Hand that busted me out of World Poker Tour, San Jose

[MrLob]

Pretty crapped out about this hand. Any and all comments (good or bad) would be much appreciated.

SJ WPT event yesterday. I have used a relatively tight strategy to work my stack up to a little over 30K which is average.

I'm proud that I've been holding my own against a very tough table. Seat 1 Billy (older gentlemen, cant remember his last name but seen him on TV several times), Seat 2 Eric Seidel, Seat 3 Josh Arieh, Seat 4 Chris Karagullyan (past WPT champ), Seat 5 Random, Seat 6 Ramdom, Seat 7 Randy "Dream Crusher" Jensen, Seat 8 Me. Randy Jensen and Billy are chip leaders with around 80k each. Randy has been playing every other hand and gambling it up. Billy has shown down the pure nuts for an hour and a half building his stack from 10K. He has started to raise and reraise people out of several pots and appears to be using his new stack to bully people.

Blinds 300-600, 75 ante. Passed to Randy in the cutoff who raises to $1800. I call on the Button with 5,5 looking to get a lucky flop. Billy calls from the SB. Seidel folds the BB. Flop comes Q,9,5 rainbow. Bingo, I'm doing the internal two step. Billy checks, Randy checks. I think about checking, but feel J,10 is a real possibility for either of their hands and bet 3000 to at least make them pay something to draw (pot is around 6,500). Billy calls, Randy folds. Billy's call led me to believe he had a pair, but more likely the J 10 draw. I decided that unless a K or 8 fell on the turn I was going to "end" hand. Turn came 7. I fiered a pot sized bet in. Billy reraised all in. CRAP! My initial thought was that he hit a gut shot. Then I reasoned that he likely would not have drawn that thin against me. Maybe 2 pair, maybe AQ, maybe trip 6's in which case I'm in big trouble. I decide trip 6's is highly unlikely based on his previous play. I've got most of his potential hands smoked, and I've got 10 outs if he hit the gut shot. If I fold I'm alive but not in very good shape with only around 14K. If I call and win, I'm up in the top 5-10 chip leaders. I call. He shows straight. River's a blank. I go home.

I think my flop bet of 3,000 was a mistake. I rushed it and miscalculated the size of the pot. In hindsight I think it should have been around $5000. Is this Monday morning quarterbacking or does everyone agree? Regarding the rest of the hand. Does anyone or everyone fold this hand? or does the call seem proper.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks

[willie]

i bet about 4000 on the turn and go broke on what looks like a brick on the turn when checked too.

[sdplayerb]

Yes, your bet was too small.
Your analysis no it was correct.
I probably would have bet more like 4K, but I'm definitely betting more than half the pot.
He still got very lucky, that sucks.

SD

[nuclear500]

Big stack felt like gambling, not much you can do except push the flop.

[burningyen]

I assume you meant trip 7s?

[betgo]

On the turn, you are pot committed to call the push. The only hands that are ahead of you are higher sets and 86s for a straight, which is I guess what Billy had.

If you knew your opponent had a gutshot and you knew he would hit it on the turn, then you definately should have made a larger bet on the flop. In general, I don't know whether it is a good idea to push with sets so that someone can't draw out on you with a gutshot.

Just because you busted out doesn't mean you misplayed the hand.

[2005]

Pushing the flop is ridiculous. If you bet 4500 on the flop you win the pot. He called 3000 because if he hits he gets the whole stack and has very little risk to his stack. These are the types of calls that experienced, very good players make that help build stacks. I'll post the rest of my thoughts in a different post.

Gavin

[2005]

Here's my .02. I think cold calling preflop was your biggest mistake. Randy will open with such a wide range of hands that I think 55 on the button is way too much hand to let Randy see a cheap flop mostly because you can never know exactly where he is at. I think you need to make it 6500 for this and another reason... Do you really want to be sandwiched inbetween these 2 huge stacks in a pot. I'm sure Billy(Baxter I'm presuming?) was looking to play pots with Randy as I would be with that many chips and him to my right. Ok, let's say you call. Now that the flop comes down and it's checked to you, I think your bet is a little small. I think 4000 or 4500 is about right. You want his 68 to call now b/c he's not getting the right odds. Once the turn comes, you go broke.

