AQo. Way too aggressive?

[fluxrad]

God I suck at playing these types of hands. Check/fold the flop next time?

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (6.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

[nyc999]

I don't mind the flop bet, sometimes that will win the hand. However, I think you need to see the river for free and fold to a bet unimproved.

[Nick Royale]

Would have played it the same. MP1 folds this turn more than 18% of the time.

[djr]

I like the flop bet. You've got two opponents who limped in before your PFR, they could have anything (reads on them?). With a K out, they're only sticking around with the flush draw or a hole K. You win more often than not on that flop. Betting again on the turn is iffy and depends on the opponents. Some people will see a turn card no matter what the flop looks like, but will then fold the turn to the double sized bet if they miss. You have to decide if villian is the type to do that or not. Check the river.

[DBG]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop bet. You've got two opponents who limped in before your PFR, they could have anything (reads on them?). With a K out, they're only sticking around with the flush draw or a hole K. You win more often than not on that flop. Betting again on the turn is iffy and depends on the opponents. Some people will see a turn card no matter what the flop looks like, but will then fold the turn to the double sized bet if they miss. You have to decide if villian is the type to do that or not. Check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tiltaholic]

this hand i am confident is well played everywhere.
now go look at my AQ hand i just posted /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Dave H.]

I gotta believe someone has paired when the flop falls. If they've paired the King, I have 3 outs and if they've paired something else, I have 6 outs. I'm going to discount the Queen pairing because of the King on the board and give myself 5 outs. So after the flop has fallen, I need about 8.5 bets in the pot to make it a worthwhile contribution.

I can see trying to steal with the flop bet, but I wouldn't go any further with it...lousy pot odds.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see trying to steal with the flop bet, but I wouldn't go any further with it...lousy pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
MP1 folds this turn more than 18% of the time.

[Bodhi]

is MP1 loose and passive? If so he's not going to fold any pair. Against tight opponents I bet the turn. If they're terrible and I think they have a pair, I might check this turn and see the river for free.

[fluxrad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see trying to steal with the flop bet, but I wouldn't go any further with it...lousy pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
MP1 folds this turn more than 18% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive my present state of idiocy, but where are you getting 18% to be profitable?

[Nick Royale]

0.18*4.7 = ~0.82*1

You'll lose 0.82*1= -0.82 BB (when he calls)
You'll gain 0.18*4.7= 0.84 BB (when he folds)

If he folds excactly 18% of the time your immediate profit is:
0.84-0.82= +0.02 BB (on average)

And that's only the immediate profit. Pretty often he'll be on some kind of draw (gut-shot, flush, OESD, if he's behind with any of these draws the bet is for value.)

To count the breakeven point (for the immediate profit) for this bet:
1/(4.7+1)= 17.54%

I think he'll fold far more than 17.54% which means this bet is a must.

[Dave H.]

[ QUOTE ]
0.18*4.7 = ~0.82*1

You'll lose 0.82*1= -0.82 BB (when he calls)
You'll gain 0.18*4.7= 0.84 BB (when he folds)

If he folds excactly 18% of the time your immediate profit is:
0.84-0.82= +0.02 BB (on average)

And that's only the immediate profit. Pretty often he'll be on some kind of draw (gut-shot, flush, OESD, if he's behind with any of these draws the bet is for value.)

To count the breakeven point (for the immediate profit) for this bet:
1/(4.7+1)= 17.54%

I think he'll fold far more than 17.54% which means this bet is a must.


[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting, Nick...

Two questions:

1. What about the pot odds? Do you just forget about them in this instance?

2. Where did that stat come from...i.e. MP1 folds 18% of the time in this situation?

Thanx.

[Dead]

How can you check-fold the flop last to act?

You played it fine.

Nice hand.

[tytygoodnuts]

Check the turn. Don't try to muscle an .25/.50 LP out of a pot. I have been in this situation before, it just doesn't work. Taking a free card is much more profitable.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
1. What about the pot odds? Do you just forget about them in this instance?

[/ QUOTE ]
First of all I'm not at all sure I'm behind and drawing on this turn. Many players call a small bet just to see if they might hit the turn and then fold to the bigger turn bet. A bet might even fold a low pair since he could think you're holding a K/PP b/c of the preflop raise. In this case where I'm confronted with decision "bet or check" rather then "call or fold" I don't have to consider my drawing odds or pot odds. What we need to evaluate to know if a turn bet is right or wrong is if villain will fold enough to make it profitable. In this hand (as shown in the previous post) the chance of him folding only have to be ~18% for hero to make a immediate profit. If I get called I'll check behind on the river and will still win pretty often since villain might have been playing a draw.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Where did that stat come from...i.e. MP1 folds 18% of the time in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
As I explained we'll gain if we bet this turn and our opponent folds 18% of the time. If I was to estimate how often MP3 actually fold on this I'd say about 30%.

[thesharpie]

I like betting the turn as 1) You might be ahead 2) He might fold 3) You'll probably get to see the showdown for free. He might try a bluff on the river with a busted draw if you check the turn, and you can't call it. If you always bet the flop and take a free card on the turn when you miss, observant players might try bluffing the end.