A9s from CO

[wax311]

I think I might not be folding enough. Not enough hands for pokertracker stats to know. I'm gonna try to post some of my call-down hands in the next week or two, starting with this one.

No reads on this guy.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.20 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

Was I correct to call down the turn and river here?

[ArturiusX]

I fold this on the turn, there's a flush on the board, anyone with a diamond has a flush draw, and you only have 5 outs to improve, giving you 8 to 1 on your turn call, where some of these might be discounted because the button might have two pair already.

[Isura]

Without reads it's really tough to call down here. I would fold the turn against an unknown. Not sufficient odds to draw if behind, and you're very vulnerable if you are ahead.

[wax311]

OK I can see now that I should fold this hand after the 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the bet oon the turn.

Would this be a call-down situation if the turn was a 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif?

I think it would - I suspect I'd be up around 15% of the time with only one opponent here on the turn (is this number about right with no reads?) If I'm behind, I estimate I have about 3.5 outs: 2 9s + 3 As - 1.5out for the chances villain has a set or AJ (I'm drawing dead) or J9, 96, or 92 (I'm drawing to 3 aces). The chances of 3.5 outs hitting are 3.5/46 possible river cards = 7.6%. Ahead 15% of the time + 7.6% when I suck out = 22.6%. I assume I'll have to end up calling 2BB (the turn and then a river bet) to win what will be a 10BB pot - so my 22.6% would just barely warrant a call. Add implied odds when do happen to hit, and it's a call I beleive.

Is this right?

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
assume I'll have to end up calling 2BB (the turn and then a river bet) to win what will be a 10BB pot

[/ QUOTE ]

The final pot is only 8BB, so you would need to be good/improve 25% of the time. By your calculations, you don't quite make it. The fact that he coldcalled and then raised the flop and bet the turn might even make your 15% ahead estimate a little generous. Pretty good mathematical analysis. I may have discounted outs to 3, giving almost no value to the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Against a single opponent, the 3-flush doesn't hurt you too much. What hurts is the possibility that another /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits. 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif would have been preferable, but I don't get too shaken by the 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif here.

[wax311]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
assume I'll have to end up calling 2BB (the turn and then a river bet) to win what will be a 10BB pot

[/ QUOTE ]

The final pot is only 8BB, so you would need to be good/improve 25% of the time. By your calculations, you don't quite make it. The fact that he coldcalled and then raised the flop and bet the turn might even make your 15% ahead estimate a little generous. Pretty good mathematical analysis. I may have discounted outs to 3, giving almost no value to the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Against a single opponent, the 3-flush doesn't hurt you too much. What hurts is the possibility that another /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits. 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif would have been preferable, but I don't get too shaken by the 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well as of the turn my call would make it 8BB, but one more round of bet-call on the river would make the final pot 10BB. The end result is that if I decided to show down my hand when the action got to me in the turn, I'd have to invest 2BB to win what will be a final pot of 10BB after the river action. This would make it a 20% investment, not 25%.

Right?

I didn't think to give the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif less value. But even with 3 outs, it's just barely worth a call at 21.5% - plus you can kick in a few %s for implied odds. I guess the situation just comes down to my estimate of the percentage of time I'd be ahead. If I estimate at 10%, it's a fold; 15%, it's a call.

As for the 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif situation vs. the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif situation, I am ahead on the turn a less percentage of the time because of the flush possibility on the turn. In addition, even when I am ahead, there is a higher possibility that I will be drawn out on if the river is another /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. If I am correct that the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif situation is narrowly worth a call, the 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif pushes the EV scale to fold.