66 raises limpers from the Button

[pokerstudAA]

The small pocket pair saga continues.....

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Once again the small PP raise from the button with many limpers......no way they put me on the set if it comes....no problems here.

Flop: (16 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Wait until the turn to raise? I raised here to push out any diamond draws that might take the pot from my set.

Turn: (12 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Another easy raise here? Keep charging worse hands. I have no reason to think anyone is ahead here - much less that they have me read for 66. Mabye they see me as having an overpair or AK whiff?

River: (20 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Check this river? It certainly looks like someone was chasing the diamonds all the way to the river. Two cold calls of 2 bets on the turn.....Value bet or looking to get check raised?

Final Pot: 20 BB

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (16 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Wait until the turn to raise? I raised here to push out any diamond draws that might take the pot from my set.


[/ QUOTE ]

Rethink your strategy here dude.

Your raise is 100% correct - but it's not because you are pushing out diamond draws - it's because you have a very strong hand right now. One that, even the times a flush does get there, you will have opportunities to outdraw them.

Waiting to the turn raise would be foolhardy because you are passing up bets on hands that are willing to give you money now.

You'll collect those bets now, where as if a blank falls on the turn, they will probably only check to you, and you'd loose a chance to raise if they are playing a flush draw.

Get your money in on the flop.

edit-- and the river too...wtf?

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[jt1]

flop: I'm not sure but let me go over my thinking. With a raise 1) you won't push anyone out except runner draws. 2) the pot is big enough to warrant pushing out runner draws.
With a call and raise on the turn 1) you kill the odds for gutshots but not for flush draws. 2) if UTG2 is betting a 9, he might get scared if an overcard comes and check.

I can't think of any other arguments either way. I vote for raising the flop.

River: I'd bet due to the number of players. I'd say with 3 other players you need to be right about a quarter of the time, maybe 30%.

[djr]

don't know about the pf raise, but I like everything else. Definately check the river, you don't want to risk a likely check raise.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Waiting to the turn raise would be foolhardy because you are passing up bets on hands that are willing to give you money now.


[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point. Kids who are drawing dead will often call a single big bet with 2 over cards, but certainly won't call 2 bb on the turn with the same thing. Ofcourse if they have a diamond, they won't be drawing dead ...but they still have the odds to call 1 bb, while they may have odds to call 1 sb.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

Wait until the turn to raise? I raised here to push out any diamond draws that might take the pot from my set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, don't try and protect sets. Flush draws already have the odds to continue. I'm not saying to raise or call the flop. I'm saying your reasoning is suspect.

Turn is fine. River is fine.

Krishan

[stoxtrader]

I would bet the river for value.

[Pocket Trips]

I would still bet the river.. especially if u r an aggresive player who will raise w/ the nut flush draw and ur opps know that.. if they have a small flush they checked most likely b/c they put u on a bigger flush draw...if they do have a flush u lose 1 bet if they cannot beat trips and call u gain 3 bets... ok just saw there was a str8 draw there too.. but u still have 2 take everyone checking to u as a sign of weakness and make them pay 4 it

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

Krishan

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Once again the small PP raise from the button with many limpers......no way they put me on the set if it comes....no problems here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're doing this 1 of of 100 times (no math involved here) that might be fine. If you're making this play with any consistency, I think you're going to be in trouble. There's not a good reason to be raising a small pair with a 12% chance to get trips...there's no equity here. If you don't hit a set on the flop, your hand's over.

Not to mention the fact that most of your opponents at this level are not even trying to put you on a hand and if they did, they may have even forgotten that you raised PF.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're doing this 1 of of 100 times (no math involved here) that might be fine. If you're making this play with any consistency, I think you're going to be in trouble. There's not a good reason to be raising a small pair with a 12% chance to get trips...there's no equity here. If you don't hit a set on the flop, your hand's over.


[/ QUOTE ]

The pots giving him 5-1 to hit his set. 1 )The odds of hitting the set by the turn are close to that. 2) He'll win without improving some of the time. (btw if anyone wants to post a hand where he raised on button with a small pp and bet the flop after not hitting - pleze do so) 3) He'll get more action when he does hit as long as an ace doesn't spike.

[QTip]

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous....might as well raise with 22 while you're at it.

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous....might as well raise with 22 while you're at it.

[/ QUOTE ]



OK - next time I will. I think you can make this play with any pocket pair 22+. I think I might limp/raise 50/50 with 22-55 and limp/raise 66-99 about 20/80 and raise 1010+ 100%.

I will post the 22 hand once it happens for your comments.


I am starting to consider this standard - is that so wrong?

