Olympic Lines

I just quickly checked out the online book I use most and thought the following wagers looked pretty good..


Men's Curling.. Canada +150 to win gold..

Great bet, as the only competition will be Sweden, who coincidentally is also going off at +150.. Curling in Canada is huge, whereas I'm sure the rest of the world barely even views it as a sport (save Sweden).. I am somewhat tempted to bet both, but I really feel Canada is a better team than Sweden and will stick with the one side..


Women's Curling.. Canada -110

Same reasons.. In Canada, there is FIERCE competition just to make the olympics.. May pass on this however since there are rumours that the Canadian skip, Law, may have an injured ankle..


Men's Figure Skating.. Elvis Stojko to win gold.. +1500

This is the type of thing you throw 20 on to possible win a few hundred... He is definitely not the favourite, but will challenge for podium.. +1500 is tremedous value IMO


Men's Ice Hockey.. Czech Republic +250

A few days ago, my book had Canada and US favoured at +150, and Czechs at +300.. Now, Canada is +125 and USA is +300.. Pretty huge swings if you ask me...The two best teams in this tournament are Canada and the Czech's.. However, at +250, I think the Czech's are being highly underrated... Anything can happen with Hasek between the pipes, and with the only other big name goalie in the world, Roy, sitting this one out, it's tough to imagine them not being the favourite... +250 is value IMO..


I'm sure there are way better numbers out there if you are shopping, but these are just the ones that I noticed.. Good luck to all..

Teddy,


After reading your post I did a little line-surfing.


Disclaimer - I'm Canadian and slightly biased, 8:)


>Men's Curling.. Canada +150 to win gold..


Kevin Martin has yet to prove himself on the world stage. He was fourth in '92 olympics when it was a demostrion sport. He was young (24), and inexperienced. His team is fourth in the World Curling Tour (dont laugh, it's quite serious) money list. This, despite his abbreiviated schedule. Simply put, his team is one of the best in Canada. Considering that the 10 best, and probably 17 of 20, teams in the world come from Canada, he has to be a huge favorite. Any + line is a large overlay IMO. Even though Lindholm (Sweden) is the second favorite, I think Martin's main competition will come from McMillian (Scotland). I found Canada +200. I bet 2 units.


>Women's Curling.. Canada -110


Kelly Law twisted her ankle in early January, but tested it yesterday and had no problem. The main competition is Gustafson (Sweden), who is a four-time world champion. This is however, quite misleading because she always represents Sweden, where the Canadian representative has to beat most of the worlds best just to represent Canada. The Canadian women have won the World Championship many more times that Gustafson during the Swede's tenure. I found Canada (even). I bet 3 units.


>Men's Figure Skating.. Elvis Stojko to win gold.. +1500


Don't like this one much. The problem is not Elvis, but they way in which skating is judged. The HUGE bias is towards the top 2 or 3 skaters in the world rankings. Even though Stojko is healthy for the first time in a long while, he is just not in the judges favour at the moment. Even though I will be cheering him on, I would stay away. Yagudin and Plushenko should be gold/silver. Pass.


Men's Ice Hockey.. Czech Republic +250


The Czech's are certainly going to be tough. Hasek proved that he could win gold by himself. But the fact is, they were badly outplayed in the semi's, and the finals in Nagano. Also, Hasek is not the same goaltender he was. He is still very good, but if you remember the year he was having before he won gold, and compare it to now, you will see that what I mean. The hotest goaltender in the tournament is probably Russia's Khabibulin. But the general lack of interest in the Olympics shown by the Russians, and the absense of Mogilny and Yushkevich, would seem to proclude the Russians. The USA will have home ice advantage, and this should not be underestimated. They probably have the best set of forwards in the tournament in Modano, Roenick et all. The problem for them is the age, and lack of mobilty of Chelios, Housley

...back to men's hockey discussion...


The USA's goaltending is also suspect. Richter and Barraso are not in the same catagory as the other nation's tenders. On the other hand, it might not be very wise to count them out when playing on thier soil. Canada will be tough to beat as well, but the line seems a little low for the parity of the respective countries. Some of the best value for this event, IMO, is with Sweden. I have seen them as high as +900. Yes, they are without Forsberg, but they are still very talented. Don't forget, the playing surface will be "European size", which should favor teams with speed and passing ability. I will pass on this event, and cheer very loudly for Canada.


