AK misses flop...now what? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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caggin

03-07-2005, 03:38 AM

MP3 is 44/0/1.6 over 43 hands.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Would you bet here like I did? Pot's big so I'm not folding. If I'm not folding, might as well bet (maybe I can get a free card), right? 

Turn: (9.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero...?

Uh oh. MP3 isn't scared of the A. Does he have the straight? 2 pair or a set? Fold now or call down?

adsman

03-07-2005, 05:10 AM

I would have gone for the checkraise on the turn. If villian reraises a checkraise then I know I'm bad. I'm gone.

gasoltub

03-07-2005, 06:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would have gone for the checkraise on the turn. If villian reraises a checkraise then I know I'm bad. I'm gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about just calling? And check/call the river unimproved. Costs the same as a checkraise, plus you get the showdown with a hand that has a chance of winning...
And you can get a bet in on the river if you improve to a more likely best hand.

Nick Royale

03-07-2005, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Uh oh. MP3 isn't scared of the A. Does he have the straight? 2 pair or a set? Fold now or call down?

[/ QUOTE ]
2 pair or set is more likely than a straight. I want to see a showdown and I don't want to pay 2BB to know I'm behind (and if I'm behind to T9 I would definately not want to fold when getting 3-betted since I have 8 outs). Just check/calling the flop seems a bit passive and result oriented. I don't think I can turn to a 3-bet if I check/raise. I think I'm calling down from the turn raise.

pointcount

03-07-2005, 07:21 AM

Yes it's true you can save a bet by playing it a little more passive but hindsight is a wonderful thing. You only know you're possibly behind something stronger when you see villan's turn action, so check calling IMO is weak. I check raise the turn and call down from there. I don't mind the bet though.

Carmine

03-07-2005, 08:38 AM

I don't know if I agree with a turn C/R. If villian is holding JJ-KK the ace may make him check through. I think when you get raised on the turn you are in trouble. If I interpert his numbers correctly that you posted and looking at his play I would say your boy is holding AA most likely and TT coming in second. Even though I just call his turn raise and check/call the river. I'm not good enough to lay down aces here.

Nick Royale

03-07-2005, 08:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If villian is holding JJ-KK the ace may make him check through.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree with JTs and even more hands too.

[ QUOTE ]
I would say your boy is holding AA most likely

[/ QUOTE ]
There are only 1 combo of A's possible so I think not. TT is likely. 99 and 77 are also likely.

ArturiusX

03-07-2005, 08:52 AM

I'd call this down from here, you have TPTK and I think worse hands will bet into you here.

Carmine

03-07-2005, 09:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If villian is holding JJ-KK the ace may make him check through.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree with JTs and even more hands too.

[ QUOTE ]
I would say your boy is holding AA most likely

[/ QUOTE ]
There are only 1 combo of A's possible so I think not. TT is likely. 99 and 77 are also likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, I thought villian was the initail PF raiser. With 0 PF aggression and all the postflop aggression I had to put him on AA. I see now he just called Hero's 3-bet so 77, 99 do become likey candidates.

Buckmulligan

03-07-2005, 10:21 AM

I think it looks fine. Call down after you get raised on the turn, even thought it looks like he has AT. I dont really think you are betting the flop for a free card. Although there may be some value there, the bet is mainly to knock players out.

joeski19

03-07-2005, 01:02 PM

OT new guy question. What does MP3 is 44/0/1.6 over 43 hands mean?

I know what Middle position 3 is, and I know those are poker tracker stats. So what's the 44/0/1.6 mean?

I'm just know getting into PT and I've yet to learn all the acronynms.

Nick Royale

03-07-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
44/0/1.6

[/ QUOTE ]
44= vpip
0= pfr
1.6= aggression factor

dkernler

03-07-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OT new guy question. What does MP3 is 44/0/1.6 over 43 hands mean?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's VP$IP/PFR/AF. (also in the FAQ (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1659321&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1))

VP$IP - voluntarily put $ in pot (%)
PFR - preflop raise (%)
AF - aggression factor

joeski19

03-07-2005, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OT new guy question. What does MP3 is 44/0/1.6 over 43 hands mean?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's VP$IP/PFR/AF. (also in the FAQ (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1659321&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1))

VP$IP - voluntarily put $ in pot (%)
PFR - preflop raise (%)
AF - aggression factor

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I go re-read the FAQ. I skimmed over it the 1st time. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

caggin

03-08-2005, 03:15 AM

Thanks for the responses. So you guys would've called down too. Villain won with a set of Ts, and I felt I should've seen it coming and folded to the turn raise. In hindsight, I figured the only hands he could have were 77, 99, TT, AA (unlikely), AT (I have 3 outs to the K), T9 (I have 8 outs, but I think it highly unlikely for someone with VPIP=44% to call 3 cold with T9, even if they are sooted), maybe A /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (but this is even less likely). I don't think a non-maniac would raise here with KK, QQ or JJ, or any other hand I beat. I don't know how the math works out exactly, but if this analysis is accurate, I don't think I should've called. Of course, my analysis could be results oriented:

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Hero has Ac Kh (one pair, aces).
MP3 has Tc Th (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: MP3 wins 15.50 BB.

istewart

03-08-2005, 03:35 AM

Is check-calling this flop okay?

SteveL91

03-08-2005, 03:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is check-calling this flop okay?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think it is and if I were first or maybe second to act, it's what I'd do; however, once two people check to you, I'm most likely betting with only one person left to act.

caggin

03-08-2005, 03:51 AM

Hmm, I don't like check calling, but I may be too aggressive with overcards. With 13 in the pot, I always bet here. If I were up front, and with good position to knock some people out, I'd try for a check raise.

SteveL91

03-08-2005, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I don't like check calling, but I may be too aggressive with overcards. With 13 in the pot, I always bet here. If I were up front, and with good position to knock some people out, I'd try for a check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to break myself of the habit of auto-betting the flop when I raised pf. Now, as a general rule, I try to avoid doing so if there's anymore than three other people in the pot. Obviously, if I'm somewhat familiar with other players and think I can really knock out some players, I'll bet.

On this flop, I don't know that I'd auto-bet it; I'm just not sure I'd accomplish anything since it's a two-flush, three-to-a-straight board.

Also, if the betting were capped pf, a c/r might be viable; the way things sit, I wouldn't try it. You just can't reliably say "X" is definitely going to bet. Once you 3-bet pf, it's more likely that it'll be checked to you on the flop.

But, this is just my opinion; it's definitely not written in stone or anything. I'm far, far, far from an expert.