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)


Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont disagree that a flush is possible, but is the frequency you lose two bets vs the flush worth more than the calls you get the times you are best and do value bet?

ultimately it depends on some pretty good assumptions and the math gets a bit involved.

[jt1]

According to my calculations, you are 6.5-1 to hit by the turn. So if it will get you the free card, then it's worth it. My problem with the raise is that it's value depends on if your flop play is such that you know when you should bet a missed flop, and when you should take the free card.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't hit a set on the flop, your hand's over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if the flop is checked to you.

[savagetiper]

Hey, just giving my 2 cents.
Pre flop- I think its just a call w/ 66 from any position unless strategies in 1/2 and 2/4 are different
Flop- Id just call and hope for the over call on it
Turn- Raise is fine
River- Check seems good because if they hit the flush they would check it to the betters to raise
Just my thoughts tell me what you think
-Andrew

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I will post the 22 hand once it happens for your comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me save you the trouble. Here are my comments:

This is ridiculous. You might as well raise with 66 while you're at it.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous....might as well raise with 22 while you're at it.

[/ QUOTE ]



OK - next time I will. I think you can make this play with any pocket pair 22+. I think I might limp/raise 50/50 with 22-55 and limp/raise 66-99 about 20/80 and raise 1010+ 100%.

I will post the 22 hand once it happens for your comments.


I am starting to consider this standard - is that so wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's going to be table dependent, situation dependent. Just because you have the button, I would take that as leave to raise all my tweener/baby pairs.

That being said - I think with 5 limpers, it's "ok". It's not standard, but it's also not out of the ordinary.

The comment about "mine as well raise with 22" is irrelevant. I think the poster that made the comment realizes that were not playing because we have 66 or 22, but were building a pot for *IF* we hit a set - and the strength of the set isn't as important compared to the strentgh of top pair.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I will post the 22 hand once it happens for your comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me save you the trouble. Here are my comments:

This is ridiculous. You might as well raise with 66 while you're at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it is not standard, it is not ridiculous either. You're not losing much by raising...worst case scenario, the flop comes w/3 overcards, you fold to any action...raising in these spots is no big deal.

[Fat Nicky]

Hate the river check. Right you could be check-raised by a flush a percentage of the time, but you will gain an extra bet from 1 or more of your opponents that were playing middle pair, or 2 pair...some opponents also could have been on straight draws. either way...horrible check, i'm suprised that some posters like it...

[QTip]

You want in cheap with this hand...because 90% of the time you're folding on the flop. What would be really great is getting 3 bet here from someone being tricky limping in with a big suited broadway or something like that....this play sucks.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the river bet is easy.

[meep_42]

I really like the PF raise.

2 bets to win 11.5 (5 limpers aren't folding, SB + BB), if neither of the blinds come -- you only have to make up -3.5- SB to make this play EV neutral. Couple that with the fact that you'll flop a draw sometimes, you'll get a free card sometimes, and you'll win UI sometimes; and I think this raise with a mid-pair should be standard. (lower sets lose more of the time, so the value goes down the lower the initial pair, obviously.)

-d

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
You want in cheap with this hand...because 90% of the time you're folding on the flop. What would be really great is getting 3 bet here from someone being tricky limping in with a big suited broadway or something like that....this play sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise JJ here?
You raise ATs here?
QJs?
9Ts?
TT?

What if I told you that the difference in hand equity between JJ and 66 (against 5 random hands) is only 10% favoring the Jacks.

Which is huge - but with Jacks, chances are you go farther with the hand (and still lose), than you with 66. With the 66's more often than not, your folding to any bet that doesn't hit your set.

I'm not saying this is standard - but its not so horrible either.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the river bet is easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call if it's one-bet back or fold to any more action?

[hate]

[ QUOTE ]
You want in cheap with this hand...because 90% of the time you're folding on the flop. What would be really great is getting 3 bet here from someone being tricky limping in with a big suited broadway or something like that....this play sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Immediate odds against 5 limpers have you at 20% equity with any pocket pair when I did some pokerstove simulations. I've got no clue where the 8% you don't hit the set on the flop comes from, perhaps from pots that are big enough to see the turn or gutshots that add value.

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the river bet is easy.

[/ QUOTE ]


What makes the river bet easy?

Is it possilbe that many people can get tied to middle of the road 5-out draws and weak overpairs to cold call two on the turn without a flush draw?

[pokerstudAA]

I either get 3 bets when I am ahead or lose 2 bets when I am behind?

I really dont understand what makes the river bet easy.

[QTip]

It's hard for me to believe I'm hearing this. JJ will flop undercards 33% of the time on top of the 12% flopping the set. As you said...huge difference. I think you should be greatful that you can get in for only 1 sb at this point...why even risk the 3 bet.

