point, whether you have 900 chips or 6-700.

Essentially, betting and winning this pot makes you less of a dog, while betting and losing this pot changes nothing.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

The problem is that if the limper is a decent player, they have to have a huge hand to have not raised from the SB, because they know you will fold almost any 2. This is a special case, and I just dont see the need to move allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's always room for a read, but as I said, the VAST majority of the time a complete is just a crappy, speculative hand like 89s or something that the limper just couldn't quite let go, but will fold to a push without hesitation. I jump for joy whenever I see a complete here, because it's just free chips for me.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
.. bets 200.



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I only think this line works because Big stack does not understand Big stack play (unless he's slow playing a monster - then he's a genius). We all know big stack should have pushed ANY TWO cards on this hand preflop. But he didn't. This scared the crap out of me. Big stack had been playing pretty weak over the previous few hands. I did think that if I pushed here, I'd take it down, but damn, hanger onner guy only gots 30 chips.


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I'm not putting in another chip, but I would like to pick it up on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

So how do you do that without putting in another chip?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not putting another chip in after the 200 bet I lead with on the flop. If I get called, I'm in check/fold mode. If I get raised, I'm out. Do you honestly feel that every limper has a monster?

[AnyTwoCanLose]

Do you guys really think that a 400 bet is inviting an ALLin? If I was the BB, I'd be nervous about being trapped.

Towards the end, its been my experience that players get really tricky... too tricky. I worry more about small bets than big ones.

Big ones always smell of a steal to me (especially at the end).

Is this not what you have encountered?

[curtains]

The SB is already a bad player for failing to raise preflop (unless they have a big hand here).

I think betting the flop is obvious, as the SB has already shown a lack of understanding the basic principles of the sit and go endgame.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you guys really think that a 400 bet is inviting an ALLin? If I was the BB, I'd be nervous about being trapped.


[/ QUOTE ]

Monkeys with half the chips in play aren't nervous about *anything* except not getting their chips into the middle.

[ QUOTE ]

Towards the end, its been my experience that players get really tricky... too tricky. I worry more about small bets than big ones.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess....it's so contextual and dependent on the player...you can't play too scared at the end b/c there are so few players the chances he actually has the hand you fear is very slim.

[ QUOTE ]

Big ones always smell of a steal to me (especially at the end).

Is this not what you have encountered?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah...I generally agree with this sorta. Fast and hard rules don't always work though. The other problem is that big bets mean showdown...so unless you know you'll have a big edge, you can call or come over the top and it still isn't really all that great for you.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I think betting the flop is obvious, as the SB has already shown a lack of understanding the basic principles of the sit and go endgame.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make me feel much better about betting this flop. Although, the more I think about it, the more I think that perhaps you can win it right there enough of the time to make it worth the 200 chip bet.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I believe the SB will fold to a 200-300 chip bet over 40-50% of the time.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think betting the flop is obvious, as the SB has already shown a lack of understanding the basic principles of the sit and go endgame.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make me feel much better about betting this flop. Although, the more I think about it, the more I think that perhaps you can win it right there enough of the time to make it worth the 200 chip bet.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

A normal flop lead in this case will result in

1) The pre-hand status quo (Hero likely to finish third)

OR

2) Hero has a big enough stack to have a shot at finishing first

[Irieguy]

SuitedSixes is right.

Curtains explains why nicely.

Yugo, apparently, doesn't know that Alcatraz didn't have a drunk tank... so skipperbob was never in any danger of ending up at there.

Irieguy

[Shanemex]

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop. A guy who completes here has a marginal hand at best and wants a cheap look at the flop. I'd push almost any two here. Out of the many times I've done this (approximately 30), I've only ever been called once.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been toying with this play today and I just had a terrible, but funny, result. There were five players left and I had about 1500 and the SB had almost 2000. The blinds were 100/200 and when he limped I pushed with T9s. He called quicker than lighning with 98s and the flop was 78J and I was out. So take caution with this play at the $30 level (and below).

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
I had about 1500 and the SB had almost 2000. The blinds were 100/200 and when he limped I pushed with T9s. He called quicker than lighning with 98s and the flop was 78J and I was out.

