Trips facing a big raise

[Chris Daddy Cool]

saturday night 10/20 NL gme at the commerce, I just got moved from the must-move game so i have no reads on any of the players.

villian in the hand is a talkative late 20's girl. she's played a couple hands preflop but hasn't made it past the turn in them.

I have $1400. She has about $1000

she open limps UTG+1. 2 callers behind her. i limp in the small blidn with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. BB checks his option. 5 players in for 100 bucks.

Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet 60 dollars. BB folds. She makes it 300 flat. Folded back to me.

What range of hands do you put her on and what is my best action? Or is this ridiculously easy and if I don't know the answer I shouldn't be playing in such a big game?

[fimbulwinter]

Given my experience with NL players at commerce (at the 200NL admittedly), my guess is that she puts you on a cheap steal and she holds a hand like two overs and a flush draw, straight draw or a marginal overpair. This seems to be the standard line for such players. It would take a read and some table time with her to make me lay this one down. I feel you're ahead.

I'd call and set her in on a non heart, non 6 turn (unless its A/images/graemlins/heart.gif of course). If the above peels, I keep it small or look for a fold if shown agression.

By the way, how's the game? I was thinking of taking a few buyins and making a run at it.

fim

[soah]

pocket pair? She'd have to be really bad to be limping UTG+1 with anything with a 3 or 2. Maybe KhQh or something is possible too. She's so shortstacked that you're basically just looking for the best method to get the money in the pot, unless you have some reason to believe that the only possible hand she could have is 33.

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call and set her in on a non heart, non 6 turn (unless its A/images/graemlins/heart.gif of course). If the above peels, I keep it small or look for a fold if shown agression.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like this plan. if hero calls there will be $700 in the pot with villainess only having $700 left; how does hero "keep it small" when there's still two more betting rounds and the opponent has merely a pot-sized bet remaining in her stack? looking for a fold if a scare card comes is a bad idea too: again, villainess has only a pot-sized bet left; you can't fold. with deeper stacks, it would make sense to call the raise and then lead a non-heart turn when her odds have dwindled considerably. in this situation, however, hero has to push.

[fimbulwinter]

if he pushes the flop, do you feel she'll call with anything he beats?

[zaxx19]

A4h...A5h....obviously she is playing her draw quite aggressively if she is on one correct..She almost has to call any raise with those two hands after her bet of 300.

[Jason Strasser]

I dunno this smells like a draw but it could be an overpair. I root for just sticking it all in on the flop. Its a limped pot so the possibility that there are weaker 2s out there is also possible.

-Jason

[thatpfunk]

Min-re-raise!

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
saturday night 10/20 NL gme at the commerce, I just got moved from the must-move game so i have no reads on any of the players.

villian in the hand is a talkative late 20's girl. she's played a couple hands preflop but hasn't made it past the turn in them.

I have $1400. She has about $1000

she open limps UTG+1. 2 callers behind her. i limp in the small blidn with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. BB checks his option. 5 players in for 100 bucks.

Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet 60 dollars. BB folds. She makes it 300 flat. Folded back to me.

What range of hands do you put her on and what is my best action? Or is this ridiculously easy and if I don't know the answer I shouldn't be playing in such a big game?

[/ QUOTE ]

How about call and put her in on a non heart turn? She wouldn't raise that amount when full, and shouldn't be limping 45 in EP.

[technologic]

is villain hot?

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
How about call and put her in on a non heart turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like a push here. If you just call and a heart comes on the turn you could easily end up folding the best hand.

[AZK]

I think I'm gonna go with the call, put her in on the turn if it's a brick group. She's put in a 1/3 of her stack, the real question is whether or not she will call if you move in on this flop, if she won't, I can't see much merit for moving in.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
She's put in a 1/3 of her stack, the real question is whether or not she will call if you move in on this flop, if she won't, I can't see much merit for moving in.

[/ QUOTE ]

A minraise gives you the best chance of bringing her along while you are ahead.

Any reason not to do it in this instance?

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
She's put in a 1/3 of her stack, the real question is whether or not she will call if you move in on this flop, if she won't, I can't see much merit for moving in.

[/ QUOTE ]

A minraise gives you the best chance of bringing her along while you are ahead.

Any reason not to do it in this instance?

[/ QUOTE ]

gives her the right price for a draw.

[turnipmonster]

the reason is it's a transparent move. she can trap when she's full and fold most hands you're beating. if she is drawing it prices her in as fsu mention. minraising here seems a bad play.

--turnipmonster

[thatpfunk]

Essentially doing the same thing an all-in does, no? Just with the bigger chance she might think your raise is funky and call when beaten.

[fimbulwinter]

you sir, win

fim

[thatpfunk]

I make plenty of mistakes, and when turnip and FSU are saying so, I believe you guys, so here was my thinking (if you could explain where im going wrong, much appreciated)...

You are giving her 2.7:1 (720:260)...

What are you afraid of her drawing to with those odds? If she has a straight + FD she is calling an all in anyways, ya?