And meep, this isn't a mid-pair, it's a small pair.

Does anyone recall in SSHE on page 88 where it talks about how raising PF reduces your postflop expectation?

None of this talk of raising a small pair in late position against this field makes any sense to me. You're not going to win UI in this field, period. I think a play like this just means that you have to win more when you do flop a set in order to make up for the times when you raised a small pair...it's just not going to happen. I'm still saying this play is -EV. I can't see any evidence to the contrary.

[Sarge85]

OK, granted the JJ was a stretch (as poker stove continue to compute the gap widened)

However...there is no reason to think were up against such a hand also.

This hand is just a drawing hand like the others mentioned. You can get away from it easily, post flop if it misses, and it ties other to the pot with a wide range of hands.

It's not SOP, but it's not necessairly a bad move. Especially if they check to him on the flop, giving him a free chance to hit on the turn -- and you know that happens.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[QTip]

I'm after plays that are +EV...let me explain myself, and we'll see where I might be missing it.

OK...

You're going to flop your set 12% of the time...so we'll make this easy and say you're going to win about 1 out of 10 times. I think that's generous given the times that you'll flop your set and be outdrawn anyway of beat by a larger set.

We'll play this hand 10 times exactly the way it was here PF.

9 times you raise 5 limpers and it costs you 18sb...again, we'll be generous and say you never get 3 bet, which will happen some % of the time. Now, let's say that you play well PF and don't call a bet on the flop to chase your 6 or get FPS and raise the flop after a bet. Heck, among all these things I'm talking about here, I think it's fair to throw a couple of sbs on top of the 18sb..let's say 23 sbs are spent on our first 9 hands.

OK...now, our 10th hand we raise PF and hit our set. We've already won an extra 5 sbs from our PFR (assuming we're not beat by a larger set or are outdrawn), so now we need to make up for about 18 sbs to compensate for our wrecklessness the other 9 times...I just don't think you're going to make up the difference. Especially if the flop is something like A62...everyone's going to be scare of the Ace...you're not going to make up the difference.

Whereas, if you had simply limped, you would only have to be making up 9 sb (we can add a couple more and say 14 sbs)...this is much more doable.

That's my thinking...we have no edge to push PF. Why are we pushing?

[Sarge85]

While the orginal poster didn't ellude to it, your leaving out a few other factors....

1) Table texture.... a Laggy Table you can expect to make up those bets..easily

2) Flop texture -- how many times do you miss AK, and then get CR'ed when you make a "stab" at the pot? Not every flop is going to have broadway cards in it. AND if 5 other people stayed in PF anyway...chances are they caught a piece of it, and WILL pay you off.

3) The situation comes up so infrequently...it's really not going to matter one way or another how you play it.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
so now we need to make up for about 18 sbs to compensate for our wrecklessness the other 9 times

[/ QUOTE ]

you only need to make up 4 sb, so like Sarge mentioned, if you got 1 LAG (not maniac) in the group than raising is cool, especially if the LAG is UTG.... and doesn't check raise /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

if any maniacs are loose than just call as you're likely to be 3 bet.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Table texture.... a Laggy Table you can expect to make up those bets..easily


[/ QUOTE ]

True...but at the same time, they're not going to check to you on the flop either.

[ QUOTE ]
3) The situation comes up so infrequently...it's really not going to matter one way or another how you play it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I can accept that for this instance; however, if someone makes this play with any small PP late with several limpers, they will lose money in the long run.

I think it's important to point this out because there are plenty of new people that read these things and will just take off raising small PP on the button because wwweeeeee, it's fun.

Thanks for the conversation.

[krishanleong]

SFer [ QUOTE ]
I think the river bet is easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread the river as being 3 handed with the two players that cold called the turn in on the river. I'd estimate off the top of my head that your good about 60% of the time.

This makes the river bet close, but profitable. How often do you think your good here?

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone recall in SSHE on page 88 where it talks about how raising PF reduces your postflop expectation?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't always true. There comes a point where your postflop expectation does not decrease because the pot is so large everyone stays in with draws when their equity doesn't warrent it.

Krishan

[sfer]

They checked to you on a 6947J board with 3 diamonds. The button is checking a lot of hands here so a made flush/straight is going to bet. This is not a difficult value bet.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see any evidence to the contrary.

[/ QUOTE ]

Evidence to the contrary:

I have 5 different TTH lineups that I feel approximate PP 2/4 pretty well. Some aggro some passive, with a range of tightness.

With 5 limpers and 66 on the button, the average expectation for raising vs calling is as follows:

Raise: 0.322 BB
Call: 0.16 BB

Even before looking at this, I'm raising here nearly 100% of the time.