But the best bet, BY FAR, i have seen is in Women's hockey. There are basically only two teams in this event. Canada and the US. There was a time not long ago that this would be a cakewalk for Canada. Not anyomre. After thier upset of Canada in Nagano, the Americans have been unbeatable. In the last eight games versus Canada, the USA are undefeated. They have dominated the Canadians. Couple this with the massive home-ice advantage, and you have a team that will be very hard to beat. If I was setting a line for this event, I would have the US at about -250 or so. I found them, and bet 5 units, at +150.


Whew. If you made it this far, I am amazed. /images/glasses.gif


Hope it helps,


Adam.

I am quite surprised that you were able to find USA at such a high value for women's hockey.. I agree, that is an excellent bet..


As for Stojko, I agree that he is not the favourite, but I think as a long shot its worth it to put a small wager on.. +1500 is a pretty big upside.. I feel the line for this should be closer to about +900..

where did you find US Women's Hockey at +150? nice bet!

While people talk about how unmotivated the Russians are watch them make it a personal vendetta, each man for himself and they win the Gold. That is in my opinion the best team out there by a decent margin. My only question was with the goalie, but Khabibulin and Nabokov are about as good as it gets in the NHL right now. You either pass this one or take these guys to win because they look like they best team at the top and only a slight fall-off compared to Canada. Problem with the US and Canada is this is international rules. It isn't just the ice surface, its the international refs which tend to favor open ice teams with speed and the Russians have gobs of that. Two-way players that are the backbone of Canada and the US aren't in as much demand because this isn't NHL playoff hockey.

>That is in my opinion the best team out there by a decent margin


>You either pass this one or take these guys to win because they look like they best team at the top and only a slight fall-off compared to Canada


Which is it Bill? Are they the best by a decent margin or only slightly better than Canada?


Well, lets compare the two.


Goal. Slight advantage to the Russians with Khabibulin, although he is not playing very well right now. Nabokov was ruled ineligible because he played a game for Khazakstan. For Canada, Joeseph will start the big games. As we have seen, he can be unbeatable, or give up five goals.


Defense. Wide edge to Canada. The Russians have one defenseman that could make Team Canada, in Gonchar. Compare each team's top four (who will get the bulk of the mins) and you get Gonchar, Tverdovsky, Markov and Kasparitis up against Blake, Niedermeyer, Pronger and MacInnis.


Forwards. Slight edge to Russia. Canada has more depth, but the top Russians are deadly. However, forwards are not like defenseman. You cannot just play two lines all game. Fedorov, Pavel Bure, Kovalev, Yashin and Samsonov will be deadly, but after that they are pretty thin. The Canadians are much deeper. Their "checking line" (third line) is going to be Fleury, Peca and Nieuwendyk. Quite a step up from Afinogenov, Kvasha and Larionov.


Intangibles. Edge to Canada. Mario will be focused. Remember, this is esentially the same group that Russia used during the world championships in 2000. They could do no better than 11th. And it was in Russia!


It is very hard to guess what the Russian attitude will be. I know what the Canadian, American, and Czech attitude will be. Leave nothing out there. I will be very surprised if they contend.


But of course, I am biased. /images/glasses.gif

Depth is the problem here. If it was a team of the top 50 players, Canada wins easily. The top Russians though are superior to the top Canadians. Sorry I contradicted myself, I meant to say Russians and maybe Canadians are the top teams, but Canada is getting nothing in odds so forget about them.


Canada does have better defensemen, but I don't think the edge is that great. Markov is a rising star and Tverdosky thrives in an open ice game. They aren't quite as good, but those two aren't more than a small step behind. The fourth Russian line is not very strong, but I think in a short tournament with some easy games thrown in the first three lines will get 90% or more ice time in the big games. Then you look at those first two Russian front lines and its a sight to behold. There isn't a checking line alive that can slow down Bure, Fedorov, and Yashin out on the ice at the same time. You survive that wave and then Samsonov, Kovalev, and Zhamnov are taking their spot. Canada has a strong front line and so does the USA, but nothing as scary as that.


I agree motivation is a question, but I am taking the other route here. Everyone is taking for granted the Russians will lack it, but I beg to differ. The press has written them off as underachievers, even in Russia, and I think that will be a huge motivator. You don't have to like the coach, you don't have to care much about your country, all you have to do is go out on the ice and see the same guys you play with every night on the other bench and you get motivated to go. Last thing you want is to have those guys playing with all the glory of Olympic gold the rest of the year.

I may be wrong, but I'm almost certain that NHL referees will be working the medal round.


Russia won't win because they have Yashin. /images/smile.gif