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baggins
09-23-2002, 05:23 AM
the other night i was struck yet again at how elusive and unlikely the badbeat jackpots are to win. i mean, first of all (where i play anyways) you have to have AAATT or better beaten, and both hole cards have to play. kickers can tie or beat the board, in the case of kickers.

this is a tough enough margin. then add in every time someone throws away a hand that would have hit. and consider the board and how the order it comes in could effect how somebody played their hand, and whether or not a jackpot situation is being pushed out of the pot.

then consider the fact that some people just don't play some of the hands that could win. not that they should play all of them, certainly not. but sometimes...

other night, at a 5-10 with a jackpot eligibility, i watched the following board come up: A23AA. JJ took the pot. the guy next to me claims he folded A6s preflop. doesn't realize that he would have hit the jackpot if he had played it. certainly would have stuck around on the flop; nobody bet. turning trips, he's not going anywhere. and by the river, he should be betting lightly, but not too lightly. wanna keep those TT, JJ, QQ, KK in the hand, if they are out there. and there was reason to believe that it was.

maybe im just bitter about not hitting because some guy didn't play a hand.

just noticing how much harder hitting a jackpot is than it seems.

lorinda
09-23-2002, 06:44 AM
If it makes you feel better, I noticed about 6 months ago, someone had this happen (approx) in a jackpot game:
He has AA vs JJ
flop AJJ
turn x
river A
This was one of those huge jackpots that go,and on the turn the AA was winning a fortune, only to suffer a monster outdraw by rivering quads!

Peter
09-23-2002, 01:47 PM
How does this jackpot thing work? The person that loses gets a lot and the person that wins gets a lot less?

Peter

Herb N.
09-23-2002, 08:03 PM
Yes the hand that gets beat gets %50%of the jackpot.The winner gets 25%,and the rest of the table spilts the remaining 25%. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Vehn
09-23-2002, 09:06 PM
Baggins, you may want to double check the rules. At Canterbury Park the jackpot rules are identical to what you stated - except that if aces full are beaten you must have an ace in your hand. In other words, if the board contains 3 aces a pocket pair of TT through KK can't "automatically" make the jackpot go off (obviously the kicker in the other person's hand must beat/tie the board).

Regardless, supposedly the JP goes off about once every 60,000 hands. It seems to be on a 1-2 week schedule here. So its "possible" but I wouldn't bank on it.

bad beetz
09-26-2002, 04:18 PM
the odds of quads over quads, assuming both whole cards play from each hand, is roughly 1/500,000.

this number came from one of the professors mentioned in an earlier post, I can't remember his name

Andy B
09-30-2002, 03:31 AM
The rules for jackpots vary from room to room. My understanding is that in most California rooms, you can make Aces full with the three Aces on the board. I wish it was that way at Canterbury Park, because I would have had a nice payday about a year and a half ago. Another thing that isn't universal is the payout structure. At Canterbury Park, the loser of the hand gets 60%, the winner 20%, and all players who were dealt in split the remaining 20%. I think that in other places, only the loser gets the jackpot, and in other places, the loser and the winner share the jackpot.

Man I hate jackpots.

baggins
10-02-2002, 01:16 AM
im quite sure about this variation in the Harrah's East Chicago poker room. the stipulation states quite clearly that Aces-full-of-Tens must be beat, and both hole cards of the winning AND losing hand must play. it has also been confirmed by regular players, dealers, and floorpeople that a board of AAA23 would qualify for a jackpot if A4-AK and TT,JJ,QQ,KK were shown down.