Free winrate Spreadsheet

[Dreamer]

There is often discussion talking about winrates after X amounts of hands.
I thought I would make a simple spreadsheet to show the confidence someone is a winning player after x amount of hands.
It highlights better than words how 10,000 hand samples are too small to judge long term winrate.
Anyway hope someone finds it useful after plugging then PT numbers into it.
http://dreamer5.topcities.com/index5.html

D.

[Crix]

Very interesting spreadsheet. I'm a bit befuddled by the CI figure though. Can you elaborate on that a bit?

[Dreamer]

My brother used to live in Preston, now lives in Blackpool.

If you run your mouse over the spreadsheet, I made little comment boxes which pop up explaining where to get each of the stats and what it means.

As an example 95% CI relates to about 2 standard (1.96) deviations away from the predicted or observed result.

Say you have 30K hands at 3/6 with a winrate of 2.8 BB/100 and a SD of 17 leaving the CI set at 95.
It says that there is a 95% chance that your real long term winrate is between 0.87 BB and 4.72 BB per hour.
As you add more hands you notice that the two numbers will converge.
Now you might want to know what chance is the player with 30K hands/2.8bb/100 lucky and has no skill.

Well by adjusting the CI to say 99.5, we can say its almost certain the player has skill and is a winning player.
(remember he is also overcoming the rake)

So although it take many hands to determine true winrate and level of skill, it doesn`t take that many to determine if a player is playing a better than break even game.

D.

[Mizzles]

I have to manually enter the data or is there a way to directly extract the data from PT

[Dreamer]

It takes like 20 seconds to type in the data from PT??????

D.

[Chiron]

bump

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[walshamatic]

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