400 NL bluff this turn ?

[pittisit]

10 handed $4 BB

hero (360)
villian (400)

villian is utg+2 and limps 2 others limp
hero limps in CO with KdQc bt calls

flop Qs Qd 7s pot $25

checked to hero bets $20
folded back to villian who raises to $60 hero calls

turn 4s
villian bets $90 hero ???

have no great read on villian but iam told he is a pretty strait forward, tight player. my initial thought here is to min raise the turn and get him off an AQ on river. however, if hero min raises this turn to 180 and villian calls, hero only has about 100 left and if he calls the turn i think he calls the river? . i think moving in on the turn here gets called to?
my friend (hero) opted to call the turn here hoping to see another spade on river to slow down villian and hopefully win a showdown. i think it is cleary a raise or fold situation any thoughts....

[Popinjay]

How do you put him so squarely on AQ? Looks to me more like spades (and outside chance of 77) in which case you're not looking very good. You said he's a tight and straightforward player? I guess that would mean the chances he are bluffing here aren't very good, which is what you can beat. If you think he is bluffing for some reason I like a call.

[patrick_star]

As I'm new here I'm going to phrase my suggestion in typical timid newbie fashion:

What do people think about reraising this flop (make it, say, $90 to go)?

FWIW my KQ would find the muck pretty quickly on this turn.

[Popinjay]

$90's not even possible. But I do like a re-raise to something like $150.

[patrick_star]

Ugh, I knew I would do something retarded like that...I meant raise his bet by $90 (i.e., make it $150 to go), not $30.

[DcifrThs]

this is a clear call. 10 outs: 230:90 + implied odds.

-Barron

[patrick_star]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a clear call. 10 outs: 230:90 + implied odds.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

If we assume all ten outs are good (i.e., you are not against AQ or a boat), you are 3.6:1 against improving on the river, necessitating a $324 pot to call and meaning you will need to get about $90 more from your opponent on the end. Problem is that all but three of your outs will put two pair or trips on board and if your opponent has a flush (as I strongly suspect he does) he may well lay down to your last bet. So I guess it all depends on whether you think villain is capable of making that laydown on the end, and for a lot of opponents that isn't the case so you have a valid point.

[mr. shred]

Do you think the villain would be raising with a flush draw? Probably not. You could put him on a queen but with what kicker. I would have reraised the flop to 150 and go from there. If he was on a draw you still had outs. you never get any imformation when you just call.