Does anyone think my play is a leak here?

[Scuba Chuck]

***** Hand History for Game 1706947478 *****
100/200 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 10220902) - Tue Mar 08 21:33:03 EST 2005
Table Table 11182 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: xHesonTILTx (815)
Seat 3: hemp_cigar (1005)
Seat 4: Mindkrym28 (2305)
Seat 5: manish11 (625)
Seat 6: RockytopRon (910)
Seat 7: Scuba_Chuk (1155)
Seat 9: androofer (225)
Seat 10: chaos1971 (960)
Scuba_Chuk posts small blind (50)
androofer posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba_Chuk [ 5c, Ac ]
chaos1971 folds.
xHesonTILTx folds.
hemp_cigar folds.
Mindkrym28 calls (100)
manish11 folds.
RockytopRon folds.
Scuba_Chuk calls (50)
androofer checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, As, 4c ]
Scuba_Chuk checks.
androofer checks.
Mindkrym28 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 7c ]
Scuba_Chuk checks.
androofer checks.
Mindkrym28 bets (100)
Scuba_Chuk calls (100)
androofer calls (100)
** Dealing River ** : [ 9d ]
Scuba_Chuk checks.
androofer checks.
Mindkrym28 bets (100)
Scuba_Chuk folds.
androofer calls (25)
androofer is all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $650 with androofer
** Summary **
Main Pot: 650 | Side Pot 1: 75
Board: [ 7s As 4c 7c 9d ]
xHesonTILTx balance 815, didn't bet (folded)
hemp_cigar balance 1005, didn't bet (folded)
Mindkrym28 balance 2080, bet 300, collected 75, lost -225 [ Kc 2c ] [ a pair of sevens -- As,Kc,9d,7s,7c ]
manish11 balance 625, didn't bet (folded)
RockytopRon balance 910, didn't bet (folded)
Scuba_Chuk balance 955, lost 200 (folded)
androofer balance 650, bet 225, collected 650, net +425 [ 8d 4h ] [ two pairs, sevens and fours -- As,7s,7c,4h,4c ]
chaos1971 balance 960, didn't bet (folded)

[iMsoLucky0]

Ummm. Several things.

First: Fold preflop.

Second: Bet the flop.

Third: If you call the turn, what makes you scared on the river?

[TheUsher]

Since you're in the SB, would you check/raise the turn possibly all-in trying to pick up the pot with TPWK+flush draw? Would be a big overbet but it might seem like you're protecting against the double suited board. Or possibly would you check/raise the river all-in after check/calling the turn. This would work better at the higher buyins as they'd put you on the 7. These are some aggressive options though. Should call the minimum bet on the river though.

[Colombo]

Why should he fold preflop? Nobody has shown any strength, and he is in the SB, seems like a stupid fold to me.

I would bet the flop, and I would have called the river. Those bets aren't very strong.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Ummm. Several things.

First: Fold preflop.

Second: Bet the flop.

Third: If you call the turn, what makes you scared on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pre-flop play looks fine as far as completing. When the A was checked around you could assume it was good on the turn which could have made you more aggressive though by betting or check/raising. (maybe) No way I'm betting that flop though and then leaking chips there when he raises me if he had an A.

[Voltron87]

1. Use the hand converter.
2. Bet the flop.
3. Bet the turn.
4. Call the small river bet.

[RobGW]

There is $700 in the pot and its $100 to you essentially closing the betting. You only need to win 1 out of 8 times to make the call correct. Based on the betting I think you'll win far more often than that.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I like the call pre-flop. You are obviously concerned that the big stack is sandbagging. Maybe, maybe not. Calling 100 is no big deal for him, so he may have anything.

I would've bet 250 on the flop. Would he really have called preflop with AK-A7? I doubt it. He would have raised.

Anyway, you checked....and he checked behind. He has nothing.

On the turn you pick up the nut flush draw, and you check again? This hurt me.

The river. You need to call 100 ot win 700 with top pair and you fold? You had plenty of chips to call this. Do you really think you are beaten 85% of the time here?

[microbet]

Seems like androofer is real likely to raise preflop since he is almost all in and might want to limit his opposition. Given that, and the fact that A5s isn't very good, and the fact that there was only 1 caller so the nut flush doesn't look so great. I think maybe a fold preflop is better. But, you probably know better than I do.

Would you have folded to, say, a pot sized bet on the flop? Again androofer seems real likely to bet. Were you expecting him to bet and then call only if Mind folded?

I have no questions about the turn.

On the river, with androofer unable to raise, I don't see folding eventhough Mind's bet could very well indicate a good hand trying to extract a few chips from what he thinks are very bad hands. 7.25 to 1 seems like too much to pass up.

[Scuba Chuck]

Thanks for the short synopsis Yahtzee!

[ QUOTE ]
First: Fold preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're probably right.

[ QUOTE ]
Second: Bet the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I'm thinking I should have done. What size bet ru thinking?

[ QUOTE ]
Third: If you call the turn, what makes you scared on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Horrible, Horrible mistake by me. I failed to check the size of the stack of the caller behind me. I folded because I didn't intend to call a reraise, but obviously no reraise could come. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Out of curiousity, if the stack behind me was much larger, does that change your decision here?

