Implied odds calculations

[madscout]

I recently played in a raised pot heads up where I got an OE straight draw on the flop, which was king high with two hearts. I was assuming I had 8 outs, possibly 6 if my opponent had the flush draw.

He made a 1/2 pot size bets on the flop, which I called.
Turn was a blank, and another 1/2 size pot bet. At this point he is betting about $10 into a $20 pot and has $30 behind, I have him covered.

I feel like he will have a hard time releasing if I connect my straight (I had a double gapped connector.. hard to see on the board if I hit). I call and hit my straight on the river, no heart. He bets $10 more and I put him all in. He hesitates and calls, showing Qh Kh. I breathed a sigh of relief knowing that I was drawing much more slim than I had thought!

In analyzing the situation, I created an excel spread sheet where you enter some key variables: opponents stack, my stack, pot size, size of the bet I need to call, number of live outs, and the probability my opponent will pay me off if I connect. It then outputs (implied odds) / (odds of making my hand on the next card), if it is > 1 it highlights green, if it is < 1 it highlights red. If I assume my opponent pays me off 100% of the time, it turns out my call was correct if I had 8 outs, but incorrect if I had 6:

http://www.efficacymusic.com/random/ryanwold/odds.jpg

Do those numbers seem correct to the math guys out there?

Another way to look at it is, say 10% of the time this situation arises he has two hearts (just a rough estimate, er guess)... on average this gives me 0.1*6 + 0.9*8 = 7.8 outs. Also, if we assume he pays me off 100% of the time I connect with my 6 non-heart outs, and 0% of the time I connect with my 2 heart outs (because making a flush here is much more obvious), he will pay me off 1.0*( 6/8 ) + 0.0*( 2/8 ) = 75% of the time:

http://www.efficacymusic.com/random/ryanwold/odds2.jpg

This would make my calls on the flop and turn correct in the long run.

This is not the exact correct way to analyze the situation, because a true EV analysis of this hand would have to include the times I pay him off when he makes his flush and I make my straight. Any thoughts?
Thanks in advance!

~madscout

[pokerponcho]

Howard Lederer says in his DVD set that a proper wager in this situation when you are confident that you have the best hand on the turn and your opponent is likely drawing (which clearly you are with that board) is about 60%-80% of the pot. I usually bet that much, or more even if I think they'll call incorrectly anyways. I lean towards 80%. He played it sort've weak for having a strong hand like that.

pokerponcho

[madscout]

bump... any responses from the experienced NL players on my thought process for calculating implied odds?

pokerponcho, I agree that his 1/2 pot bets were too small for me to lay down my draw.

[Mark1808]

I am not following your spread sheet exactally, but it should include an estimation of a bet on the turn to have the correct implied odds. So it should have your flop bet, turn bet and expected pay off (opponents stack). One key variable is your percent chance to be paid off, 100% is probably far too high in most cases for any sizable bet.

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not following your spread sheet exactally, but it should include an estimation of a bet on the turn to have the correct implied odds. So it should have your flop bet, turn bet and expected pay off (opponents stack). One key variable is your percent chance to be paid off, 100% is probably far too high in most cases for any sizable bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry the spreadsheet is unclear... Basically it examines a potential call on flop and a call on the turn independently. For the 'flop call' column, it is calculating your odds for hitting one of your outs on the NEXT card only, not on the remaining two cards. The reason for this is, if my opponent bets 1/2 the pot on the turn and I call correctly but miss, then he goes all in on the turn, I have to fold. It would therefor be incorrect to calculate my odds on the flop using two cards to come because he very well might set me in on the turn.

The 'turn call' column is different than the 'flop call' column because there is one less card in the deck, decreasing the odds slightly.

Does this make it more clear? Thanks!

~mad