Speeding with presto? How hard to push at the river?

[MisterKing]

Villian has respectable, semi-passive stats -- 20/6/1, with about 1.0 post-flop. The pre-flop call is easy, and I put him on some kind of ace or overpair when he calls on the turn. Where I start to get confused is the river. I overbet the pot to fake a steal, and here he is, not showing any aggression at all since the flop and suddenly I'm minraised. Of these optiosn available to you after his raise on 5th street, which are you taking?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($71.9)</font>
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($72.7)</font>
MP3 ($36.1)
CO ($45.25)
Button ($48.75)
SB ($32.35)
BB ($56.42)
UTG ($37.45)
UTG+1 ($93.8)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.75) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($4.75) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, MP2 calls $3.

River: ($10.75) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero re-raises all in to $66.9</font>, MP2 calls $36.90.

Final Pot: $92.65

[jimdmcevoy]

I'm not familiar with the lingo, what does 20/6/1 mean?

[MisterKing]

Sorry bout that-- I'm more used to the Small Stakes forum. 20/6/1 means VP$IP of 20, PFR% of 6, and AF-TOT of 1.0.

Also, that "final pot" number above is an error -- it should read $140+

[jimdmcevoy]

Well in that case, AA, TT, or maybe even 88 is a possiblity.

The thing is any two pair hand he has would seen very unlikely given his preflop, flop, and turn action. And you would think AK would just call the river, not to mention maybe bet the flop or turn. I guess there's a small outside chance of 97 suited or A/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif / A/images/graemlins/club.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif , but overall I don't think he has two pair, so I'd just call the river.

My best guess is he showed you TT

[JimmyJazz1]

Why is this an easy call preflop? At best your 50/50, and since he's a tag, you could be looking at an over pair.

[jimdmcevoy]

He wants to be looking at an overpair, so his set wins him much money.

[maldini]

those are respectable numbers. noone miniraise bluffs the river with stats like that. he wants a call. i just call if the guy is bad or good and expect to lose. he could have AA but seems unlikely.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this an easy call preflop? At best your 50/50, and since he's a tag, you could be looking at an over pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overpair schmoverpair. Grow a pair! Hero doesn't mind playing against the range of hands villian is likely raising here.

Lest we forget, this is no-limit hold'em, and if you recall, our opponent is pretty dran passive despite his decent stats otherwise. So we don't necessarily need to flop a set to seize the initiative on the flop. Tight/passive guys tend not to bet the flop when they miss, or will make an undersized bet when they do much of the time.

You suggest that "at best, you're 50/50." This may be true if we were both all in and saw a showdown, but is otherwise an untrue statement. If he's unpaired, I'm much better than 50% on the flop, and even if he is paired (and bigger), I'll catch him where I flop a set and he doesn't about 1 time in 8 or so. But enough of all that. My pre-flop call is all about the one thing you're ignoring: implied odds. Assuming I play ok postflop, and don't spew chips when I'm clearly behind, the pre-flop call is a 100% no-brainer. His raise wasn't nearly large enough to price me out of the implied odds I want.

Now, I'll admit in full that a lot of this has to do with one's individual playing style and meta-game considerations. I tend to play very loose in unraised pots in NL games, and will play small/med pairs and sooted connectors for small raises as well when the implied odds are good (e.g. the bet is small, I'm likely to be paid off if I outflop villian, and he has a large stack behind to pay me with). You might do it differently, but regardless of style, I think this is a very straightforward hand pre-flop.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
He wants to be looking at an overpair, so his set wins him much money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

[Allinlife]

no one else thinks checking flop sucked?

[StudioGlyphic]

What's his WSD%?

[StudioGlyphic]

Even when assuming he's only going to raise with the top six pairs and AK-AT suited and AK and AQ offsuit, seems you're only behind 67-33, which is what you got out of the pot just by calling.

Throw in the implied odds and yeah, it's a no-brainer.

On the flop: I prefer playing hands fast anyway, and I think his aggression factor would seem to indicate that he may or may not bet the flop. I would have preferred betting to giving him a free card.

On the river: I would have just called his raise, but prefaced it by saying "this is incredibly weak-tight of me, but..."

I'm guessing he had AK and put you on AQ?

[MisterKing]

Went to SD% is 15.79.

And by the way, he had TT... good read jim.

[StudioGlyphic]

[ QUOTE ]
Went to SD% is 15.79.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes. Definitely a call.