[ilya]

I think betting the flop is bad; I like the check.
I think the check/calling on the turn is good.
Obviously you should call the river.

I think completing preflop is ok with your healthy stack but folding is definitely fine too.

[callmedonnie]

Calling or folding the flop is of little consequence in my opinion. I alternate depending on my mood. Because the big stack and small stack are in, I might fold. Small stacks tend to go all in, and I tend to not like calling with A5 at a nine handed game.

If I'm in, I bet the flop. I like to make a probe bet. The limits make probe bet expensive here, all the more reason to fold preflop. Sometimes checking is alright all the way through. I don't think this hand applies. If you play an ace and can't bet it when it flops, you're in some trouble in my opinion.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
I think betting the flop is bad; I like the check.
I think the check/calling on the turn is good.
Obviously you should call the river.

I think completing preflop is ok with your healthy stack but folding is definitely fine too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally someone said checking the flop was good. /images/graemlins/smile.gif If you bet and get called, what would you put your opponent on? Would you bet the turn again unimproved hoping to push out a weaker ace or the spade draw? That seems like way too much a risk with your weak TP. What would you do if you were raised on the flop or turn?

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
There is $700 in the pot and its $100 to you essentially closing the betting. You only need to win 1 out of 8 times to make the call correct. Based on the betting I think you'll win far more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. If there was only 1 round of betting, your point would be correct.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is $700 in the pot and its $100 to you essentially closing the betting. You only need to win 1 out of 8 times to make the call correct. Based on the betting I think you'll win far more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. If there was only 1 round of betting, your point would be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the short synopsis Yahtzee!

[/ QUOTE ]

Your welcome. /images/graemlins/grin.gif And it's Yahtzee0 /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiousity, if the stack behind me was much larger, does that change your decision here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would that change anything? The thing about the river is that it doesn't change anything about the hand. All it does is allow you to tie with an A8 or A6 (if it were out there, which it doesn't seem like it is). If the stack behind were going to raise, it really seems like he would have raised the turn. The river didn't change anything.



And as for all you people saying that the limp preflop is fine (or even good), I will revert to my old philosophy of saving every single chip possible until the blinds are worth stealing.

Remember, you don't have to play poker to win a SNG, you just have to play the SNG.

[AnyTwoCanLose]

With the potodds you would be getting... how can folding in the small blind possibly be correct?

I don't think the play was poor. Without seeing how the other players were playing, its hard to judge. Everyone's a genius when its someone else's hand and everyone's a genius when it works out.

Still... after weakness was shown on the flop... I can't imagine folding Aces on the river in this situation against any but the tightest opposition.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is $700 in the pot and its $100 to you essentially closing the betting. You only need to win 1 out of 8 times to make the call correct. Based on the betting I think you'll win far more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. If there was only 1 round of betting, your point would be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

He is not factoring in the chips it will cost him to call on further streets only to find out he has been out kickered.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is $700 in the pot and its $100 to you essentially closing the betting. You only need to win 1 out of 8 times to make the call correct. Based on the betting I think you'll win far more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. If there was only 1 round of betting, your point would be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

He is not factoring in the chips it will cost him to call on further streets only to find out he has been out kickered.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should re-read the posts, his comment was about the river play where you are being offered around 8 to 1 on a call that will end that hand.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is $700 in the pot and its $100 to you essentially closing the betting. You only need to win 1 out of 8 times to make the call correct. Based on the betting I think you'll win far more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. If there was only 1 round of betting, your point would be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

He is not factoring in the chips it will cost him to call on further streets only to find out he has been out kickered.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should re-read the posts, his comment was about the river play where you are being offered around 8 to 1 on a call that will end that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. I didn't read the whole thread carefully. I thought the argument was being made for completing the SB. Folding the river was bad.

[lorinda]

With the potodds you would be getting... how can folding in the small blind possibly be correct?

Other than this being a tourney not a ring game, the guy behind chomping at the bit to go all-in, the fact we only have one card, the fact there is a limper, the fact we have the worst position on the table, and the fact it will cost nearly 5% of our stack, I must admit to not being able to find a reason.

Lori

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

You are right. I didn't read the whole thread carefully. I thought the argument was being made for completing the SB. Folding the river was bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

His reasoning is still flawed b/c he's at the very least leaving out considerations about CEV vs. $EV of what he considers the 'correct' play.

Also, just b/c a play on the river is good does not mean play on all streets is good. And the overall play I'm sure is the OPers main concern.

Yugoslav

[lorinda]

I think your play seems weak-tight... which is much better than weak-loose

and in fact is better than anything you can chuck at me in level four.

Weak Tight is a compliment, although people who drift through here think it is an insult.

Lori

Edit: Where didya go?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Other than this being a tourney not a ring game, the guy behind chomping at the bit to go all-in, the fact we only have one card, the fact there is a limper, the fact we have the worst position on the table, and the fact it will cost nearly 5% of our stack, I must admit to not being able to find a reason.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, I knew someone was going to wield that against me. Thanks for the medicine.

The reason I folded the river was to try to minimize the damage into making this an overall bad play. Losing 150 chips vs. 250 chips. I felt that I would have a better handle on "stack management" at 950 instead of 850. The results are what made me think that I have a bigger leak.

[lorinda]

The results are what made me think that I have a bigger leak.

The leak appears to be "forward planning" rather than any severe misunderstanding at any point.

Lori

[TheUsher]

Perhaps the argument for folding pre-flop could be better argued if everyone mentioned what they were looking for when they complete? Are you trying to play for TPWK, a flush draw, 2 pair, trips 5's, openended+over, or get lucky and hit a wheel or something?

For me it's mostly a low board flush draw or 2 pair since both those hands I could play very aggressively.

[lorinda]

For me it's a low board flush draw or 2 pair since both those hands I could play very aggressively.

For me, if I'm playing for that flop, I want enough chips to be able to check/raise someone out of the pot, which I dont believe I really have here.

Lori

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
For me it's a low board flush draw or 2 pair since both those hands I could play very aggressively.

For me, if I'm playing for that flop, I want enough chips to be able to check/raise someone out of the pot, which I dont believe I really have here.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I think I mentioned earlier that I'd call this pre-flop but in the heat of the moment I'd most likely fold this with the stack size as it is. With the added danger of the BB pushing his remaining chips that would make the call pretty horrible on my part if that happened.

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
With the potodds you would be getting... how can folding in the small blind possibly be correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to handle this myself, but it seems Lorinda did a pretty good job of it.

I will conclude my comments on my thread with this (and I'm really not trying to come across like an ass here):

If you really believe your statement here, you may want to read more posts before you start posting analysis yourself.

[curtains]

I hate folding the river. I would bet out on the flop, however checking isn't terrible. I would definitely bet out on the turn.

I'm scared to check call the turn, because what do you do if you do catch the guy bluffing, but he fires another bullet on the river (as you obviously dont plan to call a huge bet with A5 here on the river)? Suddenly you've just played yourself out of the pot.

[AnyTwoCanLose]

I accept that there might be good arguements for folding preflop... even though I think many of you are trying so hard to be clever that you are missing the obvious.

BUT... how can there be any doubt that you need to call the river. The play in the hand is inviting someone to try and steal.

How can you not be getting good enough odds on your call? The importance of making the right call on the river has to be at least ten times as important as preflop play in this hand.

Preflop might have been a leak... but river looks like a fountain.

[curtains]

I don't like to fold preflop.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I accept that there might be good arguements for folding preflop... even though I think many of you are trying so hard to be clever that you are missing the obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding preflop here has *nothing* to do with being clever.

It has much more to do with the information present in the situation.

FWIW (which prolly isn't much) - I fold pre-flop here. I feel good about it to.

Folding is sublime....

Yugoslav

[SuitedSixes]

... Scuba completed with A-Crap Suited because he was hoping to hit a home run when he made the nut flush. When the Ace came on the flop he talked himself into staying in for just one more card, 'cause he could make two pair and still hit a homerun. When the turn gave him a four flush he just knew he was going to hit a homerun on the river because . . . well, this is Party Poker. When the river didn't bring him a flush he folded because that's what he was looking for all along.

And that is why we don't complete with Ace-Crap Suited. Unless you are a post-flop God like curtains, ChrisV, et al.

[curtains]

Wow suddenly I'm a postflop god? I think I'm generally stronger preflop than postflop.

[SuitedSixes]

Can we just compromise and call you an all-around stud?

[curtains]

No...I'm not so great postflop really.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

And that is why we don't complete with Ace-Crap Suited. Unless you are a post-flop God like curtains, ChrisV, et al.

[/ QUOTE ]

And your $EV edge over the field is relatively tiny and to a very large part attained due to the aforementioned post-flop skills.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

No...I'm not so great postflop really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you should immediately stop playing many (all) of the buyins you currently do.

Otherwise, you are quite to very good postflop. You're just going to have to deal with this....or lose all of your money....

Yugoslav

[BigHobo]

Wow, we've got a wide range of comments. Good post, Chuck. I might as well chip in to confuse things even more.

Pre-Flop: I can go either way on this. Folding is ok, but I would probably complete. However, if you are going to complete you need to be prepared to take some risks post-flop.

Flop: UTG there is no way I put a dime into this pot with such a weak kicker. First thing I want to find out is if anyone else has an Ace. A check is almost a no-lose situation. If one of the other two players makes a decent bet I assume they have an Ace (with larger kicker) and I get out, having only lost the 50 complete. All checks is a good indication that nobody else has an Ace. Either way, I've got some good information without risking any more chips.

Turn: Based on the checks I assume that nobody else has an Ace and that I have the best hand. Being first to act is a huge advantage here, in that i) I can take a stab at the pot before anyone else and ii) a bet on the turn has some credibility since the other players have to consider the possibility that I was going for a check-raise on the flop. IMO a pot-size bet on the turn wins it for me right there.

River: Must call. I can't see any reason to fold to such a weak bet at that juncture.

[Irieguy]

Interesting replies. Here are my comments:

1. Folding preflop isn't anywhere near as good as the sublime folders think, and isn't anywhere near as bad as the actionmonkeys think. It totally depends on your post flop skills, but even if you suck post flop, this hand is easy to play. I'd call preflop.

