View Full Version : JJ, paired board, ace falls on turn
Should I have called this?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (10.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, UTG+2 calls.
Turn: (7.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero folds.
Final Pot: 8.25 BB
Angrymoog
03-08-2005, 04:22 AM
He doesnt look to be afraid of the fact that you raised preflop and on the flop.
Id probably fold this.
That's the way I saw it too...
Cheers.
wax311
03-08-2005, 04:28 AM
To show down, you'll most likely have to call the turn bet and one more bet on the river. The final pot will be 10BB. That's 2BB/10BB = 20%.
If you're behind, you're drawing to two outs. that's a 2/46 chance of drawing = a few percent.
You need to be 20 + a few percent sure you're ahead to call.
Given the fact that preflop was 3-bet, your opponent is very likely to have an ace here, even though he was not the 3-better. I say fold here. If you have any reads on UTG+2 your judgement would be better. If he bluffs at all, I'd call down.
If you're calculating both the turn and the river like you are regarding 2BB to see it, you've got a little over a 1 in 10 chance of spiking a J. And I think you meant 20- a little.
Thanks mate, good advice, much appreciated.
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If you're calculating both the turn and the river like you are regarding 2BB to see it, you've got a little over a 1 in 10 chance of spiking a J. And I think you meant 20- a little.
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Hmm, his advice sounds spot on to me. He's pretty much saying I don't have the odds to draw if I'm behind. So I have to be confident I am ahead more than 20% of the time to call the turn and river.
Isn't this correct?
wax311
03-08-2005, 04:42 AM
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If you're calculating both the turn and the river like you are regarding 2BB to see it, you've got a little over a 1 in 10 chance of spiking a J. And I think you meant 20- a little.
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Actually I'm calculating odds on the turn, but only the river card is left at the time of decision. That makes it a single-street draw of 2Js/46 cards left.
But I do stand corrected - I meant 20 minus a little % sure.
the 20% is correct. He was just adding in the possibility of you spiking your set on the river, 1 in 20.something. I wasn't thinking about the board since the turn was out. What I meant was, you need to know you're good 15% of the time, because 5% of the time that you're not good you'll spike a J on the river, and 20% is break-even.
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the 20% is correct. He was just adding in the possibility of you spiking your set on the river, 1 in 20.something. I wasn't thinking about the board since the turn was out. What I meant was, you need to know you're good 15% of the time, because 5% of the time that you're not good you'll spike a J on the river, and 20% is break-even.
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aahh, I understand you now! (And totally hadn't thought of that) I still have a lot to learn. Thanks.
So if you only need to be ahead 15% of the time... without any sort of read on the player, how often do you think you would have villian beat? Given his actions... less than 10%?
wax311
03-08-2005, 04:51 AM
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If you're calculating both the turn and the river like you are regarding 2BB to see it, you've got a little over a 1 in 10 chance of spiking a J. And I think you meant 20- a little.
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Hmm, his advice sounds spot on to me. He's pretty much saying I don't have the odds to draw if I'm behind. So I have to be confident I am ahead more than 20% of the time to call the turn and river.
Isn't this correct?
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I actually made a mistake. You need 20% odds to call. You'll hit a jack on the river 4% of the time. Therefor, you need to be 16% sure you're ahead or more to call. But to round it off and so it's profitable, I'd just stick with being 20% sure or more.
The only way to estimate the chances of you being ahead are to play a lot and observe your opponent's tendancies. Without knowing anything about your opponent, your average player will probably have you beat more than 20% of the time from observing his betting. However, if you had a read on your opponent that he bluffs frequently, you can call. If you have a read that he is passive and will not bet without top pair or better, you can definately fold.
Sounds good. Thanks again.
I really don't know in the hand whether you're good or not. If he's passive, I fold, especially if he's passive preflop. If you've seen behavior where he'll limp with AK or AQ, which isn't uncommon, it's a very easy fold. Reads would really help, but I'm folding this on the turn with none.
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