AKQJ10
03-07-2005, 08:26 PM
I don't post in this forum too much so forgive me if I violate protocol, but I'd love to get some comments.
Pacific 0.25/0.50 (hence the manual hand history, sorry)
First hand, no player reads, but looks like a just another loose-aggressive Pacific microlimit table.
Hero posts blind at 3 to the right of the button.
Cut-off posts blind
Hero dealt Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero checks, MP3 calls, CO checks, button calls, SB calls, BB checks.
FLOP: 8 players, $1.85 in pot (7.5 sb)
T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets out, next 3 call, Hero calls, remaining 3 call
Rationale: I figure with two bad overcards and a backdoor straight draw, discount six overcard outs to 50% so that's 3 effective outs.
3 effective outs come in at 3/47 or 15:1
I'm getting 12:1 and in this loose game can anticipate being paid off at least 15-fold if I make my hand.
TURN: 8 players, $3.75 (7.5 big bets)
Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets out, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises
Rationale: $4.75 (9.5 big bets) in the pot
I'm quite probably best (~70%?) -- a better queen, overpair, ragged two pair, or set might be out though. The bettor might have QT, but he might not. If not, I have many redraws against lesser two pair.
A top pair of queens is a very fragile hand, though, so I need to drive out overcards to win this sizeable pot.
next 2 cold call, button folds, SB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls two, Hero calls
Rationale: I'm probably not best, but I'm now getting 21.5:1 on my call. That's almost worth it even if I were certain the reraiser had a set of tens!
Remaining 2 call.
RIVER: 5 players, $11.20 (22.5 big bets)
5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets out, all call.
Rationale: Now I'm getting 24.5:1 on my call. There's only a remote chance my top pair-third kicker is best, especially with the flush hitting, but it's certainly more than 4%.
<font color="white">
Now I'll try simulating the bisonbison result thing:
Bettor shows T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG+1 mucks
Hero shows Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP3 shows Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif
CO shows 98 of clubs for the backdoor flush
So in fact, I was tied for best until the river. </font>
Pacific 0.25/0.50 (hence the manual hand history, sorry)
First hand, no player reads, but looks like a just another loose-aggressive Pacific microlimit table.
Hero posts blind at 3 to the right of the button.
Cut-off posts blind
Hero dealt Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero checks, MP3 calls, CO checks, button calls, SB calls, BB checks.
FLOP: 8 players, $1.85 in pot (7.5 sb)
T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets out, next 3 call, Hero calls, remaining 3 call
Rationale: I figure with two bad overcards and a backdoor straight draw, discount six overcard outs to 50% so that's 3 effective outs.
3 effective outs come in at 3/47 or 15:1
I'm getting 12:1 and in this loose game can anticipate being paid off at least 15-fold if I make my hand.
TURN: 8 players, $3.75 (7.5 big bets)
Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets out, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises
Rationale: $4.75 (9.5 big bets) in the pot
I'm quite probably best (~70%?) -- a better queen, overpair, ragged two pair, or set might be out though. The bettor might have QT, but he might not. If not, I have many redraws against lesser two pair.
A top pair of queens is a very fragile hand, though, so I need to drive out overcards to win this sizeable pot.
next 2 cold call, button folds, SB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls two, Hero calls
Rationale: I'm probably not best, but I'm now getting 21.5:1 on my call. That's almost worth it even if I were certain the reraiser had a set of tens!
Remaining 2 call.
RIVER: 5 players, $11.20 (22.5 big bets)
5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets out, all call.
Rationale: Now I'm getting 24.5:1 on my call. There's only a remote chance my top pair-third kicker is best, especially with the flush hitting, but it's certainly more than 4%.
<font color="white">
Now I'll try simulating the bisonbison result thing:
Bettor shows T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG+1 mucks
Hero shows Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP3 shows Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif
CO shows 98 of clubs for the backdoor flush
So in fact, I was tied for best until the river. </font>