Equity Formula

[Gregg777]

Does anyone know of a simple formula for determining your pot equity?

I have written one up that is accurate 95% of the time to within 5% of poker stove results. But it has a total of 38 factors. Is there anything easier out there?

[elmitchbo]

pot equity is not that complicated dude. you take the number of players that see the flop and calculate the percentage they would contribute to the pot if everyone called a bet. Ex...if their are 5 players then everyone has 20% pot equity. if the odds of making your hand are greater than your pot equity you want to see money go into the pot. i don't think you need poker stove to figure this one out. maybe you could clarify your question?

[threeonefour]

the "odds of making your hand" that you speak of is what he is speaking of when he says pot equity.


when five players see the flop, each does not have 20% pot equity, that would only be true if they all had equally strong hands

[manpower]

From here. (http://www.pokertips.org/glossarydefs/288.php)[ QUOTE ]
Pot equity is your expected value from the pot. Suppose you have a 20% chance to win the pot. There is $100 in the pot. Thus, your pot equity is $20 (.20 *100).

[/ QUOTE ] Although I think a better definition would use chance of winning if all hands hands stayed to the river.

I'll be honest though, I'm curious about your 38 variable formula for calculating pot odds. Care to go into it a little more?

[elmitchbo]

i think your wrong. the odds of making your hand is your pot odds, but that's not what he asked. pot equity is not dependent in any way on each player having equal hands. ex... if i have a nut flush draw in a 5 way pot, then i have 20% pot equity and 35% chance to hit my draw. that gives me a 15% pot equity advantage. however, that doesn't change the fact that i represent 20% of the pot.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your wrong. the odds of making your hand is your pot odds, but that's not what he asked. pot equity is not dependent in any way on each player having equal hands. ex... if i have a nut flush draw in a 5 way pot, then i have 20% pot equity and 35% chance to hit my draw. that gives me a 15% pot equity advantage. however, that doesn't change the fact that i represent 20% of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, that isn't what pot equity is. One concept of pot equity is, suppose everyone turned their hand face-up and agreed to divide up the pot; what would be the fairest split?

[Gregg777]

Heh, I guess the answer to my question is “No”.

Elmitchbo,

The way equity is discussed at times is confusing. Let’s say there are two types of equity, pot equity and hand equity.

Pot equity is the percentage you contribute based on the number of players.

Hand equity is the percentage of likelihood that your hand is best.

For example, Poker Stove says you have a hand equity of 84.9% if you hold AcQd and the flop is 5hQc7s. Against 4 opponents your pot equity is 20%, but your hand equity is 84.9%.

It is coming up with the 84.9% that I am inquiring about…

Manpower,

It is pretty simple if you just fiddle with Poker Stove a bit. For example, on the river a mid pair is worth roughly 65%. However, there are other factors to consider: if there is an over card, subtract x amount; if there is an ace, subtract x amount; if you have a weak kicker subtract x amount.

Work out all of the reasons you could be beaten and you will come up with all of the variables. Then do enough hands on Poker Stove to see roughly what value is given to each one on the flop, turn, and river.

I am not trying to get some magical equity percentage to decide what I am going to do. Instead, I am using it more as an exercise to practice identifying the value of my hand.

[elmitchbo]

i think you right.... the answer to your question is 'no'. i'm curious to see your 38 factor equation. it seems like a 'hand strength' formula might be too complicated to use in any practical way. but if you can figure it out, i'd like to see it.

in order to use it on the fly i think you'll be forced to simplify the formula so much that it won't tell you much more than a common sense assessment.

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
No, that isn't what pot equity is. One concept of pot equity is, suppose everyone turned their hand face-up and agreed to divide up the pot; what would be the fairest split?


[/ QUOTE ]

yes, this is the point i was trying to get across. in retrospect my post was pretty unclear.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot equity is the percentage you contribute based on the number of players.

[/ QUOTE ]
That statement is totally wrong.

[Gregg777]

Then I am still confused with the term. If you look at the way elmitchbo was using it, that is what he meant.

How about pot equity is the probability you have the best hand. And the 20% figure is simply your contribution?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know of a simple formula for determining your pot equity?

I have written one up that is accurate 95% of the time to within 5% of poker stove results. But it has a total of 38 factors. Is there anything easier out there?

[/ QUOTE ]


I ran into the same problem when I was trying to write a pokerbot for draw5. I was able to easily quantify your chances of improving to a flush, straight, and straightflush, but it was hard to quantify the value of drawing when you held a pair in your hand.

Are you trying to write a Hold'em bot?

[JoshuaD]

I don't know why everyone's having trouble with the term "equity".

Equity is simply how often you are going to win the pot. If you flip a coin, your equity is 50%. If you pick the number 6 and roll a dice, your equity is 1/6.

Betting is irrelevent.

[Gregg777]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying to write a Hold'em bot?

[/ QUOTE ]

No


[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why everyone's having trouble with the term "equity".

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there are dozens of threads on 2+2 where the term keeps getting misused.

People say your equity is 20% if there are 5 players, but if you have a very strong hand, it is really 85%.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Then I am still confused with the term. If you look at the way elmitchbo was using it, that is what he meant.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it's what he meant, but it's not the right answer.

How much money you personally contributed into the pot doesn't have much bearing on pot equity. Once you contributed it, it's not your money anymore.

[Gregg777]

[ QUOTE ]
How much money you personally contributed into the pot doesn't have much bearing on pot equity. Once you contributed it, it's not your money anymore.


[/ QUOTE ]

That isn't what he meant either. He was referring to future bets, not money already in the pot.

When he talks about calling, he is referring to your decision on whether or not to call. If you have a 35% equity and 5 people will put money in, then you are contributing 20% to win 35%. He said nothing about money already in the pot.

[elmitchbo]

exactly.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How much money you personally contributed into the pot doesn't have much bearing on pot equity. Once you contributed it, it's not your money anymore.


[/ QUOTE ]

That isn't what he meant either. He was referring to future bets, not money already in the pot.



[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, that's what you were asking, not him.

[ QUOTE ]

When he talks about calling, he is referring to your decision on whether or not to call. If you have a 35% equity and 5 people will put money in, then you are contributing 20% to win 35%. He said nothing about money already in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but that's not pot equity either. Your equity is the 35% that you're talking about. The 20% has nothing to do with it, other than deciding whether or not to make the call (or raise or fold)

[jimymat]

The way I think of pot equity is in terms of how much of the pot I expect to win. ( this can be in $ or bet size ) The best example is if I flop a nut flush draw with four people in the pot, and bet out, if everyone calls I will have invested 20% of the pot with a 35% chance of winning. My pot equity is 20% but my pot equity edge becomes 15%, the difference between my equity and the chance of making my hand. This is called a +EV play to bet into the field rather than check and call, depending on the amount of callers. In this situation as long as two other people called I would be breaking even. Whew! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[New York Jet]

[ QUOTE ]
For example, Poker Stove says you have a hand equity of 84.9% if you hold AcQd and the flop is 5hQc7s. Against 4 opponents your pot equity is 20%, but your hand equity is 84.9%.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming your opponents have random hands. I would argue that once a player enters the pot preflop, they no longer have a random hand.