MLB 3/8

[MicroBob]

TB +110 (at DET)
ATL +110 (vs. NYY)
WAS +110 (at STL)


YTD: 4-3-1, +1.63 units

To be honest....the lines aren't quite as large as I was hoping for on these things. But I guess mny expectations were a bit high.
Still, I think getting 11/10 on these games has value.

WAS has been scoring runs and playing hard...particularly in late-innings. WAS is 4-1 in spring....but STL is 3-1.

NYY are a favorite again....and I think it's pretty much fan driven more than talent-based. ATL is 5-0 in spring-training. NYY are 3-3

TB never receives a whole lot of credit but they have so many scrappy players competing for spots that they should remain competitive for much of the game. and I am guessing this is why they are a dog here. TB is 4-2, DET is 3-3.


note - The W/L records for each of these teams differs from MLB.com to ESPN.com. Kind of annoying and I don't feel like researching further to find the true W/L records for each of these teams.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
DET is 3-3.


note - The W/L records for each of these teams differs from MLB.com to ESPN.com. Kind of annoying and I don't feel like researching further to find the true W/L records for each of these teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

detroit is actually 3-1-1 if you dont count the game they played against some college (forget which). fwiw, i think magglio is getting some ABs this week /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[MicroBob]

2-1 today.

YTD: 5-3-1, +2.83 units

[20Five]

ps.. nice write up and outcome bobby..

keep it up /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
To be honest....the lines aren't quite as large as I was hoping for on these things

[/ QUOTE ]

A few years back the lines were a bit better. You could get some +130 to +140 with a rare +150 but I think people are getting wise to the fact that these are pure coinflips in most situations. Once the lines starting getting closer and closer to pick 'ems I quit playing spring for the most part.

5 or 6 years ago I hit a huge spring training homerun on a 6 team all plus money (+120 to +140 range) parlay. To be honest I haven't even looked at any lines yet this pre-season. There used to be a lot better opportunities than there have been the past few years.

[MicroBob]

Got rained-out in 2 games Wednesday.

Running late posting my picks for today....
just decided to tack them on in here just for the record.


TOR +136 v. NYY (tonight)

PIT +120 v. ATL (win)
LA +116 v. BOS (win)
HOU +118 v. STL (loss)


FWIW - TOR is up to +140 now on Pinnacle. Maybe a better line is available somewhere else. The outcome isn't quite 50/50 since NYY is obviously a better team with better pitching. But I still think the line movement probably just indicates that there are a lot of NYY fans out there and not as many sports-betting Blue Jay fans.
I think there is definite value on this line.


The lines have consistently been in the +117 to +140 range for the opponents of the NYY as I recall. And the Yankees could care less whether or not they win these games.

[TheRover]

Stuck $5 on Toronto for the hell of it. Consider yourself jinxed, I apologize in advance.

[holeplug]

How good of an idea is it to bet on preseason baseball? I always thought it was just throwing darts since teams don't really care if they win or lose.

[hogua]

I haven't done it...yet. But, I believe you answered you own question

[ QUOTE ]
it was just throwing darts since teams don't really care if they win or lose

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume this statemnet is true. As such, we'd expect the ML's to be something -110 for both teams for all games. Since "throwing darts" equated to a 50/50 chance, there'd be no reason to bet, since each bet would be -EV. However, if you can get something like +115 or even +125 on a 50/50 events (remember, that was our assumption) then a bet is +EV.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
teams don't really care if they win or lose.

[/ QUOTE ]


Exactly!!!!


If someone was giving you +115 or +125 on a coin-toss would you take it?

[LLXC]

Wasn't the heads +105 on some sports books for the super bowl? hehe

[MicroBob]

I hope you're kidding.
If not....Wow.