Letter to David Sklansky

[MagnoliasFM]

Hi David,

Have you ever thought about the chance of there being more to life than book sales? It seems like all you do is geared towards making more book sale profits. Have you ever thought about your spiritual life? I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God. In fact, if you don't, the EV lost will exceed all the poker and book sale profits that you could ever make in a thousand lifetimes.

And by the way, in your hypothetical heads-up question, B is wrong. You said to assume that you are a multi-billionaire and not worried about the money, implying a near-infinite bankroll. It was also implied that your opponent started with 1 billion dollars. If you were a multi-billionaire with a knowledge of game theory you would take far worse advantages than KK vs. K2 because if you have many many more times what your opponent has, you can afford to call his bets with worse than KK vs. K2 and still have an approaching 0% chance of not getting all his money eventually. If you had, say, 1,000,000,000,000,000 dollars, waiting for KK vs. K2, while being one of the winning strategies possible, is certainly not the only statistically guaranteed winning strategy. With a chip lead that big, it might be correct (from a winning is all that matters standpoint) to call in a multitude of situations. Taken to an extreme, if you had an infinite bankroll, you could just call him forever and eventually at one moment in time you would have all his money. If you factor in time, there is no way that waiting for the best possible matchup to put your money in is correct.

This is not meant as a criticism of you or an insult, but I think that a lot of 2+2ers along with myself are a little disappointed in how you have handled yourself since winning a couple of matches against the world's best poker players. It is understandable that wins like this can cause a man to feel very proud of himself, but I think you have gone too far when you insulted another poster's intelligence in this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1878527&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=&vc=1) post. I've read your books and respect your intellect, but seeing as how you are a role model for many poker players out there, I would like you a lot more if you didn't make posts like that. I understand that you make book money by having people debate about you and whether you are good or not, and a lot of your posts are meant to perpetuate that debate, but, there is a good chance that there is more to life than book sales.

-Random 2+2 newbie with an average intelligence

[David Sklansky]

I didn't insult his intelligence. He made a fallacious statement about a concept that many people are confused about and I told him off in a joking way.

Your comment about the billion dollar freezeout shows you didn't read the question carefully.

If there is a God, he is like me. He doesn't want you to merely believe in him. He wants you to appreciate his stuff. I don't like it when a fawning fan says they saw me on TV unless they also talk about the inticacies of my check raise. God doesn't like it if you haven't spent some time marveling how relativity and DNA serve to make the universe wht it is. A fawning fan who merly believes in him but doesn't take the time to study physics and chemistry at all disgusts him. The atheist who does study that stuff will upon death, be surprised if he encounters God, but God will more likely want him around than the bimbo who doesn't truly appreciate him.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't insult his intelligence. He made a fallacious statement about a concept that many people are confused about and I told him off in a joking way.

Your comment about the billion dollar freezeout shows you didn't read the question carefully.

If there is a God, he is like me. He doesn't want you to merely believe in him. He wants you to appreciate his stuff. I don't like it when a fawning fan says they saw me on TV unless they also talk about the inticacies of my check raise. God doesn't like it if you haven't spent some time marveling how relativity and DNA serve to make the universe wht it is. A fawning fan who merly believes in him but doesn't take the time to study physics and chemistry at all disgusts him. The atheist who does study that stuff will upon death, be surprised if he encounters God, but God will more likely want him around than the bimbo who doesn't truly appreciate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect, I think you're underestimating the appeal of bimbos.

[TStoneMBD]

Your post is terrible.

1) DS plays poker for money. Book sales equate to money. This is his job. It is not your business to determine whether DS is leading a moral life, or a happy life, or a life that lives up to your expectations.

2) Believing in God doesn't necessarily put you in heaven. According to Christian beliefs, its about giving your life over to Christ. Giving your life over to Christ may not be worth the .000001% EV that you mention.

That is what you get for bringing up religion, a bunch of religious debates. Way to go.