Gavin

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing the flop is ridiculous. If you bet 4500 on the flop you win the pot. He called 3000 because if he hits he gets the whole stack and has very little risk to his stack. These are the types of calls that experienced, very good players make that help build stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see or hear about pros making those calls all the time, but the EV of that call depends on two things: that the bettor won't lay down to a raise when the 7 hits, and that he won't have a big redraw, because if he does his chip EV sucks. (I'm leaving out the hands where the turn is a 6 and the pro deludes himself into another 3-4K pot odds call.)

I really, really, really just don't get these types of calls. I would understand them more if they were bluff calls; OK, if you're putting him on a weak Q and plan to raise any turn it makes sense. If you're planning to raise any K, 8, or 7 and fold the rest, it makes even more sense. But to chase the 7 by itself just doesn't work for me.

[MLG]

what if your plan was to lead the turn when you miss? The hand appears to be a loose open raise, button call, BB call. On the flop its checked to the button who bets. Seems to me if I'm the BB this call is as much a call to bluff the turn from a guy who very well might be just trying to pick up the pot. So, I might call here in order to lead at the turn with any 2, especially as the big stack.

[Prime Time]

Gavin,
I have to disagree; my feeling is that the pre-flop call is fine for set value.
Once the set is hit, and it is checked to the button, I think the 3K bet is fine.
You want the 86 drawing thin or else you won’t make any implied value if you blow him out of the water with a larger bet.
Yes he made a bad call and got lucky. But that’s how it goes, or is it cards happen?

Pete

[2005]

I should have mentioned in the post that I like his call better if he has position because when Hero checks the turn with QJ or some such, it becomes easier to steal the pot from him. I think alot of the EV that is included in this call is your bluff equity like you said. And, if hero happens to have a monster, you will get paid if you hit.

Gavin

[MrLob]

Mistyped, it was actually a 6 that hit the turn. Same result as he was drawing to gutshot.

[2005]

Implied value? The only way you get serious action is if he makes a better hand right? If you get him to call 4k or 4500 with 68 even better.

As for playing for set value... Randy is way too active to see cheap flops with him especially when he has a big stack because he will put pressure on you. Ok, let's say this. Flop comes 832, Billy checks, Randy bets, now what do you do?

Gavin

[MrLob]

Thanks Gavin.
It was Baxtor. My reasoning for calling was that I figured I'd see a cheap flop and probably get a lot of bluffing money (Billy into Randy) if I hit. If I didn't hit I was done. I thought about the fact of being sandwiched between the 2 but figured it would be an easy hand to get away from if the flop missed and looked bad. Randy was refusing to be reraised out of pots. I thought about raising but was very leary of raising, Randy calling, and then Randy leading into me on the flop. Figured seeing it cheap was better considering I was happy with my stack and we only had about a half hour left on day one.
Thanks again for the insight.

[Prime Time]

No set, no bet keeps you out of trouble.
But it would have to be read dependent on what you thought the probe bet ment. Like the fold, but again, seen you keep after it w/ 22 and succeed. Had to be read dependent, rite?

[2005]

ok Pete, we'll agree to disagree here. I think no set, no bet is a little weak against Randy, he will eat you up.

Gavin

[sdplayerb]

plus if you do hit, you don't know you will get paid since he is so loose aggressive. You may pickup another 4K or so, but then you aren't really get your implied odds.
So to risk 6% of your stack when you are very unlikely to double through is a somewhat inferior play to reraising a player that is very likely behind.
And if he does have a hand, you can still get away from it without getting hurt bad due to being 50x the BB.

One question though Gavin, as I haven't played with Randy, due to his stack size is he likely to put a player on a resteal and use his huge stack here?
That would be one major worry I would have.

SD

[MrLob]

It was a major worry I had. I was also worried that he would call the reraise and then lead into me on the flop which put me nowhere if I missed.