Also, I don't think anyone has mentioned folding the blinds and adding dead money is an incentive for raising. Any raggy hand that makes a straight when you make a set, that otherwise would have folded from a blind costs you big time.

EDIT: For reference, you cannot say that the expected value of 66 with 5 limpers is 0.32 or 0.16 because it was programed to fold when the pot was raised, so 0 is added to the total value for all trials with a raise. (Thus, you can only use these numbers to compare choices)

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
They checked to you on a 6947J board with 3 diamonds. The button is checking a lot of hands here so a made flush/straight is going to bet. This is not a difficult value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

There is a great section in SSH (I can't find it right now) that talks about river betting. When the diamond comes off, you could estimate that you have a 60% chance of having the best hand. BUT, many players would bet their flush if they made it; granted, however, some WILL check here. So, once they check, you are able to increase that number to, say, 80%. (these are off the top of my head, of course). Bet it.

[Jake (The Snake)]

On average, how many bets do you think you will win when you bet and are called on the river?

I'd say probably about 2.

What happens if you are chechraised? You lose 2 bets.

Do you really think you will be checkraised here 50% of the time? No way.

This is all worst case scenario. The river bet is easy.

Also, I don't like the PRF though it's probably not horrendous, just bad.

The river check is horrendous IMO.

[Jellyroll]

I ran a simulation with a bunch of typical hands that you might see and 66:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=816059
pokenum -h as kc - qc 9c - ks 5s - jd 9d - 6c 6s
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kc 195062 22.93 647321 76.10 8285 0.97 0.233
Qc 9c 175054 20.58 668895 78.63 6719 0.79 0.209
Ks 5s 87863 10.33 754520 88.70 8285 0.97 0.107
Jd 9d 182308 21.43 661641 77.78 6719 0.79 0.217
6s 6c 197955 23.27 650135 76.43 2578 0.30 0.233

It looks like you have a pretty considerable edge in a situation like this. Although, I'm familiar with the idea of making a play like this to entice people to play on with marginal hands if you hit your set.

It's suggested you raise KTs against a bunch of limpers. To see your edge in a situation like that:

pokenum -h ks ts - qc 9c - ac 9h - jd 9d - 6c 6s
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ts 214978 25.27 634506 74.59 1184 0.14 0.253
Qc 9c 132837 15.62 711776 83.67 6055 0.71 0.158
Ac 9h 150671 17.71 693942 81.58 6055 0.71 0.179
Jd 9d 160468 18.86 684145 80.42 6055 0.71 0.191
6s 6c 185659 21.83 663825 78.04 1184 0.14 0.219

KTs is almost as much of a favorite here as 66 was in the previous hand, with 66 now in a close second.

I would imagine raising preflop with this considerable edge would be +EV. Also, it's easy to fold when you whiff, but collect a bunch more bets if you hit as people will be more willing to play on after the flop.

JellyRoll

[Jake (The Snake)]

If you are fairly sure the blinds will call as they did, I think the raise is good. If not, I'm not so sure...

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)


Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont disagree that a flush is possible, but is the frequency you lose two bets vs the flush worth more than the calls you get the times you are best and do value bet?

ultimately it depends on some pretty good assumptions and the math gets a bit involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the other thing is that people are going to play differently in a pot this large - calling down with any pair, gutshot and so forth. In a normal size pot, you can usually narrow down cold calling hands to strong draws, slowplays, and possibly weakly-played hands like top pair middling kicker by passive opponents. In huge pots like this, people will cold call much more liberally.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like the PF raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do too. In fact, with 7 opponents, it may be more +EV to raise here than to just limp. Hero surely has an equity edge when there are 8 opponents. Considering implied odds, hero is investing 1 extra SB to win multiple additional double-sized bets later in the hand.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the other thing is that people are going to play differently in a pot this large - calling down with any pair, gutshot and so forth. In a normal size pot, you can usually narrow down cold calling hands to strong draws, slowplays, and possibly weakly-played hands like top pair middling kicker by passive opponents. In huge pots like this, people will cold call much more liberally.

[/ QUOTE ]

I conceed. Between the large pot and the chance that someone would be if they had a flush, I think this is a fairly easy value bet on the river as well. Like Nate says, in a smaller pot you can usually read people who call two cold for a good draw, but when the pot is large, people stay in with much weaker hands.

Krishan

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) Table texture.... a Laggy Table you can expect to make up those bets..easily


[/ QUOTE ]

True...but at the same time, they're not going to check to you on the flop either.



[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.stupidstuff.org/yahtzee/yahtzee.jpg

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif