PDA

View Full Version : Average Positive/Negative Session (xpost)

mantasm
03-08-2005, 07:51 PM
Also posted in probability.
Given a winrate in BB/100, a SD, and a # of hands, how would I figure out the mean positive or negative session? I know there has to be a way to calculate this, but I can't figure it out.
Ponks
03-08-2005, 10:08 PM
I'm probably not understanding your question right, but if you win 2bb/100 and play 1000 hands your average session will be +20 BB.

Ponks
mantasm
03-08-2005, 11:04 PM
I'm trying to figure out the mean of the set all sessions with a result >0BB and all session with a result <0BB. So maybe if I play 2000 hands a session, if I have a winning session it will be +30BB on average, and if I end up losing, it will be -10BB on average. I can't think of a good way to put it.
PokrLikeItsProse
03-08-2005, 11:44 PM
It depends. If your session results follow a known distribution, such as the Gaussian (normal) distribution, it is trivially easy. If your sessions follow a skewed distribution (for example, you usually either win a lot or lose a moderate amount), you may just have to go with actually recording data and computing it by hand.
Ponks
03-09-2005, 12:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to figure out the mean of the set all sessions with a result >0BB and all session with a result <0BB. So maybe if I play 2000 hands a session, if I have a winning session it will be +30BB on average, and if I end up losing, it will be -10BB on average. I can't think of a good way to put it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you're saying now, and I'm not sure how to figure it out myself :]

Ponks
mantasm
03-09-2005, 12:18 AM
Yes, assuming a normal distribution. Given a BB/100, SD/100 and # of hands we can get a mean session result and standard deviation. So if I play 2000 hands with a winrate of 2 BB/100 and sd/100 of 15, I'll make on average 40 BB, with a SD of 67 BB. Now how do I find the average of all results >0? This may be trivial but I can't figure it out. And I sold my textbooks that deal with this kind of thing.
BruceZ
03-09-2005, 07:13 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Also posted in probability.
Given a winrate in BB/100, a SD, and a # of hands, how would I figure out the mean positive or negative session? I know there has to be a way to calculate this, but I can't figure it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

See my reply (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1887312&page=0&view=e xpanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post1886580) in the probability forum.