more agression: misplaced or on target

[Moneyline]

Party 3/6 10 handed. I had reads on the players when I was at the table, but I no longer remember what they were. Curious to hear what people think about this hand...

EP calls, MP calls, MP2 checks after open posting, CO calls, SB completes, I check in BB with 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players, 6 SBs)

SB bets, I raise, EP calls, 2 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 player, 7BBs)

SB bets, I call, EP calls, CO calls.

River: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players, 11BBs)

SB bets, I raise, EP folds, CO calls, SB calls.

[djr]

flop: I like the raise, you have a nut low draw with a weak flush. With the board paired, you stand a pretty good chance of knocking out most other flushes. That 3 people called suggests that either someone has a boat, or you're splitting the low. That SB didn't reraise the turn suggests he has the low draw to me.

Turn: You got your low, but another raise probably won't knock a low out. That SB bets again re-enforces my thought he has a 24xx, possibly he called the flop with his monster to exact more money on the turn? Given no one else raised, makes me wonder if the boat really is out there.

River: About the best card that could hit for you. I like the raise, you're gauranteed a piece of the low, and may even get the high. It's a risky move, but I think it will win the day given the action so far.

I'd say SB showed down 24xx and CO had a 3 or other crap holding. I'd be surprised if someone showed an A3xx and didn't jam it.

[gergery]

I like how you played it overall, but think you should raise the turn.

Run out some scenarios here: you raise the turn vs. not raising the turn, and that gets some folds vs. not getting folds, and assign some hands to your opponents and frequency to outcomes. I think the result you’ll see is that raising will win you an add’l half the pot infrequently, but that change is huge. It will cost you in lost bets for half the pot a moderate amount of the time, but that loss is relatively small, but it will also gain you add’l bets when you are not quartered and your opponents go for high (or 2nd nut lows). The net outcome is higher EV from raising.

--Greg

[Yads]

I like it.

[Buzz]

Moneyline -

• 1st betting round: fine.

• 2nd betting round:
Hard to say what to do without knowing your opponents, but I probably usually would call rather than raise here.

There are twenty cards in the five hands of your opponents. <font color="white">_</font>Middle cards are disfavored cards for starting hands in limit Omaha-8 - but threes are not generally disfavored. I don’t know as there’s any <font color="white">_</font>more than a random chance of your five opponents playing starting hands with threes, but I don’t think there’s <font color="white">_</font>less than a random chance of it.

If that’s true, with a pair of threes on the flop, five opponents seeing the flop, and no three in your own hand, the probability of none of your five opponents having a three is no less than
P = C(43,20)/C(45,20) = 0.3030.

Thus the odds in favor of at least one of your opponents having a three here are about seven to three. And nobody is going to realistically fold a hand with a three after this flop.

You'd like to get rid of chasers with better clubs than you, but you don't have a hand yet, and decent players with clubs will not be drawing for the flush anyway in the face of the paired board.

You'd love to see a seven on the turn, but a deuce or four on the turn is a disaster for you, and a deuce or four is twice as likely as a seven. Including sevens, fifteen cards in the stub enable low for you - but thirty cards do not. Thus the odds against the turn enabling low for you are about two to one (against).

In terms of the fresh money going into the pot, for every dollar put into the pot by each one of your opponents you also put in one dollar. With five opponents, there are five dollars from your opponents going into the pot for each dollar you contribute. Thus you’re getting five to one fresh money odds for the whole pot.
However, if you think of half of that fresh money going to high and half of it as going to low, with five opponents, and if nobody ties you for low, you’re actually getting two to one fresh money odds for the low half of the pot. (But you’ll get quartered or sixthed for low some of the time. It’s impossible to figure exactly how often you’ll get quartered or sixthed with a 24XX low because all players do not favor the same cards in starting hands).

With only three opponents, , if you think of half of the fresh money going to high and half of it as going to low, and if nobody ties you for low, then you’re actually only getting one to one fresh money odds for the low half of the pot - again not taking into account the number of times you’ll get quartered or sixthed for low.