[/ QUOTE ]
By my calculations, you should have a straight off the flop, and he would be drawing to a runner-runner boat or quads.

[Shanemex]

My mistake. The board was actually 7TJ.

[Lefthander]

Wouldn't that give you a straight? Or did you reverse the hands?

edit: you fixed that before I even posted. Sorry.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I believe the SB will fold to a 200-300 chip bet over 40-50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, after some deliberation....I'm sold, where do I sign-up for this bet and a shot at 1st place??

Yugoslav

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]

I've been toying with this play today and I just had a terrible, but funny, result.

[/ QUOTE ]

Similar thing happened to me yesterday. I'm chip leader in BB w/ K8s, SB limps (blinds 200/400) I push and he calls immediately w/ KK. However, I should have been a little leery, in lieu of the fact I was pushing my chips around like crazy and could almost feel this setup coming.

[skipperbob]

That's right; I wasn't....But people who were countfeiting 20's on their Canon 6000 were /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[two_dogs]

Following SuitedSixes line of betting 200 and putting no more in you are taking a shot at increasing your pot equity from 25% to 27% with almost no increase to coming in fourth. What more could you ask for?

[KenProspero]

Scuba

1. If you check, you're obviously folding to any bet. So after the hand you most likely end up with 945 chips, with a slim possibility of 1345 (Having established that SB doesn't know what he's doing, he might let you check it down -- we can always hope).

2. If you bet 200 or 400, you have a somewhat better chance of getting the fold, bringing you to 1345, but you're down to 745 or 545. respectively.

At 945, you can probably survive the blinds three times (and it's possible that Button may win a couple of hands), at 745 and 545, you'll blind out sooner if Button gets lucky.

Ultimately, at 945 chips, doubling up doesn't put you into second, while at 1345, you catch second place once.

Not enough information to determine when blinds go up, and how this effects things. However, given that we think SB may fold, I don't think the difference between 745 and 945 materially affects your chances at getting third, and the while I think the difference between 945 and 1345 does materially increase your chances at second. With both 745 and 945 you have to double up twice to get back into things.

Overall, play the player, if you really think there's a fair to good chance that SB will fold to a mini-bet it's probably worth a shot. I wouldn't go any further than 200, and honestly, I'd lose any lingering respect I had for SB if he didn't slam the pot when I tried this foolishness.

[Allinlife]

I really don't see how going allin here ins't the optimal strategy. If you make a smallish bet, the chip leader will call you down here with overcards, gutshot straight, straight draw and all other sorts of crap. pot is nearly 40% of your stack and you are holding very venuerable hand on a board where any card will pretty much make it hard to play turn, and if you check turn behind, chip leader will more than often bluff at it with any 2 cards given the fact that button has 30 chips left and you show weakness with turn check.

Even vs slowplayed overpair, you have 20% equity to hit your 5 out on turn/river. I just hate seeing any turn card with this hand.

I think you should either check-fold or allin.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should either check-fold or allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that this line of thinking might be a leak in your game?

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
If you make a smallish bet, the chip leader will call you down here with overcards, gutshot straight, straight draw and all other sorts of crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have any respect for chip leader, then check/fold is a no brainer. However, since I don't understand why chip leader merely called, instead of going all-in, I'm thinking maybe I can steal the pot on the cheap. If he now does the right thing and raise, I'm not giving a lot of thought to what he has, I'm folding as fast as I can get the mouse over to the fold button.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I've been toying with this play today and I just had a terrible, but funny, result.

[/ QUOTE ]

Similar thing happened to me yesterday. I'm chip leader in BB w/ K8s, SB limps (blinds 200/400) I push and he calls immediately w/ KK. However, I should have been a little leery, in lieu of the fact I was pushing my chips around like crazy and could almost feel this setup coming.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I should have added the caveat that this is not something to do every single time. Doing it more than once or twice in one SNG vs the same person is dangerous, and doing it when you've been pushing like mad is asking for trouble. Either of these conditions makes it much more likely that your opponent is trapping.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
when he limped I pushed with T9s. He called quicker than lighning with 98s

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunate result, especially since you had him dominated, but consider that it only reinforces my estimation of the type of hand he has. If you're in a wild game you might tighten up your requirements somewhat, to make it more likely you're ahead when called, but I'd still push with anything resembling a hand. T9s certainly qualifies.

