Unusual hand reading exercise (experiment/survey)

[Aaron W.]

The read on MP2 is that there's nothing special about him. He's not super-anything, just a middle of the road fish.

[Yes, I do believe that these questions are moderately answerable... but I might be proven wrong]

Micro Poker Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is LP with x /images/graemlins/spade.gif x /images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) x /images/graemlins/diamond.gif x /images/graemlins/spade.gif x /images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> (Not a paired board)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero...

What sort of lines are you considering at this point? (Hero is being rational about his preflop raise and his flop raise.)

Also...

[Dead]

I say TP good Kicker for Mp2. Maybe he has KQ and you have AK. I cap the flop.

[Shillx]

Wow very interesting, I have no idea what he has...

Brad<font color="white">Two pair or better.</font>

[wax311]

In general, I'd probably say two pair or better. I've noticed that half of the middle-of-the-road players slowplay two pair or better, half are willing to 3-bet or cap. I'd say the average player, being passive and somewhat cautious, will not 3-bet top pair. Also, most fish aren't the gambling types - they won't 3-bet with a strong draw.

As a side note, where's the box for too little information? Not on the player, but on the CARDS? I think this scenario varies greatly on the cards, so I find this generalizing rather useless.

[deepsquat]

I put him on a diamond draw, i have seen these played very aggressively at micros lately.

[Vern]

I don't care what he has man, you hit FIVE OF A KIND on the FLOP! WHOOT!

Back to reality, if my two spades are overcards or have any kind of other draw besides the backdoor, I call his raise, pot is too big but I am not putting another bet into the pot after that without a strong draw on the turn or at least top pair, decent kicker or better. MP2 could easily be on a diamond draw, but that is unusual for middle of the road to bet/pump a flush draw so I think he has two pair or a set. A better player I would suspect as little as top pair weak kicker, hoping I raised to thin the field, but since that didn't work and he re-raises you, I start to suspect two pair or set.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[jskills]

The whole idea of a poll where you're guessing your opponent's hand and "you may only guess one" is kind of flawed by its nature no? Isn't the idea to put your opponent on a range of hands, not just lock in on one?

Given your description of the opponent, he would likely have two pair or a set. A strong flush draw would make sense for a non-passive opponent.

In terms of your line, it would be nice to know what you held and what the real values of the board is here to give you a more definitive answer.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do believe that these questions are moderately answerable

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't.

If flop is:

2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I think he's likely to hold an overpair/set.

J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
He's pretty likely to bet 2 pair (not likely he has an overpair)

J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Straight or 2 pair. (not likely he has an overpair)

Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
76/images/graemlins/diamond.gif? 77?

This could go on forever and in all scenarios the probability for him holding TP/set/flushdraw etc varies. It's impossible to answer a question like this IMO. But the middle fish isn't very likely to pump a draw and isn't very aggressive postflop so betting less than top pair wouldn't be very likely either. I think the texture of the board defines if overpair, TPGK or 2 pair is most likely.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole idea of a poll where you're guessing your opponent's hand and "you may only guess one" is kind of flawed by its nature no? Isn't the idea to put your opponent on a range of hands, not just lock in on one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you should be putting him on a range of hands and not lock onto one. But the phrasing is 'most likely'. I'm not saying that you must narrow him down to a specific hand, but most people have some intuitive weighting they assign to each possibility.

[SlantNGo]

There are always 2 ranges of hands I put my opponent on... those that are better than mine and those that are worse than mine /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't the idea to put your opponent on a range of hands, not just lock in on one?

[/ QUOTE ]

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The whole idea of a poll where you're guessing your opponent's hand and "you may only guess one" is kind of flawed by its nature no? Isn't the idea to put your opponent on a range of hands, not just lock in on one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you should be putting him on a range of hands and not lock onto one. But the phrasing is 'most likely'. I'm not saying that you must narrow him down to a specific hand, but most people have some intuitive weighting they assign to each possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you. Well against a loose passive type, I've got to vote for 2-pair. It's almost the only time they reraise on the flop aside from a set, which is not an option.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I've got to vote for 2-pair. It's almost the only time they reraise on the flop aside from a set, which is not an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe a set falls under the "or better" banner /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jskills]

Someday I will beat this ADD and learn how to read complete sentences /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I do believe that these questions are moderately answerable

[/ QUOTE ]

...

This could go on forever and in all scenarios the probability for him holding TP/set/flushdraw etc varies. It's impossible to answer a question like this IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew someone would pull this. It's just like giving the "it depends" answer. You need to imagine this over just some 'typical' flop possibilities and use your instincts. For the statisically inclined, take it as the average of villain's holdings over all flops.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to imagine this over just some 'typical' flop possibilities and use your instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, then I can discard strong draws and sets immediately. Strong draws because the average player don't know about pumping draws. Sets (or better) just because they're hard to hit. Left is 2 pairs or TP/overpair. Since there were no raise preflop overpair isn't very likely (most flop comes at least T high) and the average passive fish won't 3-bet top pair very often. It's not very often you hit 2-pairs but I think the average fish are most likely to have 2-pairs. Happy? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Stuey]

There are several questions to answer here.

What is hero's hand? Can we narrow down what he would raise preflop and raise on the flop after seeing a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ?

Preflop he raises A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif, A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, I think thats all.

After seeing the flop Hero raises again what requirements does he need to do this?

I think two pair, top pair, and maybe a middle pair with a OESD or some combination of these.

Does knowing this help us put MP2 on a hand?

MP2 is a fish and limped preflop. These types always play any 2 sooted and never fold PP. And since we put hero on top pair, 2 pair, or a pair with a OESD. Can we asume this raises the possibility MP2 has hit trips or a pair with a flush draw ?

Kinda lost myself there does this make sence? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
Thanks for the post was a fun one. I pick trips or a pair with a flush draw.

Edit: After thinking it over I pick strong draw, a flush draw with maybe a pair already. If he had trips and he is a fish he would not reraise. When this type see the 2 diamonds they fear the flush but don't try to chase or charge the player out of the hand. So they become passive. MP2 is being aggressive he is chasing a flush draw and loving it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Stuey]

Chances of getting a PP preflop 6% or 16:1
Chances of getting 2 suited cards preflop 24% or 3.2:1

Does this help my cause? are my numbers even right /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Chances of flopping trips 12% or 7:1
Chances of flopping a flush draw 11% or 8:1

These numbers support my idea that MP2 is on a flush draw.
If these are correct or should even be considered. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
These numbers support my idea that MP2 is on a flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think the average fish knows he should pump his flush draws. But yes, he will not have a set very often.