Bjorn
03-07-2005, 03:16 PM
In theory the amount of dead money in the pot pre-deal should determine how thight or loose it is correct to play. (For more about this ToP ch4.)
However how do you calculate it and how does different games compare to each other?
Antes really are dead money so i guess you just add these up.
Blinds would seem a little trickier because these are really live bets. As an example lets look at what happens when a person posts out of position at the cutoff in a tenhanded FLT game. How much dead money does this add?
Assumption 1: No one else adapts to the extra dead money.
Assumption 2: The posting player plays correctly in this situation.
The maximum amount of dead money possible is of course one small bet, therefor we will start from there and count down.
First of all he would be dealt some hands he would've played anyway. How many depends a lot on how the table plays. Lets say he'd play 20% of hands on average. On these hands he of course loses nothing so now we're down to 0.8 small bets.
Then there is of course hands that he would normally fold but are not super terrible. Looking at the graph at page 47 of SSH one would guess that many losing hands "only" lose a tenth of a bet or two. Lets say he could've called an additional 50% of hands for an average loss of 0.2 small bets. This means he can now check these hands and reclaim 0.8 small bets 50% of the time reducing the dead money by a further 0.4 small bets leaving 0.3 small bets of dead money.
Then their would be some more reductions (no hand is obviously -1 small bet preflop) bringing it down sligthly more. Lets say to 0.25 small bets or thereabouts.
Now the numbers in these calculations might be way off depending on the game in question (I'm thinking of a semiloose passive game mainly) but how about the principle.
I guess you could do the same calculation for the normal blinds. The amount of dead money for the BB should be larger I assume because you'd want to play less hands there (position) and the -EV hands would probably be more -EV (position again).
Now I have some questions
Is this a sound way of reasoning as to how much of the blinds really are dead?
Does the result of only about 0.25 small bets for a poster at CO seem about right for a typical Small stakes game. (At least as a ball park figure.)
How much should you adjust your starting hands to a change in the dead money. (If someone posts OOP or if there is an additional ante for example.)
/Bjorn
However how do you calculate it and how does different games compare to each other?
Antes really are dead money so i guess you just add these up.
Blinds would seem a little trickier because these are really live bets. As an example lets look at what happens when a person posts out of position at the cutoff in a tenhanded FLT game. How much dead money does this add?
Assumption 1: No one else adapts to the extra dead money.
Assumption 2: The posting player plays correctly in this situation.
The maximum amount of dead money possible is of course one small bet, therefor we will start from there and count down.
First of all he would be dealt some hands he would've played anyway. How many depends a lot on how the table plays. Lets say he'd play 20% of hands on average. On these hands he of course loses nothing so now we're down to 0.8 small bets.
Then there is of course hands that he would normally fold but are not super terrible. Looking at the graph at page 47 of SSH one would guess that many losing hands "only" lose a tenth of a bet or two. Lets say he could've called an additional 50% of hands for an average loss of 0.2 small bets. This means he can now check these hands and reclaim 0.8 small bets 50% of the time reducing the dead money by a further 0.4 small bets leaving 0.3 small bets of dead money.
Then their would be some more reductions (no hand is obviously -1 small bet preflop) bringing it down sligthly more. Lets say to 0.25 small bets or thereabouts.
Now the numbers in these calculations might be way off depending on the game in question (I'm thinking of a semiloose passive game mainly) but how about the principle.
I guess you could do the same calculation for the normal blinds. The amount of dead money for the BB should be larger I assume because you'd want to play less hands there (position) and the -EV hands would probably be more -EV (position again).
Now I have some questions
Is this a sound way of reasoning as to how much of the blinds really are dead?
Does the result of only about 0.25 small bets for a poster at CO seem about right for a typical Small stakes game. (At least as a ball park figure.)
How much should you adjust your starting hands to a change in the dead money. (If someone posts OOP or if there is an additional ante for example.)
/Bjorn