3) It's right to fold AA there. We are exclusively looking at a +EV situation, without considering other effects outside of the poker game. Why do you bring this up here? Post your thoughts with everyone else in the correct thread.

4) Personally, I wish that DS would point out incorrect theory more often when a person's logic is flawed. It's how we grow as poker players, and that's what we are here for. I also noticed this flawed thinking in the newbie's post, but didn't bring it up because I didn't think it was all that important. Regardless, DS did and I'm glad he brought it up.

[Brainwalter]

[ QUOTE ]
If you were a multi-billionaire with a knowledge of game theory you would take far worse advantages than KK vs. K2 because if you have many many more times what your opponent has, you can afford to call his bets with worse than KK vs. K2 and still have an approaching 0% chance of not getting all his money eventually.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a freezeout. One losing all-in call and the opportunity for future wagers is gone.

[Brainwalter]

[ QUOTE ]
Your post is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

(To OP, not MBD)

[kmvenne]

I'm dissapointed that I can't apply for some sort of twoplustwo goon squad now. I would have swore it was El Diablo's sidejob. Surly the man needs breaks from +EV plays to act out his persona.

Nice post David. Anyone that can make me think long and hard and then make me laugh later deserves the respect, accolades, and money they get. Your viewpoints cause me to reconsider a great many things, both trivial and large, and that is easily adds great value to life.

[kurosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't insult his intelligence. He made a fallacious statement about a concept that many people are confused about and I told him off in a joking way.

Your comment about the billion dollar freezeout shows you didn't read the question carefully.

If there is a God, he is like me. He doesn't want you to merely believe in him. He wants you to appreciate his stuff. I don't like it when a fawning fan says they saw me on TV unless they also talk about the inticacies of my check raise. God doesn't like it if you haven't spent some time marveling how relativity and DNA serve to make the universe wht it is. A fawning fan who merly believes in him but doesn't take the time to study physics and chemistry at all disgusts him. The atheist who does study that stuff will upon death, be surprised if he encounters God, but God will more likely want him around than the bimbo who doesn't truly appreciate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

David = God?

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God. In fact, if you don't, the EV lost will exceed all the poker and book sale profits that you could ever make in a thousand lifetimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Homer: And what if we picked the wrong religion? Every week, we're just making God madder and madder!
Episode: Homer the Heretic

[Ianco15]

Im confused, so Magnolias wants DS to stop selling books?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
If there is a God, he is like me.

[/ QUOTE ]
--David Sklansky

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm dissapointed that I can't apply for some sort of twoplustwo goon squad now.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post all around, humorous and intelligent... post more

[Jake (The Snake)]

there are plenty of problems with pascal's wager and DS has pointed some of them out... read about it.

[Ianco15]

I am aware of the problems and I read DS's post. I was just restating how ridiculous it sounds.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever thought about the chance of there being more to life than book sales? It seems like all you do is geared towards making more book sale profits. Have you ever thought about your spiritual life? I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God. In fact, if you don't, the EV lost will exceed all the poker and book sale profits that you could ever make in a thousand lifetimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bro,

You need to be smoking some better stuff, come to BC and I'll hook ya up mmmkay?

Lawrence

[BreakEvenPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think after about 200 years, eternal life would be hell no matter where you are spending it, so the 0.0000000001% possibility is pretty irrelevant.

[Bigdaddydvo]

[ QUOTE ]
If there is a God, he is like me. He doesn't want you to merely believe in him. He wants you to appreciate his stuff. I don't like it when a fawning fan says they saw me on TV unless they also talk about the inticacies of my check raise. God doesn't like it if you haven't spent some time marveling how relativity and DNA serve to make the universe wht it is. A fawning fan who merly believes in him but doesn't take the time to study physics and chemistry at all disgusts him. The atheist who does study that stuff will upon death, be surprised if he encounters God, but God will more likely want him around than the bimbo who doesn't truly appreciate him.


