I steal, I hit the flop - kinda - now WHAT?

[McMelchior]

PStars 7:45 PM $10 buy-in, one of the last hands before the second break, average stack is around t9,100.

I have played solid poker and only showed down strong hands - say for one open-raise from LP that I folded to BB's (not the same player as now) all-in offering me 2:1 pot odds. I had 74 and saw the fold less damaging to my table image than exposing that!

But now to the current hand:
The BB has been at the table for a little more than an orbit and hasn't done anything insane, which in this tournament pretty much is the mark of a pro.

With blinds of t200/t400 and t25 ante there's t800 in the pot when the action reaches me, and I decide to take a shot at it. The tendency at the table has been that SB and BB calls 2-3 x BB raises from LP, so I decide to raise 3.5 x BB to see if that should make a difference.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG (t12917)
UTG+1 (t15265)
MP1 (t15300)
Hero (t8754)
CO (t5795)
Button (t2650)
SB (t13835)
BB (t11556)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1400</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t1000.

Flop: (t3200) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1200</font>,

So ... I have TPWK, and he's betting t1,200 into the t3,200 pot. I pretty much put him on an attempt to take it down by betting, but there is a possible str8 draw out there, and the flop could have hit him right between the eyes.

I consider raising to define the hand, but I don't believe less than 1/2 pot raise - to t4,000 - is going to make him go away, and that would mean committing more than half of my remaining stack. If I'm committing more than half of my stack on a raise, then I'm probably better off pushing ... but I just don't love my 8 kicker that much!

Eh ... and on the other hand, I'm just not folding Top Pair when the pot is offering me 4:1 ... so:

Hero calls t1200.

Turn: (t5600) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

That was one of the cards I'm less happy to see. Basically I'd prefer to see a turn of Q or 8 or anything lower. 9, T, J, K and Ace all sucks. Well, the BB makes it easy for me:

<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t8931 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

I don't think there's anyway I could call that all-in - right? Maybe I'm paranoid, but to me it looked like a KT trying to make me call off all of my chips with 'reverse psychology'... but I guess JT for an overly aggressively played openended str8 draw just could be imagined. The latter being the only likely hand I can think of I can beat at that point.

So my real concern is not really the fold I made on the turn, but the call on the flop. Does anybody fold on the flop, does anybody move in?

All comments are appreciated - thank you.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[NumbersGame]

If you say that you had playing solid poker up that point your call was very good. Considering that you should be able to rebound from that and start collecting chips again.

[housenuts]

could a min-raise on the flop maybe slow him down and at least get you a cheap showdown? that's probably investing too much of your stack for something that isn't even guaranteed to work. i like your play.

i probably would have pushed on the flop, but that's just what i do.

[McMelchior]

Thank you to both posters for the opinions.

I did comeback nicely, made the money and immediately had my pocket KK sucked out by a happy-go-lucky player who put in a solid preflop raise from EP with AQ, called my re-raise, committed all of his chips on a Q hi flop and hit trips on the river. But that's a different story, and a win is a win, even when you net $1.87 /images/graemlins/cool.gif

In retrospect I'd probably have preferred to follow housenuts strategy and pushed on the flop; the number of times where I get called and either find myself drawings (more or less) dead or get sucked out should be generously compensated by my increased chip count and future leverage the (probably majority) number of times when my opponent folds.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[Roman]

no way I flat call this flop, too many ugly turn cards. I usually am willing to commit my whole stack here, and I would raise to like 3600 and call a push.

[ansky451]

id push the flop and probably lose to a better hand /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[suited_ace]

I don't like the flop call at all. His bet is weak, but you only calling shows even more weakness. My guess is that the best hand he can have right now is a pair of jacks, but after your flop call is just too easy to take the pot away.

If you were holding AQ in this same situation, would you have called the 1200 also?

[Jdanz]

i think this is a pretty easy push. You raised pre-flop, if he wanted a big pot he'd check-raise as you're almost certainly going to try to pick up the pot, this looks like a jack or a 9 that feels they have too much to check fold, but not enough to call a raise.

-JDanz

[AtticusFinch]

I don't like flat-calling with that board. With a lower straight draw, I might think about it, but with a broadway 2-straight, warning bells are going off in my head.

I think you're in a push-or-fold situation, and which you pick is mostly read-dependent. If he's capable of smooth-calling with something like AK and taking a shot with overs and a gutshot, then you might push.

An underbet could mean weakness, or it could mean a huge hand that doesn't want to give a free card because of the same broadway straight draw you're concerned about, but wants to keep you in the pot. If you were playing against me, the latter would be much more likely. Against this guy, I have no idea.

I'd be inclined to fold by default, but if I play it, I'm pushing the flop for sure.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd be inclined to fold by default, but if I play it, I'm pushing the flop for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I grinned as I wrote this, thinking about my earlier post where I called an all-in with a similar hand. Still, an open push looks weaker to me than a low bet here, especially from a big stack. Perhaps I'm projecting my own personality on my opponents. It wouldn't be the first time.

[curtains]

I don't think this is a good time to steal preflop. I do steal often, but I think you are just being overly ambitious here, with the two giant stacks in the big blind. I believe that it's -EV to steal here, especially to make it 3.5x the BB.

On the flop I would move allin. The pot has more than half of what I have in my stack, and my opponent has made a weak bet. I'm going to take my chances here and put him to the test.

[McMelchior]

I find you point of view somewhat surprising, Curtains.

You actually think it’s –EV to steal from bigger stacks? I wonder if you misread my post?

I said the average stack is around t9k, and SB and BB is sitting on t14k and t11.5k respectively – not exactly “giant stacks” in my opinion: BB (who’s the one that actually calls) would find himself crippled at less than 8BBs if he loses an all-in to me, and even the SB would risk being reduced to around half the average stack if I have what I represent and it holds up.

Maybe it’s a matter of style, but if I (being a somewhat conservative player) abstained from stealing blinds from players just because their stacks were 30% - 60% bigger than mine I’d find myself blinded out of 90% of the tournaments I enter.

I can see the merit of your view if one of the blinds is a real giant – in the order of magnitude being able to double me up and still retain twice the average stack or more – and has shown a willingness to gamble with marginal holdings. In the described situation I’m looking at players who have not made one single move for more than one orbit (and we’re talking about a WILD $10 buy-in).

Regarding the flop call (which was my reason for posting in the first place) as stated above I agree with the posters (and that's basically all of you, thank you) that advocades pushing – I can’t afford to give up what most of the time will be a decent edge; and offering the BB 5:1 pot odds on a draw to 22 possible scare-cards (for me) by flat calling was a clear mistake. Fold or push with a strong bias towards pushing.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)