You also have some implied fresh money odds. If you make low on the turn, you should be able to collect on the third and fourth betting rounds. At the point where the action is on you in the second betting round, these implied odds are very difficult to figure, even if you know your opponents, and more difficult if you don’t. Will the four players behind you stay in for a single bet? (Nobody knows). Will they stay in for a raise? (Nobody knows). Will they stay in if you make your low on the turn? (Nobody knows). Will they stay in on the river? (Nobody knows).

Let’s look at four possible scenarios.

I. Let’s say that:
• (1) you raise on the second betting round (as you did) and everybody calls,
• (2) you make low on the turn, and
• (3) everybody also stay in for a bet on the third and fourth betting rounds.
Let’s say that all three of these conditions are met. That’s a very rosey picture. In that case, if you won half the pot, you’d win 15 small bets.

II. Instead, let’s say that:
• (1) you raise on the second betting round and two opponents fold (as happened),
• (2) you make low on the turn, and
• (3) everybody also stays in for a bet on the third and fourth betting rounds.
Let’s say that all three of these conditions are met. That’s still a very rosey picture. In that case, if you won half the pot, you’d win 9 small bets.

III. Instead, let’s say that:
• (1) you don’t raise on the second betting round and everybody calls,
• (2) you make low on the turn, and
• (3) everybody also stays in for a bet on the third and fourth betting rounds.
Let’s say that all three of these conditions are met. That’s still a very rosey picture. In that case, if you won half the pot, you’d win 13 small bets.

IV. And finally, let’s say that:
• (1) you don’t raise on the second betting round and two opponents fold anyway,
• (2) you make low on the turn, and
• (3) everybody also stays in for a bet on the third and fourth betting rounds.
Let’s say that all three of these conditions are met. That’s still a very rosey picture. In that case, if you won half the pot, you’d win 8 small bets.

Phew.

What it looks like to me is that if you make low, you do better with more opponents, raise or no raise, than with fewer opponents.

Obviously it’s best for you if they all call the raise - but if two of them fold, you don’t do as well.

You’re not realistically going to knock out anybody else with a nut low draw after this flop. Ironically, perhaps, it makes more sense to raise after you flop the 2nd-nut-low than to raise when you flop the nut-low-draw. (Because you might knock out someone who also has a 2nd-nut-low plus you might pick up a tell from the nut-low). Notice that I’m comparing a made 2nd-nut-low to a 1st-nut-low-draw.

Even when you do make low on the turn, things will go sour for you with a deuce or four on the river, or you may have to split the low half with one or two opponents.

Assuming you don’t have to split the low half with anyone, you only win one or two small bets more when you raise on the second betting round than when you don’t raise.

You lose two small bets by raising for the two times out of three you don’t make your low on the turn. On the average, you simply don’t make any money by raising here, unless.....

.....unless the raise intimidates an opponent into folding who would have ended up with part or all of what otherwise would have been your share of the pot.

Intimidating an opponent is always a possibility when you raise. But you only want to intimidate an opponent who would win all or part of what otherwise would have been yours, not a paying customer.

Considering your hand and the flop, I think it's much less likely that you’ll knock out somebody who, if allowed to limp, would take away part of what you otherwise would win - than knock out someone you should rather have limping along.

As it was, you raised and two opponents folded to the double bet. Would they have called a single bet? Would you want them calling a single bet? Since at this point you're mainly playing for half the pot, you really only got one to one fresh money for your raise. However, the odds against your making low on the next card are two to one.

• 3rd betting round: fine.
A raise would be fine too. The difference between here and the 2nd betting round is now you have made your low.

• 4th betting round:
I like your raise here. There's a very good chance you have a scooper or 3/4. When the board has two pairs, it's less likely an opponent has made a full house than when the board only has one pair.

Just my opinion.

Buzz