[/ QUOTE ]

(Rhetorical) Would Roger Clemens deny a fan an autograph if he or she couldn't cite the exact circumstances when the Infield Fly Rule applies?

David, my response to this statement requres that, for the duration of this post, we assume that a Christian God exists.

I argue that Love of God supersedes appreciation for His work and His creation. I concede that appreciation for His work is a natural progression of loving God and such appreciation certainly complements love, but I hardly think it's a requirement. If you carefully study the history of the Church, you'll notice wide variance of intellectual capacity and earthly accoumplishments within the group that have been selected for Sainthood. For every St Thomas Aquainus or St Augustine (Doctors of the early Church whose writings, teachings, and theories still impact modern Church thought), you have dozens of St. Bernadettes, poor, uneducated, illiterate, intellectually inferior who had NOTHING to offer God except their complete devotion and love. If the Bimbo truly loves God with all her heart, I don't expect Him to ask for much more. After all, when the Angel Gabriel visited a 16 year old illiterate Jewish girl 2,000 years ago, he announced "Hail, Mary, full of grace!!" not "Hail, Mary, whose intellectual capacity enables her to select a Pareto Efficient outcome every time!"

Love of God is paramount. The rest is gravy.

[eurythmech]

[ QUOTE ]
After all, when the Angel Gabriel visited a 16 year old illiterate Jewish girl 2,000 years ago, he announced "Hail, Mary, full of grace!!" not "Hail, Mary, whose intellectual capacity enables her to select a Pareto Efficient outcome every time!"

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe that's because an intelligent girl wouldn't believe for the world that people would actually believe her if she said she hadn't had sex even though she gave birth to a child...

[WillMagic]

Really?

I mean, for instance, say you were God. You've got millions of people around you in heaven, worshipping you, telling you you are the coolest, NOT TO MENTION all the people on earth constantly telling you how great you are, how much you mean to them, and thank you so much for everything you've given us, and on occasion a you get a request for smiting infidels or a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle baseball card. I mean...God could have extraordinary patience, but I doubt even the almighty could have infinite patience, and he'd certainly want to have an interesting conversation once in a while, and actually have a back and forth about this whole universe he created. Thus the idea that he'd surround himself with people who would say, "You know, that whole evolution thing was really a masterstroke." "REALLY? NO ONE EVER COMPLIMENTED ME ON THAT BEFORE! I'M SO GLAD YOU NOTICED! DID YOU KNOW THAT I CREATED THE GALAPAGOS JUST TO GIVE YOU GUYS A HINT?"

I have a friend who is muslim, and I was staying with him in a hotel once, and he did his prayers five times a day like all good muslims do. But it got me to thinking...there are millions of muslims in the world, most of them praying five times a day. Wouldn't you think God would just think "Ok, great, thanks guys, you all are cool, great, thanks, great, WILL YOU LEAVE ME ALONE PLEASE. FOR TEN MINUTES. GO LIVE YOUR LIVES. I MEAN, CHRIST, I GAVE YOU YOUR LIVES TO LIVE, NOT TO SPEND THANKING ME FOR SAID LIVES. ONE THANK YOU A DAY IS PLENTY.

Will

[mungpo]

[ QUOTE ]


Have you ever thought about your spiritual life? I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God.



[/ QUOTE ]

If believing in an almighty creator is what you consider the most important thing in life, then I think you are seriously misguided.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're underestimating the appeal of bimbos.

[/ QUOTE ]


Seldom do I find myself outright disagreeing with a mindset that David has, but his comment here shows a fundamental misconception about bimbos and their aforementioned appeal.

In related news, I really was hoping for yet another thread where those that believed in God fought those that didn't and vice-versa as if either side was going to do anything but waste time trying to discuss the subject with the other.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If there is a God, he is like me.

[/ QUOTE ]
--David Sklansky

[/ QUOTE ]

I stared at this quote for about 3 minutes.

Wow.

[sexypanda]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If there is a God, he is like me.

[/ QUOTE ]
--David Sklansky

[/ QUOTE ]

I stared at this quote for about 3 minutes.

Wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not forget, God was created in man's image, not vice-versa. That statement rings very true, perhaps unintentionally.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God. In fact, if you don't, the EV lost will exceed all the poker and book sale profits that you could ever make in a thousand lifetimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I stared at this quote for about 3 minutes.

Wow.

The only difference between you and an athiest is that he believes in one less God than you. I think the above statement sums up many issues I have with religion. Mainly, its promotion of ignorance.

[burningyen]

It's 2005 and people are still citing Pascal's wager. We are doomed.

[Voltron87]

MagnoliasFM is also 17 years old. What now?

[andyfox]

At the risk of fawning, great stuff here, David, and also in your answer to Daniel.

"If there is a God, he is like me."

One is reminded of John Houseman's remark about Orson Welles: "There, but for the grace of God, goes God."

Signed,
A fawning bimbo

[Daliman]

You, sir,(ma'am?), have a lot to learn.

Luckily, you are in the right place.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
(Rhetorical) Would Roger Clemens deny a fan an autograph if he or she couldn't cite the exact circumstances when the Infield Fly Rule applies?


[/ QUOTE ]

I know you said "rhetorical", but I think the point is that David and Roger would both sign an autograph if asked, but neither would be particularly enamored with the requestor unless they showed understanding of why they were fans. Why should they be? (rhetorical /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]

If there is a God, he is like me.

[/ QUOTE ]

there it is.

fim

[tek]

[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of fawning, great stuff here, David, and also in your answer to Daniel.

"If there is a God, he is like me."

One is reminded of John Houseman's remark about Orson Welles: "There, but for the grace of God, goes God."

Signed,
A fawning bimbo

[/ QUOTE ]


The irony of Houseman's remark is he played god in the Paper Chase... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[BK_]

not enough people are appreciating the humor in davids post

[valenzuela]

David being a good poker theorist and beating two world class players( and losing to another)DOES NOT MAKE YOU A THEOLOGIST!!!!.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
The atheist who does study that stuff will upon death, be surprised if he encounters God, but God will more likely want him around than the bimbo who doesn't truly appreciate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a practicing Roman Catholic and I think good theology actually supports this statement. Karl Rahner (Catholic), Martin Buber (Jewish) and Soren Kierkegard (Protestant) would all agree with this as well.

[valenzuela]

Personally Im agnostic and I go to a roman catholic school, and the catholic god is supposed to forgive and forgive anyway, so he wouldnt care if u dont apreciate him enough.

[MicroBob]

I didn't read the other threads alluded to by David and Magnolia and also didn't read the rest of this thread either (so it may have been covered already)...however I wanted to comment on this aspect:


[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure that being the math whiz you are, you see why if there is only a 0.0000001% chance of there being an eternal life after death, it is hugely +EV to believe in God.

[/ QUOTE ]


If you truly think there is only a 0.0000001% chance in God (or eternal life after death or whatever) than you can't 'believe' in God.

Do you see why?
and it's not even close.

thank you.

[theRealMacoy]

Nice one David!

Jesus freaks scare the hell out of me. When did you get so funny?

Cheers,
the Real Macoy

[Slacker13]

[ QUOTE ]
The atheist who does study that stuff will upon death, be surprised if he encounters God, but God will more likely want him around than the bimbo who doesn't truly appreciate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's great stuff. Do you mind if I borrow that?

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
DOES NOT MAKE YOU A THEOLOGIST!!!!.


[/ QUOTE ]


How true this is. To be a 'Theologist' requires:

1. A total disregard of logic.

2. A colossal disingenuous that shines bright than 100 million suns.

3. A monolithic self-deception that at least equals that of Thomas Aquinas.

4. Being a moralistic busybody.

5. Being a worshipper of ignorance.

6. Enjoy and believe (or pretend to believe) all the metaphysical hooey dressed up in gaudy and tinsel-draped language for all the half-wits of the world to gape at and swallow whole.