[sdplayerb]

Yeah, that all makes it very tough.
I can't fully decide between making it 5K and just flat calling to keep the pot small and have position (i wouldn't really be doing it for set value).
It is one of those had to be there situations where how he and you have been playing would be a factor in the decision.
One such factor is how much he has been calling reraises. If a lot, you can't raise there.
Without all this info, I guess i would now go with call.

[sdplayerb]

I hadn't read this before.
I think you only mistake was not betting more on the flop. But I only would have bet 1K more.

[Brad F.]

I don't really think by the sound of things that Randy would've laid down to a 4000 or 5000 bet here. Maybe he would I guess, but if he puts you on a steal even 25% of the time, he'll be reraising or calling because of it. Pushing the flop is a bad move in most cases, as all you get is what's already in the pot. In this case, being results oriented, pushing wins you the pot but at the point in time, not knowing what he's holding (anywhere from one pair, to two pair, to nothing really), I'm happy to bet 3000 and extract some chips. I want him calling here, given that he'd raise with any two.

This is probably a huge flaw in my game, but so many times I read posts about how 'I should've bet more so he couldn't draw to hit his hand.' I mean, we do want people to misplay their hands, calling without odds to call, but don't we want to keep players in the hand that only have 4 outs, with two chances to hit it?

Or should we be forcing out the draws, happy to just win pots even when we are 70 percent favorties?

In this case I'd check on the flop, and probably go broke afterwards. And against your opponent, it seems like he calls anything but a large overbet on the flop, and even then you are in a perfect steal position when it's checked to you, so he might read it as a steal no matter what you are betting.

I don't see how I'd really get away from this hand, and I don't think more than 4-5% of players out there would have a specific enough read on the turn to fold.

A raise PF might've gotten billy out of the hand, but probably not unless it's a reraise to like 5k. He's getting too good of odds to lay down with a huge stack otherwise.

I liked your play, I don't really see how I would've played it much differently, I probably would've been worse with trying to slow-play it even more.

Way to hold up against that table though, some good names.

Brad

[diddle]

uhh you played it fine. bet 4000 if you want instead of 3000 but that's really nitpicking

Did this Billy have a gray mustache, big glasses, and 300lbs of girth? If so he loves pushing people around with crap and making mathematically stupid plays.

http://www.lugz.com/timeline/subevent/2004/img/Holiday04-Full_Page.jpg

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
No set, no bet keeps you out of trouble.


[/ QUOTE ]

Worked like a charm here.

[MrLob]

Name's Billy Baxtor and he fits that discription. Unfortunatle his bad math busted me and put him as the huge day one chip leader.

[betgo]

I agree. You are not that eager to make your opponent fold. It was 10-1 against his hitting the gutshot. If he missed, he would have folded to your pot sized bet on the turn and you would have had an extra 3000. As you say, he could have a smaller made hand, in which case you definately want him to come along.

I like to lead out small with a set, unless I think my opponent has something, in which case I might lead out big. You want to build the pot, make people pay to beat you, and not do anything unusual so that they can tell you don't have top pair, a draw or something.

I haven't played at that level, but I have found that in larger buyin tournaments, you generally want to make decent sized bets so that people have to pay to beat you. In lower buyin, a bunch of fish will limp in, they will call your raise, and call a half pot bet on the flop. You may get into the habit of trying to milk players for those small bets. At a higher buyin, if someone calls they call for a reason.

[2005]

Yes, that's a definite possibility. However, Randy, while he's not the best player in the world, is at least somewhat observan, so if you've been playing tight, he's not going to be all that interested in getting involved.

Gavin

[2005]

Perhaps this is nitpicking, but hearing you confirm that description, you were against Billy Duarte.

Gavin

[MrLob]

No it was Billy Baxtor. His discription was a little off but this Billy Baxtor had grey hair, was wearing glasses, and was defineitely on the heavy side. Guess that's why police always question the validity of "eye witnesses."

[2005]

yeah, I just saw the chip positions, Billy Baxter it is.

Gavin