2. Folding the river is so unmistakably horrible that I can't believe a bigger deal wasn't made of it. It's awful, and the fact that it's even possible means that the post-flop portion of your game is hugely negative EV. So, Scuba, if you are winning, it's because you push and fold well.

3. Lorinda diagnosed Scuba's thinking error the best.

4. "Folding is sublime" by Yugo is quote of the day.

5. Phil V.S. was made ill by the turn check, and the fact that it made him ill made me ill. This isn't limit holdem... betting into 2 players with TPWK/NFD is no way to play the turn with a short stack. What's funny is that the reason why checking is good is because it sets you up for a nice river value-call... oops.

The other reason why checking the turn is good is that you have a great chance to induce a bluff by the short stack. Then if mindy decides to smooth-call that bet you can put on a little post-flop clinic and show these clowns how to play A-xs after the flop. (In other words, androofer will bluff sometimes, mindy will fold a weak ace sometimes if you check-raise in that particular situation, neither will get away from a weaker flush draw, and you are usually ahead anyways.)

Irieguy

[ilya]

Generally correct but not as concise as my reply. B+. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Irieguy]

Sorry, Ilya, I missed your reply above.

You are right, yours is better. But I insulted Scuba, so mine is more fun.

Irieguy

[curtains]

I definitely don't think the turn check is horrible here. I would bet, but I don't have a major opinion about it, it's just what I'd do. I wouldn't really blame anyone who checks.

You just have a problem if the big stack decides to bet the turn, and then make a bigger bet on the river with no hand. This won't happen too often however.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, Ilya, I missed your reply above.

You are right, yours is better. But I insulted Scuba, so mine is more fun.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Yours IS more fun. I think the long, dark Boston winters are giving me SAD.
But come springtime I'll show you whose funny bone is bigger!!

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

I definitely don't think the turn check is horrible here. I would bet, but I don't have a major opinion about it, it's just what I'd do. I wouldn't really blame anyone who checks.

You just have a problem if the big stack decides to bet the turn, and then make a bigger bet on the river with no hand. This won't happen too often however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there are only couple of players at the $33 level capable of making such a play on purpose, and I think I know them all.

Plenty will make it by accident, but so rarely that it's hardly worth considering. The vast majority of low limit SNG players have virtually exposed their cards to you by the time they're making their river bet... I'm really not very worried about folding a winner on the river. That's why I was surprised to see Phil say he'd bet the turn... though it may just be because he doesn't play the $33's.

Irieguy

[RobGW]

I was only talking about the river. If you have something to say about the other streets then go ahead. But wait, I know what you are going to say. Fold Pre flop. Thats all you ever say.

[SuitedSixes]

You are right, I was incorrectly referring to pre-flop. You are 100% correct on the river. And I don't always advocate folding pre-flop. Sometimes I advocate . . .











Push.
http://usera.imagecave.com/BSwing23/GIFTED.jpg

[curtains]

Maybe I like checking the turn now.

[RobGW]

I was talking to Yugo not you. Your alright with me. lol. Yugo, do you care to expand on your statement or are you just quoting something you dont understand?

[Mr_J]

I fold because shortstack will push back at me alot of the time here. Throw in an extra 175 preflop for a race or fold? Fold thanks. Bigstack will probally call him with the 2 facecards (no ace) I put him on, and hopefully take shortstack out so I don't have to worry about him behind me when I'm stealing.

Flopping a flush won't be worth much, although probally no worse than if an ace hits with no other high cards (where I look to bust shortstack and make bigstack fold). 2p could be worth quite a bit.

Since shortstack didn't push back, you get to see a flop. I like the flop. Bigstack probally didn't hit and shortstack has random and usually hit a pair at best. I bet 125 on the flop to put shortstack all-in, and hopefully keep bigstack out of it.

Comments???

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
His reasoning is still flawed b/c he's at the very least leaving out considerations about CEV vs. $EV of what he considers the 'correct' play.

[/ QUOTE ]
You better show me some figures then. Show me some math.
[ QUOTE ]
Also, just b/c a play on the river is good does not mean play on all streets is good. And the overall play I'm sure is the OPers main concern.


[/ QUOTE ]
You have some nerve since you only talk about preflop. Whenever someone post a hand your standard answer is fold preflop regardless of what the poster was asking for.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I was only talking about the river. If you have something to say about the other streets then go ahead. But wait, I know what you are going to say. Fold Pre flop. Thats all you ever say.

[/ QUOTE ]

Zing! Am I really that easy a target? Oh, I am? Ok....sounds good....

I know you were only talking about the river. And I agree with your point (you probably have to win more than 1 out of 8 times to truly make this profitable IMO, but that's inconsequential) . I'd call there too (you pretty much *have* to). And yes, I'd fold preflop. But soon I will not in this situation.

Yugoslav
Who should be sleeping...as it is *almost* as sublime as folding...

[RobGW]

You can be funny at times though.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

You have some nerve since you only talk about preflop. Whenever someone post a hand your standard answer is fold preflop regardless of what the poster was asking for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do I? I'm not the one making assumptions about what the original poster is looking for. That would be you...

I also have offered my view/opinion/advice on postflop hands. I'd refer you to some thread but it shouldn't be neceessary. Plus, I've never pretended to be good at these STT deal things.

[ QUOTE ]

You better show me some figures then.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, or else what?? Or else you'll jump on all of my tables to my right like Scuba?

As far as the math...I agree with you...you're going to win here way more frequently than you need to. Looking at it from a strictly chip perspective is simple, quick and does the job here. I'd still want to win more than once in eight times, though.

Why the hostility?

Perhaps you should fold more preflop to keep your equanimity....it's sublime...

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
You can be funny at times though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait till you see the freakin' avatar SuitedSixes is making me use....ugh.

Yugoslav

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
You have some nerve since you only talk about preflop. Whenever someone post a hand your standard answer is fold preflop regardless of what the poster was asking for.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I need to defend Yugo, or anyone else who plays tightly pre-flop. Many of the problems that posters get into and need help with could be avoided by folding marginal hands pre-flop and avoiding the situation altogether. Hence the fold pre-flop advice.

[RobGW]

Alright YUGO, no more hostility. Regardless of what the OP was asking for, I was just making a point about the river and I didn't intend to provide ALL the answers. And I was just giving you a hard time about your PF folding tendencies. lol. To each his own.

[RobGW]

You are correct sir. I was just giving Yugo a hard time.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
You are correct sir. I was just giving Yugo a hard time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. And I'm glad you're the only one who does this.

*rolls eyes*

This is what I get for becoming addicted to 2+2.

Yugoslav
PS Someday, I'll be sooooo good at poker, no one will have the balls to give me a hard time no matter what I do.
PPS Then I'll wake up, boot up some $33 STTs and get shallacked...

[AnyTwoCanLose]

If a player throws chips in with nothing on the turn and again on the river... how is that play good?

To say someone is "capable" of it implies that it is a good play done by a clever player.

In a low level SNG... there is nothing clever about it. Playing solidly in a LL SNG (throwing in chips with best hands, folding worst hands) is the way to go.

If you try and put moves on LL SNG monkeys, you'll just wind angry at the poor players that make the wrong move and win your chips.

"Exposing" your hand is the correct play when the people you are playing against are incapable of observing.

[adanthar]

Irieguy summarizes it best, really, except for one thing: folding preflop *is* almost as bad as the actionmonkeys think /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Here, I'll make it really really easy: When you flop an ace, you're ahead 80% of the time and when you're not the UTG guy will let you know once you check dark.

Yugo, Sixes, et al.: You can't sustain your ROI's over the long term if you basically fold every remotely marginal hand PF. It's not possible, if only because a bot can do the same thing and win money. I know Lorinda is a long term winner no matter what she does but her style is weak tight to minimize variance, not because she can't play this hand, and her reasoning is different from yours.

If Party ever changes any aspect of its SNG's you will be as handicapped as everyone in the small stakes NL forum that's now whining about being unable to just push AA on any flop. This is a Really Big -EV Deal.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiousity, if the stack behind me was much larger, does that change your decision here?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Why would that change anything? The thing about the river is that it doesn't change anything about the hand. All it does is allow you to tie with an A8 or A6 (if it were out there, which it doesn't seem like it is). If the stack behind were going to raise, it really seems like he would have raised the turn. The river didn't change anything.


[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I think it changes things is that I don't intend to call a reraise. And that I didn't want to be exposed to a hand check raising a hole - 7. For god sakes, he trained a 4, why couldn't he train a 7?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
... Scuba completed with A-Crap Suited because he was hoping to hit a home run when he made the nut flush. When the Ace came on the flop he talked himself into staying in for just one more card, 'cause he could make two pair and still hit a homerun. When the turn gave him a four flush he just knew he was going to hit a homerun on the river because . . . well, this is Party Poker. When the river didn't bring him a flush he folded because that's what he was looking for all along.

And that is why we don't complete with Ace-Crap Suited. Unless you are a post-flop God like curtains, ChrisV, et al.


[/ QUOTE ]

That is EXACTLY what happened/went through my mind. So, I have one of two leaks:

1) I need to learn to fold this preflop, because
2) I have very poor post flop play.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: Based on the checks I assume that nobody else has an Ace and that I have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoala, the post flop play leak.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
So, Scuba, if you are winning, it's because you push and fold well.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
But I insulted Scuba, so mine is more fun

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm not sure which comments were the insults, so none taken. Plus, posting this thread, I intentionally left myself swinging in the wind, so all insults/criticisms welcomed. And frankly, I take your first comment above as a compliment.

With hindsight, it's now easy for me to diagnose my mistake here. Maybe I can be a postflop god (or just good enough) someday. But I would have to push or fold less.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, there are only couple of players at the $33 level capable of making such a play on purpose, and I think I know them all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm, luckily pushing or folding is the great equalizer.

[ QUOTE ]
If Party ever changes any aspect of its SNG's you will be as handicapped as everyone in the small stakes NL forum that's now whining about being unable to just push AA on any flop. This is a Really Big -EV Deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

ruh-roh (scooby doo talk)

[rachelwxm]

adanthar, although I don't necessarily fold Axs from sb with one limper, here I think folding is better choice only because the short stack bb is involved. I have seen a lot of TINY stack push from bb and I think it is a good move as long as you are not a huge underdog trying to get HU against limper. If you will not call if bb pushes, there is good chance you lost 50 right there.

Although I think my A5s might be the best hand, I don't want to call 225 PF out of position. Therefore I fold here most of the time. I play weak tight if there is desperate short stack involved.

[adanthar]

Fair enough. Nobody was really talking about that so I ignored it but that particular concern's valid. I just haven't seen that play much at low limits (but then again it's been a while.)

Assuming you don't think he'll push, though...

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

I know Lorinda is a long term winner no matter what she does but her style is weak tight to minimize variance, not because she can't play this hand, and her reasoning is different from yours.


[/ QUOTE ]

The only way to minimize OOTM/losing stream variance is to maximize your ITM. The only way to minimize $$ variance is to maximize your ROI. So, if Lorinda is advocating a weak/tight approach to a situation to minimize variance, then by definition she is doing so because that line maximizes ITM and ROI.

I know you don't really believe, Adanthar, that it is possible to play in such a way that your variance is minimized without maximizing your profitability. A lot of players subscribe to this fallacious concept... but I'm pretty sure you are not one of them.

As far as your assertion that folding preflop is worse than I let on, and to address your comments to SS and Yugo: the more chips you have, the better your opponents are, and the better you are... the worse this fold would be. BUT, since this is a $33 SNG and the hero is in the small blind... experience has shown me that typical solid (not expert) players will bungle this hand frequently enough to make a preflop fold a pretty good option.

If you are a smart person, who beats low limit SNGs, but you've only been playing NL holdem for less than 2 years- you have some automatic leaks (i'm not refering to you here, Adanthar):

You can't play post flop and you can't play the blinds worth a lick.

So, while the good but inexperienced NLH player is developing their post-flop skills, it is prudent to avoid situations like this AS LONG AS the monkeys are going to continue to play the bubble so poorly. That's why you can't get away with this fold at the $55's and up.

Do you agree, Adanthar?

Irieguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: Based on the checks I assume that nobody else has an Ace and that I have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoala, the post flop play leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Nonononono. The postflop leak is not your assumption that you have the best hand. It's the assumption that if you have the best hand you must bet it, and if you don't think you have the best hand you must check it.

That assumption is so prevalent here and sucks so much that if Party ever changes their SNG stacks to 1500 and makes no other changes it'll turn 2/3 of the forum into break even players at best.

I make no representation as to how to play this hand postflop because Irieguy and I play this very differently from Gigabet and the rank and file of 2+2 posters play it differently from all three of us. I honestly don't know which of those approaches works better but I suspect that it greatly depends on the texture of the game.

What I do know for sure is that if I see another 'fold AQ PF to a level 1 minraise by a monkey?' thread or a 'fold Axs getting 7:1 and closing the action in an unraised pot' thread I'm gonna petition Mat for a SNG forum dedicated solely to postflop play and then never post in this one again, because after you work out the bubble calculations it all works out to 'hey, here's how you program Saabpo v2.0'.

[adanthar]

Not quite true. IIRC, Lorinda's got a limited bankroll which is why she's playing the 10's in the first place. Since I'm pretty sure she's crushing them thoroughly even with that limitation, I don't have any problem with any advice she gives. (For that matter, I should have qualified my post - with a smallish BR that you have to build up bonus whoring, marginal plays can all go out the window.) Anyway, since she's playing for a living and needs a steady income lower variance at the cost of not much ROI is fine.

Of course, you're right about one thing: most of us (and I'm including myself in this - it took going to another site to figure out how bad my blind play was at Party) have these same leaks, and as long as we have those position leaks it turns these marginal winners into marginal losers. But...that's partially this forum's fault.

Ever since I moved over from small stakes this forum has been about posting push or fold hands. That's pretty much 90% of the traffic in it and it takes roughly two weeks to figure all those plays out (four weeks if you include the Gigabet KJ thread and six if you include the 'UTG with 5 chips just folded, what do I do with ATo' threads.)

That's great for Party, but boy, is it ever completely useless for every other site and for every other mode of play. At the same time, somebody posts a hand that was really screwed up like this one - but one that is extremely interesting postflop - and there are 30 'fold PF' posts? Jebus. Yeah, OK, the PF action taken alone from an above average but not great $22 player may cost him .03, but it's missing Yellowstone National Park for the sapling.

I would really like to turn this into a postflop play forum. I think that, not Party, is the future of tournament poker and I would have greatly appreciated this thread if it took that bend. Instead, it's yet another 'fold PF' discussion and it's just not very applicable or interesting.

This place could be a lot more than it is.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Not quite true. IIRC, Lorinda's got a limited bankroll which is why she's playing the 10's in the first place.


[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this is incorrect. I'm pretty sure she's playing almost exclusively the $33s.

However, I think your post has some good insight and reasoning. At some point I'm sure I'll venture more into post-flop play.

Yugoslav

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

I would really like to turn this into a postflop play forum.
This place could be a lot more than it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had the exact same thought a few weeks ago and started making a conscious effort to participate in and spur post flop play discussions.

I could be wrong, but I think if you look at my posts from the past 3 weeks, there's some pretty detaild post flop stuff... my response to a post by Rybones last week comes to mind.