Feel free to add to this list.

[ QUOTE ]
Theology: An effort to explain the unknowable by putting it into terms of the not worth knowing. - H.L. Mencken


[/ QUOTE ]

-Zeno

[Derek in NYC]

David your non-poker posts never cease to amaze me. Please stick to writing about poker, not about life. You have taught me a lot about poker, but nothing about life. (I have not, for this very reason, bought Poker Gaming and Life, as I dont think you have much to offer on 1 of 3 of those subjects.)

Someday you will die, just as I will die. As your last breath leaves your body and your consciousness flickers, I hope that you will be able to look back on your life and feel that you have accomplished more than getting to #88 on the Amazon best seller chart, beaten Phil Ivey in a freezeout, and had your balls endlessly licked by the anonymous posters here on the zoo. I hope you can look back on your life and see a loving circle of family and friends, who will miss you when you are gone.

By the way, for as bright as you are (far brighter than me), you should know that you are not as bright as you think. Your math skills do not warrant the Fields medal. Your analytics cannot hold a candle to somebody like Kenneth Arrow. For the love of god, please stop mentioning yourself in the same breath as Einstein, Richard Feynman, Mozart, and Da Vinci. You write poker books and play high limit poker. Your life's work is utterly trivial.

Thank you for your time. Now I need to go back and study the chapter on semibluffing in TOP.

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
If there is a God, He is like me.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nit-picking, but better.


Clealy, your best post yet.

And I agree, if there is a God, He is like me.

-Zeno

[bholdr]

...don't understand god.

and neither do i, in any way, shape or form. I'm O.K. with that.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DOES NOT MAKE YOU A THEOLOGIST!!!!.


[/ QUOTE ]


How true this is. To be a 'Theologist' requires:

1. A total disregard of logic.

2. A colossal disingenuous that shines bright than 100 million suns.

3. A monolithic self-deception that at least equals that of Thomas Aquinas.

4. Being a moralistic busybody.

5. Being a worshipper of ignorance.

6. Enjoy and believe (or pretend to believe) all the metaphysical hooey dressed up in gaudy and tinsel-draped language for all the half-wits of the world to gape at and swallow whole.

Feel free to add to this list.

[ QUOTE ]
Theology: An effort to explain the unknowable by putting it into terms of the not worth knowing. - H.L. Mencken


[/ QUOTE ]

-Zeno

[/ QUOTE ]

Actual definition:

n : someone who is learned in theology or who speculates about theology (especially Christian theology)

Therefore none of your criteria fit. Nice try though. Actually it wasn't even close to a nice try.

[NotReady]

[ QUOTE ]
1. A total disregard of logic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pap.

[RacersEdge]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If there is a God, he is like me.

[/ QUOTE ]
--David Sklansky

[/ QUOTE ]

I stared at this quote for about 3 minutes.

Wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is amazing. Obviously this guy should stick to math and poker.

[Danenania]

Your EV argument for belief in God is badly flawed. What if God does exist but he sends all earthlings who believe in him to hell for eternal torture? This is just as likely an outcome as the Christian predictions based on what humans know about afterlife (nothing). Since all afterlife outcomes are equally likely both theism and atheism have neutral EVs.

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
If you truly think there is only a 0.0000001% chance in God (or eternal life after death or whatever) than you can't 'believe' in God. Do you see why?
And it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

In purely EV terms, you have always higher EV believing in God than otherwise. Pascal has already showed this, some years ago.

And it wasn't even close.

[tomdemaine]

I think I'd prefer to believe that if there is a god then S/He can't be tricked quite so easily be cynical people trying to maximise their EV by apportioning a token amount of "belief". I'm a confirmed atheist by the way for the same reason. I don't want to believe in a God who would have me a a believer /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Poolgod32]

Always interesting when someone begins the age old debate of is there or isnt there a God. I wonder if reading anymore of this thread would be +EV. Nah!

[jakethebake]

Congratulations! Worst troll ever!!!