The consesus seemed to be that CDC needs to get his money in, but she would most likely fold when behind. I just thought it would increase the chance she might call when behind, since it is a strange move.

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
Essentially doing the same thing an all-in does, no? Just with the bigger chance she might think your raise is funky and call when beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

not really. an allin could be a flush draw here, a minraise is likely not. if she has a worse deuce she may make a big call, thinking CDC would trap with a boat.

my guess is anyone in that game knows that once the minraise gets called all the money is going in, no question. it will be a ~1200 pot and she will have ~400 left.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

there's 100 (preflop) + 60 (flop bet) + 300 (her call + her raise) = 460 in the middle after her raise, if CDC calls the 240 and raises 240 more she'll be getting 940:240 or about 4:1, and this isn't factoring in her implied odds.

--turnipmonster

[thatpfunk]

ah, thank you sir. you have pointed out that I cant add. uff /images/graemlins/crazy.gif...

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
an allin could be a flush draw here, a minraise is likely not. if she has a worse deuce she may make a big call, thinking CDC would trap with a boat.


[/ QUOTE ]

nice point. this is why you play so good...

[turnipmonster]

I have made some horrible basic math blunders while posting sometimes, it's easy to do. I'm sure you can add fine /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

--turnipmonster

[Usagi_yo]

I think you're up against a hand like JJ,TT,99. Perhaps Axh and the remote possiblity of 33 or another A2.

She's OOP so any call is going to be of major concern for her and put her in a tough spot.

I say, slam the door shut and move all in. Pot will be what? $460+700 more for $1160 with her to call $700.

Flush draw will simply have to fold, Overpairs will be tempted to call.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
my guess is anyone in that game knows that once the minraise gets called all the money is going in, no question. it will be a ~1200 pot and she will have ~400 left.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect.

I know that it seems blatantly obvious, but there are many players in that game, especially ones who buy in relatively short, that do things like call 400 w/ 800 behind in situations where they would never call 800.

As I've said before, it's a very good game.

[theben]

shes either raising on a draw or firing with an overpair. its more likely she has an overpair, but don't rule out of flush draw. fire back all your chips, theres enough in the pot now worth protecting. she could be on a pure resteal, but i dont think so.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

so she puts in the big raise on the flop putting $460 on the flop. i called time and wondered what she could possibly have. as she limped in UTG+1 i couldn't really imagine her having a deuce unless it was the other A2, perhaps 32s since it's connected or T2o for Brunson style points, but hoenstly she'd have to be pretty bad to play something like 52 or 42. obviously i would love for her to have that here but i didn't think it was all that likely. 33 crossed my mind briefly, but i didn't think she'd play a fullhouse that fast especially if she put me on an overpair or flush draw.

so she basically has either a flush draw, an overpair TT-44, pure bluff, deuce, or fullhouse. with 460 in the pot and her only having 700 behind i considered stopping and going but i decided pushing would be better.

i pushed. she called and flipped over 33 and took it down.

[Usagi_yo]

Okay, Maybe I'm skewed now by looking at the results, but I'm curious as to who would play it like this:

I'm still going to discount her have 33, for the exact reasons you do. Why would she play it fast if there is a potential flush or straight to be made?

Knowing that she likely had overpair or flush draw would a flat call in position be a valid way to play? Seeing if she would fire 2nd barrell on a missed flush draw or overpair? I know you're risking the pot to a flush draw out, but wouldn't you rather be on the turn with a bigger pot and her odds reduced to 1 card to come?

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
i pushed. she called and flipped over 33 and took it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's any consolation, I would have played it exactly the same way as you did. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Lawrence

[fimbulwinter]

gak, sorry to hear.

fim

[mgsimpleton]

to illustrate my thinking on why she played it fast and i don't dislike it at all, here is a hand i had...

1/2 at foxwoods, 10 handed, villain makes it 15 from MP, i flat call on the button with JJ. everyone else folds.

the flop is J99 w/ two hearts, he bets and i flat call - basically he makes his flush w/ AK hearts but due to my flat call i didn't earn very much money despite the fact that we were deeeeeep stacked (more than 300BB each)

here i didn't put him on a 9 so i couldn't raise huge but i definitely should have raised the flop, with the thinking if he has a missed AK i'm not making anything (unless it's hearts) and with an overpair or AK hearts i don't want to give away strength with a flat call. i kicked myself for days for not stacking him.

in your situation, she is thinking (and i play this way as well all the time) "either he has a 2 or he is on a semibluff. if he has a 2 he will pay me if i push this. if it is a semibluff it will likely miss and i will not make much money." given that you were in the SB betting into a field of players, you are likely to have the 2, in which case why let the hearts or straight get there and scare you away? i think she played it well and i don't see it being questionable at all. that being said, i think you'd have to make an incredible read to not get your money in here - it's just one of those situations.

[turnipmonster]

a good player is going to play it fast because really you either have a deuce or you don't, and if you don't then they won't make much anyways. the short stack sizes make this somewhat less true, but in general it still applies.

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
As I've said before, it's a very good game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I stand corrected, hopefully I get a chance to stop by this game when I'm in LA in two months.