But I'm with you, I'd rather discuss post flop play than preflop and late stage game theory. Mainly because post flop discussion doesn't have the potential to ruin the game, whereas if everybody simply had a vague idea about when you should push and fold on the bubble of a Party SNG, the game would only be marginally beatable.

Irieguy

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Phil V.S. was made ill by the turn check, and the fact that it made him ill made me ill. This isn't limit holdem... betting into 2 players with TPWK/NFD is no way to play the turn with a short stack. What's funny is that the reason why checking is good is because it sets you up for a nice river value-call... oops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Botton line, I couldn't care less about the short stack. His 125 isn't going to change my life, and it's likely to go in the middle no matter what. I'm up against 1 player in my mind, and I think I have that player beat.

Maybe the big stack will bet with a weaker hand, but he didn't bet the flop so I have no reason to think he's going to bet the turn for me. If he's not going to bet, I'm going to.

I'm pretty sure the big stack doesn't have my beat, but a spade flush draw is not out of the question. How many free cards am I supposed to give this guy?

Counting the 125 that is surely going into the pot, there's 425 to win out there. I don't typcially value bet or checkraise with a 10BB stack. I push first and ask questions later.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Botton line, I couldn't care less about the short stack. His 125 isn't going to change my life, and it's likely to go in the middle no matter what. I'm up against 1 player in my mind, and I think I have that player beat.

Maybe the big stack will bet with a weaker hand, but he didn't bet the flop so I have no reason to think he's going to bet the turn for me. If he's not going to bet, I'm going to.

I'm pretty sure the big stack doesn't have my beat, but a spade flush draw is not out of the question. How many free cards am I supposed to give this guy?

Counting the 125 that is surely going into the pot, there's 425 to win out there. I don't typcially value bet or checkraise with a 10BB stack. I push first and ask questions later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know Phil... I'm not convinced the short stack calls your push. In fact, I think it's more likely he has absolutely nothing and will fold. I DO think, however, that if nobody shows any interest in the pot he will consider a desperation push-bluff on the turn or river and I like that.

So it seems to me like a turn push would get you the pot as-is most of the time. You won't get called by a worse hand very often, and I agree with you that you are very likely to be ahead of your LP meek opponent. True, you could be giving a free card... but you aren't going to pay him off very well if he hits, whereas you have a pretty good chance of getting an additional 250 chips if you check-call for value.

Seems like a case of low-risk/medium reward (checking) vs. higher risk/low reward by pushing.

If I can't convince you, tell me, and I'll think about it some more. Maybe I'm wrong.

Irieguy

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I know you don't really believe, Adanthar, that it is possible to play in such a way that your variance is minimized without maximizing your profitability. A lot of players subscribe to this fallacious concept... but I'm pretty sure you are not one of them.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious what the basis for this statement is. Are you using variance in some way I'm not familiar with? Consider the following obviously retarded and pathological example. Say I play SNGs exactly the way I do now, except when I get in the money, I immediately hit "Post & Fold" and walk away. By doing so, I effectively remove all 1sts from my finish distributions, but my ITM is exactly the same as before. How can this do anything but crimp my profitability and decrease my variance?

[microbet]

I'm part of the 'et al' so I'll respond.

I think A5s is usually worth completing SB. But, here I would think the small stack is at least 50/50 to push and then the big stack who just saw you meekly complete has a good chance or re-raising.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Yugoslav
PS Someday, I'll be sooooo good at poker, no one will have the balls to give me a hard time no matter what I do.
PPS Then I'll wake up, boot up some $33 STTs and get shallacked...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not all it's cracked up to be.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Counting the 125 that is surely going into the pot, there's 425 to win out there. I don't typcially value bet or checkraise with a 10BB stack. I push first and ask questions later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering I give your opponents an average of under 2 outs in this hand when behind (worst case scenario, around 4 each; I think the chance they're both drawing dead or have 2 outs waaaaaaay beats a flush draw/gutshot/etc) I think that's a relatively much larger mistake than completing A5s PF.

That's not to say pushing is bad, BTW. It's only bad if a second best hand doesn't call.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
If I can't convince you, tell me, and I'll think about it some more. Maybe I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking isn't wrong. Betting 200 wouldn't be wrong either. I'm not really in a position to say exactly which is better against an opponent I know nothing about.

I'm just saying how I'd probably play the turn. If I see blantant weakness with a good sized pot, I'm going to push. Sometimes, I have a hand, sometimes not. It's the same as a blind steal in my mind.

My push when the 7 rolls off looks like a total bluff, so I fully expect to get called by worse hands like 88 or KK.

Maybe pushing is overkill, but I don't have a lot of room to maneuver at this point in terms of making a smaller bet. I also see no indication that either of these guys are going to bet it for me.

[lorinda]

Just to address a few points in this thread.

In some ways everyone is right. I played the $11s for a considerable time, but now exclusively play $33s.

I would love to talk post flop more, I have the ability, (I've won 10k stack live events, where it is essential) but it is very rarely required in $33s and below.

When I move up to the $55s, which won't be for at least two months and probably more, I'll be playing more post flop.

