QTs flops mid pair, big pot [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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caggin

03-07-2005, 06:28 AM

How's this hand?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

How's this raise? I figure pot's big and I've got 5 outs to the T or Q, plus backdoor flush and straight possibilites. A raise may buy me the button, get me a free card, get rid of things like K9, or KT. What do you think? 

Turn: (10.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

Nick Royale

03-07-2005, 06:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How's this raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not 100% sure but you'll have ~25-26% equity so I don't think it's that bad. But getting 3-betted would suck so I wouldn't try the free card play. It will rarely succeed.

olavfo

03-07-2005, 07:08 AM

Why not raise the turn for value? If we assume nobody got the ace of hearts and another heart you've got 15 outs (odds 2.1 : 1). You will very likely have 3 callers in this position, since UTG and UTG+1 already have called one bet.

olavfo

Nick Royale

03-07-2005, 07:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise the turn for value? If we assume nobody got the ace of hearts and another heart you've got 15 outs (odds 2.1 : 1). You will very likely have 3 callers in this position, since UTG and UTG+1 already have called one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. We'll have:

Flush: 9 outs
Straight (A's and 9's): 2 + 2 = 4 outs (2 straight outs are already accounted for in the flush and thay put 4 to a flush so I discount some more)
Trips (T's): 2 outs
Two pair (Q's): 0 outs

Total: ~15 outs and ~33% equity. We have a big overlay so getting 3-betted would not suck that much. I don't like raising the turn with draws in general but this time it would be fine. I would probably not do it anyway since if I hit my flush on the river after raised the turn I would probably get checked to, not being able to trap everyone for 2 bets. I think that's more important than pushing the edge on the turn, but it's probably a slim decision.

ArturiusX

03-07-2005, 08:58 AM

Check-raise or bet the turn, what do you guys think?

I lean towards check-raise, we can trap more callers that way and pay off the flush with a bigger EV+.

caggin

03-08-2005, 02:30 AM

You guys are totally right, I didn't even think of raising the turn for value, which is certainly correct here. I've got about 17 outs (I think all of them are good, except for the Q) so I only need 2 callers and will probably get 3. If I had taken that line, growing a 20 BB pot at the river, would you call a single river bet closing the action, or is it still a fold?

So you guys don't like the flop raise? I wasn't too sure about it myself, hence this post.

milesdyson

03-08-2005, 02:39 AM

I'm raising preflop.

Flop raise is marginal but probably around neutral with the backdoor draws and the slight chance it gets you a free turn card.

SteveL91

03-08-2005, 03:36 AM

I personally wouldn't raise the flop. UTG bets and two people like their hand enough to call; I just don't see your raise pushing enough people out of the pot to make it worthwhile. Since it's neither a raise for value, nor providing protection, I'd wait until the turn to re-evaluate.

On the turn, I'd look to C/R.