As a side note, consider that t9s is one of the best hands to make this move with, as if it turns out your opp is trapping, you'll have the best odds vs AA/KK.

[Scuba Chuck]

Atticus, I don't know how to do the math on this, but I truly believe that putting all your chips in the middle on this hand is -$EV.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should either check-fold or allin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that this line of thinking might be a leak in your game?

[/ QUOTE ]
of course. but I thought I made my points clear about the wide range of chip leader calling you here and how nearly all cards could be bad for you on the turn. I would appreciated if you can tell me what's wrong with my line of thinking. thanks

p.s I really gotta read my post before I press the submit button lol

[curtains]

I'm not sure that it's really -EV, but I just wouldn't do it. It might also be +ev to just check preflop and bet if they check.

This way you gain more information and you can win the pot with a cheaper bet. If you raise preflop you must move allin. There is no way to make the opponent fold preflop without risking all of your chips. This is not the case on the flop however.

[sofere]

How would you play this as the big stack assuming you completed with a hand like Q9 or any two for that matter. (I realize that you would never complete, but just for argument's sake).

BB checked. Flop comes 3 8 4, you check...BB bets 200. I think if you push here BB folds 90% of the time.

If this situation came up I would push every time. Back to the OP, I feel that betting 200 is just bleeding chips. Pushing doesn't look good either as BB may very well be trapping. I may be weak-tight but I check fold here without any strong reads.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should either check-fold or allin.


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Do you think that this line of thinking might be a leak in your game?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would appreciated if you can tell me what's wrong with my line of thinking. thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Just requires some math and some assumptions:

Check Fold Assumptions
Let's assume that there's a 50% chance that I will see a showdown by just checking (which btw, is what happened). And on this showdown, I have a 50% chance of winning.

Let's assume 50% of the time, villain will raise, and I will fold.

Check EV = (.50)(.2497)+(.25)(.2497 + (.25)(.2717)
Check EV = .2552

Push Assumptions
Let's assume that our villain is a poor player, and doesn't understand SNG end game strategy. I think it's fair to assume that 70% of the time that I push with this hand in this scenario, I will win the pot outright. And 30% of the time I am called. Of that 30% of the time I am called, let's assume I win 60% of the time.

Push EV = (.70)(.2717)+(.18)(.3158) + (.12)(ZERO)
Push EV = .2470

Conclusion
Check EV = 25.52%
Push EV = 24.70%

I would be interested in any thoughts on the probabilities I used, but I think that for the push probabilities, I was pretty favorable towards winning. If I am right here, that would reduce your Push EV numbers.

This analysis assumes that push or fold are your only decision (I am not trying to justify check-fold over mini-raise).

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
How would you play this as the big stack assuming you completed with a hand like Q9 or any two for that matter. (I realize that you would never complete, but just for argument's sake).


[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, playing as the big stack completely changes the landscape. And I disagree that betting is just bleeding chips. Put yourself in villain's (who I assume is Stack #2 in this case) shoes. He has no interest in going out in this hand with Mr HangerOnner guy with 30 chips, sitting in 4th place. In fact, his position/thoughts, are exactly what this thread is talking about.

[EarlCat]

SB has enough chips to call your all-in (or put you all-in) with ANYTHING and still make the money. He should already be in post-bubble attack mode. You, however, could get drawn out on and forfeit your entry fee, and for what? 1 freakin BB. There's no way in blackest hell I'm gonna risk not making the money to net 1 BB when the short stack would have to double up 4 times just to survive the next couple rounds.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
Atticus, I don't know how to do the math on this, but I truly believe that putting all your chips in the middle on this hand is -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math all depends on how often they'll call, so it's pretty much impossible to calculate accurately. I only have my personal experience to go in, which is that they almost never call. Since I've started trying this move out, they have folded over 98% of the time.