More importantly, for anyone asking "How do I play this post flop?", The correct answer is almost certainly "Don't".
Even worse if someone says "I want critisism on every street", the correct answer is almost always "Fold preflop" _For that person_.

IF someone asks "Ignoring the fact that I got into this mess, how should I play post flop" then I will answer accordingly, and more people should ask this.


I'm curious what the basis for this statement is. Are you using variance in some way I'm not familiar with?

I have a huge ITM whenever I compare it with other people, however it is not always top heavy.
It is not a conscious effort, it is how I've matured since I restarted my bankroll.
However, when I compare ROI with others that I trust, I'm only about the same.
Having a higher ITM, but equal ROI is a desireable situation for me. It makes no difference to some people, but when trying to maximize income at lower levels, having money always available to take up bonuses and stuff is as much a part of getting the most income possible as raising ROI is.

I'm finally increasing my roll and out of the income=expenses trap, so you'll all get some commentary (assuming I hold it together) on higher games later in the year.

Until then, I'll keep folding marginal hands prelop. Usually.

Lori

[curtains]

I read a post by Ed Miller last night which I think is very important. This is especially in regards to the preflop fold, which is absolutely -EV when compared to calling preflop. I see too many -EV plays to reduce variance, and avoid postflop play and so on. This post/thread by Ed Miller made me think of this phenomena immediately:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1237759&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are a smart person, who beats low limit SNGs, but you've only been playing NL holdem for less than 2 years- you have some automatic leaks (i'm not refering to you here, Adanthar):

You can't play post flop and you can't play the blinds worth a lick.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, you got me.

[ QUOTE ]
I would really like to turn this into a postflop play forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would to. Any ideas, recommendations for how to lean this way?

[ QUOTE ]
When I move up to the $55s, which won't be for at least two months and probably more, I'll be playing more post flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just starting to dabble there now. My ITM and ROI (although postive) really suck there. And I believe it comes down to my inability to play on levels 1-3. So, Lorinda, I anxiously await your move, and subsequent posts.

In fact, I was thinking that the Party Poker $33s are a final destination for some players. The $11s and $22s prepare you very well for the $33s, but the $33s do not prepare you as well for the $55s.

Due to this fact, I'm considering playing some of my games at a different site, like pokerstars. Otherwise, I'm at a loss at what to do.

[lorinda]

I would to. Any ideas, recommendations for how to lean this way?

A curfew on preflop hand quizzes? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Lori

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm curious what the basis for this statement is. Are you using variance in some way I'm not familiar with? Consider the following obviously retarded and pathological example. Say I play SNGs exactly the way I do now, except when I get in the money, I immediately hit "Post & Fold" and walk away. By doing so, I effectively remove all 1sts from my finish distributions, but my ITM is exactly the same as before. How can this do anything but crimp my profitability and decrease my variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

SNG variance as a statistical phenomenon is an interesting beast. I won't rehash what's already been explained:

SNG variance discussion (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1479432&page=&view=&s b=5&o=)


So, you are correct: anything you do to increase 3rd place finishes and decrease 1st place finishes will minimize variance while hurting profitability. But your unique example involves a strategy change that occurs precisely after you have made the money. In real life, there are not really any unifying pre-ITM decision making concepts that will allow you to reduce variance without increasing profitability.

Because of the ITM/OTM binary nature of SNGs (or the 1st/2nd/3rd tertiary payout structure), you can invent situations where you can show decreased variance by decreasing profit... but you can't really apply that to decisions made prior to the bubble.

Good point, though.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

For starters, when in doubt and suited/paired/AQ'd in LP, call and see what happens. You don't have to continue postflop and it may cost you ROI in the short term to do it, but at least you'll get a feel for how to LAG your way into the occasional pot.

After that...change sites. Read my weird hand posts. Read all of the other postflop posts that come up (trust me, there are a ton, they just get buried under the 'fold PF' pile. I've been guilty of that myself, but more in spots where the call is ATo rather than AQ/22/QJs. There's a world of difference.)

When in doubt, try to win the most and lose the least.

BTW, for a good discussion on how to play (something like) this particular hand, start here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1563651 &Forum=,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,f22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,&Words=check%20please&Searchpage=21&Limit=25&Mai n=1563651&Search=true&where=sub&Name=&daterange=1& newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypr ev=1#Post1563651).

[AnyTwoCanLose]

At least in this case... there's no debate about what should have happened on the river. A call was indicated.

Any basic poker book would give this information. Subtle discussion of various issues is meaningless if basic errors are made or simple theory isn't comprehended.

If it is $100 to call in order to win $800 and you think you are beat 3 times out of 4... you call.

[Irieguy]

Did you miss the whole discussion about the turn play? This was one of the better post-flop threads in a long time.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

I'd like to learn one more thing from this post.

Change Mindy's hand from K2 to A2. How do you think this changes her play? And (put yourself into heroes shoes), how would you end up playing this hand subsequently?

[Mammux]

I would raise this all-in preflop, unless Minkrym28 was a very tricky player or the limp was an unusual move for him. You have a hand that plays decently well against the short stack's random hand, and with suitedness and a straight opportunity you even have outs if the big stack wants to play.

The river fold is horrible. Remeber, even a6 and a8 is just a split.

-Magnus